A Guide to Probability Theory and Application

Modelling the impacts of various thinning intensities on tree growth and survival in a mixed species eucalypt forest in central Gippsland, Victoria, Australia

In this paper, a two stage ingrowth model is presented for predicting periodic, 10 years ingrowth for pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) grown in medium to fully stocked coppice stands in north-western Spain. Data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory was used to develop the model, extracting the information from two inventories taken in 222 permanent plots. The first stage of the model predicts the probability of ingrowth occurrence, and in the second stage, the number of recruits is predicted using a conditional model. Both models were biologically realistic and presented logical behaviour. The ingrowth occurrence probability model was dependent on quadratic mean diameter and average height. The recruitment quantification model included stand density and average diameter as explanatory variables. Although the occurrence probability of ingrowth was predicted correctly in 71.7% of cases, the predictions of the number of recruitment are poorer, yielding a coefficient of determination of 0.358. The evaluation criteria included qualitative and quantitative examinations and a testing with independent data from another region. The proposed ingrowth model is the first to be developed for mediterranean oak species in Spain and is an essential feature in any stand growth system.

Ingrowth model for pyrenean oak stands in north-western Spain using continuous forest inventory data

The aim of the work presented here was to either use existing forest dynamic simulation models or calibrate a new one both within the SYMFOR framework with the purpose of examining changes in stand level basal area and functional composition in response to selective logging considering trees > 10 cm d.b.h for two areas of undisturbed Amazonian non flooded tropical forest in Brazil and one in Peru. Model biological realism was evaluated for forest in the undisturbed and selectively logged state and it was concluded that forest dynamics were realistically represented. Results of the logging simulation experiments showed that in relation to undisturbed forest simulation subject to no form of harvesting intervention there was a significant amount of change over a 90 year simulation period that was positively proportional to the intensity of logging. Areas which had in the dynamic equilibrium of undisturbed forest a greater proportion of a specific ecological guild of trees known as the light hardwoods (LHW’s) seemed to respond more favorably in terms of less deviation but only within a specific range of baseline forest composition beyond which compositional diversity became more important. These finds are in line partially with practical management experience and partiality basic systematics theory respectively. Keywords—Amazonbasin, ecological species guild, selective logging, simulation modeling.

Modeling the Effects of Type and Intensity of Selective Logging on Forests of the Amazon

Ecosystem Succession: A General Hypothesis and a Test Model of a Grassland by Luis T. Gutierrez and Willard R. Fey A quantitative analysis of dynamic ecological processes which can be used as a reference or case study in biological or ecological modeling courses and by Evaluation in Available in paperback ecologists and professionals Environmental Managing the Sense in land-use management. Planning: of a Region The numerical quantification Assessing Environby Kevin Lynch of the model approximates mental, Social, "Proposes a far-ranging the values of biomass and Economic, and Political program of activity-for the other variables typical of a ~planning and design profesgrassland ecosystem. The Trade-offs sions . . . with discussions of model is fully documented, by Donald M. McAllister the thornier issues of enviso that each assumption and Drawing on eighteen years of ronmental management, the parameter can be reviewed experience in the field, question of selecting prioriand criticized by the reader. McAllister takes a broad look ties, and the relations of sen$25.00, illus. at this value-laden and subsory quality to conservation, jective realm. His study ecology, politics, and behavAvailable in paperback addresses such issues as oral science .. . a masterWorld Dynamics quantification, the treatment piece."-AlP Journal Second Edition of equity and intangibles, the $4.95 by Jay W. Forrester representation of future gen"For any natural or physical erations, technocratic planscientist ... an important ning, citizen participation, work; for human ecologists and grand index formulaThe MIT Press and other social scientists, tions of social welfare, among Massachusetts Institute of it is essential to an underothers. It describes and critiTechnology standing of social dynamncizes eight leading evaluation Cambridge, Massachusetts

Ecosystem succession: a general hypothesis and a test model of a grassland [Colorado]

Changes in species abundance and richness, stand structure, and species responses to habitat characteristics including disturbance intensity, were investigated in 28 permanent sample plots (PSP) covering a total area of about 6.2 hectares of subtropical rainforests in north-east New South Wales, Australia. The disturbance that occurred over 36 years previously varied from unlogged (controls), through single-tree selection (light), moderate selection and repeated single-tree selection to intensive (heavy) logging. Multivariate and univariate approaches were used to investigate changes in various plant groups, including all vascular plants, regenerating species (trees and understorey species > 1.3 m in height and < 10 cm diameter at 1.3 m above the ground level (dbh)), juvenile trees (regenerating species capable of attaining at least 10 cm dbh), and trees ≥ 10 cm dbh. In addition, dynamic parameters (recruitment, growth and mortality) were estimated using hierarchical multilevel modelling and parameter estimates used to simulate behaviour of the subtropical rainforest tree species in unlogged and logged stands, both within and beyond the range of available data. Chronological post-disturbance responses and changes in species abundance and richness as well as stand structure for trees ≥ 10 cm dbh were investigated using 20 PSP in a bid to better understand rainforest post-disturbance regeneration. The results portrayed minor and gradual ecological changes in the undisturbed controls analogous with natural forest dynamics where the changes were not significant. In logged sites, initial gradual changes were followed with more rapid and significant changes. In both unlogged and logged stands, the changes proceeded through three clearly identifiable stages. The first two stages lasted between 5 and 15 years each. In the initial stage, the number of individuals decreased in species with high frequency mainly in the shade tolerant species, with little or no change in species richness. In the second stage, species abundance and richness changed due to localised species turnover, replacement and losses with very little recruitment, and the numbers of both species and individuals declined to minima. In the third stage, due to recruitment beyond the 10 cm dbh, the net loss of species and trees ≥ 10 cm dbh were halted and reversed, and species diversity and abundance began to return to pre-disturbance levels.

Modelling dynamics including recruitment, growth and mortality for sustainable management in uneven-aged mixed-species rainforests

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Modelling dynamics including recruitment, growth and mortality for sustainable management in uneven-aged mixed-species rainforests