We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to U.S. bank supervisors for assessing the condition of domestic bank holding companies. We develop a model of supervisory ratings that combines supervisory and equity market information. We find that the model's forecasts anticipate supervisory rating changes by up to four quarters. Relative to simply using supervisory variables, the inclusion of equity market variables in the model does not improve forecast accuracy. However, we argue that equity market information should still be useful for forecasting supervisory ratings and should be incorporated into supervisory monitoring models.

/pdf/incorporating-equity-market-information-into-supervisory-2i5styzfmd.pdf

Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models

For market discipline to be effective, market factors such as changes in firm equity and debt values and returns, must influence firm decision making. In banking, this can occur directly via bank management or indirectly though supervisory examinations and oversight influencing bank management. In this study, we investigate whether equity market variables can provide timely information and add value to accounting models that predict changes in bank holding company (BOPEC) risk ratings over the 1988–2000 period. Using a variety of equity market indicators, the findings suggest that one-quarter lagged market data adds forecast value to lagged financial statement data and prior supervisory information in the logistic regressions. Furthermore, using extensive out-of-sample testing for the years 2001–2003, we find: (1) that multiple models estimated over different phases of the business and banking cycles are superior to a single model for forecasting BOPEC rating changes; (2) that equity data adds economically significant power in forecasting BOPEC rating upgrades and performs well for identifying no changes; (3) that for downgrades, the accounting model forecasts the best; (4) that modeling the three possible risk ratings categories simultaneously (downgrade, no change and upgrade) minimizes both Type I and Type II classification errors; and (5) that using multiple models to forecast risk ratings enhances the overall percentage of correct classifications.

Equity market information, bank holding company risk, and market discipline

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/12722.pdf

Equity market data, bank failures and market efficiency

We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk neutral indicator based on Merton's (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it can predict a bank's credit deterioration up to nine months in advance. The distance-to-default, hence, may prove useful for bank monitoring purposes.

An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets1

The trend toward incorporating information derived from financial markets into the bank supervision process has gained momentum over the past several years. This in part reflects an evolution in the thinking about how private market information can contribute to the process. In light of the evolving view of the potential contributions of market information, this paper reviews the empirical evidence relevant to the usefulness of financial market information in the bank supervision process. This paper reviews the research on what information can be gleaned from the pricing of equity and debt securities issued by banking organizations. The weight of the research leaves little room for doubt that financial market signals reflect underlying bank risk and that market evaluations of the risk of individual banking organizations are strongly correlated with supervisory findings. The evidence on the extent to which market signals can augment the information set of bank supervisors is more subtle, but overall it demonstrates that financial market signals should play a role in the bank supervision process.

/pdf/financial-market-signals-and-banking-supervision-are-current-58gunnqr57.pdf

Financial market signals and banking supervision: are current practices consistent with research findings?

This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial markets can provide useful information to supplement supervisory assessments, particularly between inspections, and point to the value of additional research to further clarify the information content of market prices and quantities.

/pdf/can-the-stock-market-tell-bank-supervisors-anything-they-don-19c3ak9qzi.pdf

Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?

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Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?