https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03024459/document

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics, and methods for the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

/pdf/nonstationary-weather-and-water-extremes-a-review-of-methods-4k06vzyfrl.pdf

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteorological droughts by using long-term precipitation records and different drought metrics to evaluate the role of global warming processes in trends of agricultural, hydrological and ecological drought severity over the last four decades, during which a sharp increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has been recorded. Meteorological droughts do not show any substantial changes at the global scale in at least the last 120 years, but an increase in the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts seems to emerge as a consequence of the increase in the severity of AED. Lastly, this study evaluates drought projections from earth system models and focuses on the most important aspects that need to be considered when evaluating drought processes in a changing climate, such as the use of different metrics and the uncertainty of modelling approaches. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.

/pdf/global-drought-trends-and-future-projections-1b643k90.pdf

Global drought trends and future projections

Many previous studies have estimated the carrying capacity and feasible planetary boundaries for humankind. However, less attention has been given to how we will sustainably feed 9 billion people in 2050 and beyond. Here, we review the major natural resources that limit food production and discuss possible options, measures, and strategies to sustainably feed a human population of 9 billion in 2050 and beyond. Currently, food production greatly depends on external inputs, e.g., irrigation water and fertilizers, but these approaches are not sustainable. Due to the unbalanced distribution of global natural resources and large regional differences, urbanization expansion causes important areas to face more serious arable land resource shortages. Hence, sustainably feeding 9 billion people in 2050 and beyond remains an immense challenge for humankind, and this challenge requires novel planning and better decision-making tools. Importantly, the measures and strategies employed must be region-/country-specific because of the significant differences in the socioeconomic characteristics and natural environmental carrying capacity in different parts of the world. Considering the impact of unexpected extreme events (e.g., a global pandemic and war) in the future, the food trade and translocation of goods will also face challenges, and the strategies and decision-making processes employed must consider the possible influences at both regional and global scales.

/pdf/managing-land-carrying-capacity-key-to-achieving-sustainable-23g1t6tp.pdf

Managing Land Carrying Capacity: Key to Achieving Sustainable Production Systems for Food Security

. In this study we analyze drought features at the European level over the
period 1901–2019 using three drought indices: the standardized
precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). The results based on the SPEI and scPDSI point to the fact that Central Europe (CEU) and the Mediterranean region (MED) are becoming dryer due to an increase in the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature, while North Europe (NEU) is becoming wetter. By contrast, the SPI drought does not reveal these changes in the drought variability, mainly due to the fact that the precipitation does not exhibit a significant change, especially over CEU. The SPEI12 indicates a significant increase both in the drought frequency and area over the last three decades for MED and CEU, while SPI12 does not capture these features. Thus, the performance of the SPI may be insufficient for drought analysis studies over regions where there is a strong warming signal. By analyzing the frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and the mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over CEU and MED. This, together with the projected increase in the potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events, especially for the MED and CEU regions.

/pdf/changes-in-drought-features-at-the-european-level-over-the-cytsndffb7.pdf

Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120~years

We analyzed long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851-2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI-3 and SPI-12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long-term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods The largest decreasing trends in SPI-3 (ie increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170 years, emphasising the importance of long records for assessing change The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long-term trends This suggests that long-term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone This study provides a long-term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries

/pdf/long-term-variability-and-trends-in-meteorological-droughts-2n69byntlq.pdf

Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)

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Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)