Moral Hazard and the financial crisis

Spanish Abstract: El presente estudio analiza la evolucion de los precios del mercado de vivienda ecuatoriano de manera agregada, a partir de datos de fuentes secundarias, en el periodo enero 2008-octubre 2014. Se aplico el Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), utilizado en el analisis bursatil para valorar comparativamente las acciones, pero adaptado al mercado de vivienda como la relacion Precio/Alquiler. El PER mostro que los precios de la vivienda han crecido a mayor tasa que el alquiler, lo que genera una alerta temprana sobre una posible formacion de burbuja de precios. La segundo etapa del analisis consistio en estimar un modelo econometrico, en donde se buscaba explicar el movimiento del precio a partir de variables fundamentales de oferta y demanda: salario de la construccion, costos de la construccion, rendimiento de otros activos, tasa de interes de los creditos para vivienda y el indice de actividad economica (IDEAC). El resultado del modelo mostro que la subida de precios es explicada por los fundamentales de oferta y demanda en un 93%, luego de aplicar tests de cointegracion y de estabilidad de parametros. Basados en los resultados, concluimos que no hay evidencia de que las expectativas de los agentes sobre apreciacion futura de las viviendas sea el principal factor explicativo de la subida de precios; con lo cual rechazamos la hipotesis de formacion de una burbuja inmobiliaria en el Ecuador, de manera agregada.English Abstract: This study analyzes the evolution of aggregate prices in Ecuadorian housing market, using secondary data, since January 2008 to October 2014. The Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), used to comparatively assess stock prices, was adapted to the housing market as the ratio Price/Rent. The PER showed that housing prices have increased in greater proportion than rent, generating an early warning of an eventual bubble. The second stage of the analysis was to estimate an econometric model, which sought to explain the price movement from fundamentals of supply and demand: construction wages, construction costs, return over other assets, interest rate for housing loans and the index of economic activity (IDEAC). The model results showed that the price increase is explained by the fundamentals of supply and demand by 93%, after applying cointegration and parameters stability tests. Based on these results, we conclude that there is no evidence that agents expectations of future appreciation is the main factor explaining the aggregate price rise; thus rejecting the hypothesis of formation of a housing bubble in Ecuador.

Existe Evidencia De Burbuja Inmobiliaria En El Ecuador? (Is There Evidence of a Housing Bubble in Ecuador?)

Handle everyday research tasks with reliable, citation-backed results

Your personal Research Agent to handle research tasks with citation-backed results

Popular Tasks used by Researchers

How can I help with your research?

Meet SciSpace

Get more enhanced response by uploading the PDFs you want me to reference.

No relevant PDFs in your library

SciSpace is the AI research assistant for academics. Run systematic literature reviews on 280M+ papers, and write papers with cited sources. Trusted by 1M+ students, PhDs & researchers.

SciSpace | AI for Research

Analyze PDFs

Code & Manuscripts

Funding & Grants

Literature & Patents

Medical & Clinical Data

Systematic Review

Visualize & Present

Web & Data

Build a Google Scholar-like website for your research.

Build a website

Create charts and images for your research

Create a Chart

Write a paper for submission to a journal

Draft a manuscript

Patent Search

Design eye-catching scientific posters in minutes.

Scientific Poster Generation

Systematic Literature Review

One task is running at the moment. Your messages will be shown right after.

Drag and drop or click here to browse

Loved by <highlight>1 million+</highlight> researchers

Extract a list of specific topics and their sources from unstructured text

Topics

Compare and analyze relevant papers that matches with your search

Papers

Get insights from PDFs and bookmarked papers from your library

My library

Recent searches

Try searching for:

Catch AI-generated content in scholarly and non-scholarly content

{ai} Detector

Ai Writer

Get PDF Summaries, highlighted text explanations 

Chat with PDF

Effortlessly create in-text citations and bibliographies in APA and 2,500 other formats

Citation generator

Get explanations, summaries, and answers on academic papers

Ease up your research workflow with {scispace}'s cohort of exciting AI tools

Elevate your academic writing skills and convey your ideas the way you want

Paraphraser

Explore our range of reading and writing tools

Your file is being prepared and should be ready in a few minutes. If it's a large file, it might take a bit longer. You can close this window, and we'll email you the file when it's done.

You have reached a maximum limit of <strong>{limit}</strong> columns in the table. Remove at least <strong>1</strong> column to add or create another one.

Mario Ramirez

Author Tools

Chat about Author

Papers

Existe Evidencia De Burbuja Inmobiliaria En El Ecuador? (Is There Evidence of a Housing Bubble in Ecuador?)