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The World Bank Group

Grasping the democratic peace: principles for a post-Cold War world

gap between the “outsider’s” observation and “insider’s” point of view, this book at the very least, represents a fair and open dialogue about what we’ve known about Asian television and on how Western and Asian scholars can start to integrate Asian media research. In summary, this book is an informative and approachable read for communication scholars, media practitioners, and general audiences with an interest in media and democratization in Asia.

Strong Society, Smart State: The rise of public opinion in China's Japan policy

This report examines human rights issues in the People's Republic of China (PRC), including ongoing rights abuses, legal reforms, and the development of civil society.

/pdf/human-rights-in-china-and-u-s-policy-issues-for-the-113th-4d4ad95xl7.pdf

Human Rights in China and U.S. Policy: Issues for the 113th Congress

: This paper is a critique of the assumptions underlying the 'World Model,' a computer-based model of the global ecology, designed by Jay W. Forrester and Dennis Meadows, as delineated in their publications World Dynamics (1971) and the Limits to Growth (1972). The views of Forrester and Meadows as to what constitutes a valid and useful model and what role quantification plays in the generation of an accurate model are examined. Two important modifications of the World Model are described, as are the criteria employed in each for the evaluation of Forrester's model as a useful policy tool. It is concluded that Forrester and Meadows generally overstate the case for the appropriateness of their model as a policy tool. A great deal more scientific inquiry is required before models of this kind can be considered to be reliable aids to policy-making.

/pdf/on-accuracy-precision-and-the-real-world-some-thoughts-on-26x7tpx9j1.pdf

On Accuracy, Precision and the Real World: Some Thoughts on System Dynamics as a Policy Tool,

Shaping the next century of global politics and power, United States-China relations comprise one of the most significant bilateral relationships in the world. A new era of unrestricted warfare is one example of how aggression from China could be very costly for the United States. The growth of democratic ideals within China decreases the risk of detrimental impacts according to democratic peace theory. This thesis explores a multifaceted system of relationships that regulate the diffusion of democratic ideology within China, as defined by a proxy-measure characterized as human rights by Freedom House. Relative deprivation theory coupled with an adapted Bass diffusion model are leveraged as constructs leading to the emergence of a social movement influencing China’s system of government. Non-kinetic policy strategies directed towards reforming government are assessed utilizing system dynamics. Subsets within system dynamics theory, goal dynamics incorporating soft variables, are investigated and implemented within the model as a means to evaluate interactions between actors while accounting for competing objectives. The resulting model provides a pilot operational assessment of driving factors, marrying both policy and strategic influence objectives with mathematically structured analysis as applied to this realm of research. Results suggest areas of study for future development that potentially further United States objectives within China. Thus, this research illustrates the value of applying a system dynamics approach to connect quantitative and qualitative factors in a way that provides a more thorough understanding of complex geopolitical interactions.

/pdf/a-system-dynamics-model-investigating-the-efficacy-of-non-2pfhafmvfo.pdf

A System Dynamics Model Investigating the Efficacy of Non-Kinetic Policy Strategies on the Diffusion of Democratic Ideologies in China

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A System Dynamics Model Investigating the Efficacy of Non-Kinetic Policy Strategies on the Diffusion of Democratic Ideologies in China