Biodiversity loss and climate extremes — study the feedbacks

Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a ‘biodiversity conservation paradox’: biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal1,3–5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here we asked whether analysing changes in the cover of plant species could reveal previously unrecognized patterns of biodiversity change and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms. We compiled and analysed a dataset of 7,738 permanent and semi-permanent vegetation plots from Germany that were surveyed between 2 and 54 times from 1927 to 2020, in total comprising 1,794 species of vascular plants. We found that decrements in cover, averaged across all species and plots, occurred more often than increments; that the number of species that decreased in cover was higher than the number of species that increased; and that decrements were more equally distributed among losers than were gains among winners. Null model simulations confirmed that these trends do not emerge by chance, but are the consequence of species-specific negative effects of environmental changes. In the long run, these trends might result in substantial losses of species at both local and regional scales. Summarizing the changes by decade shows that the inequality in the mean change in species cover of losers and winners diverged as early as the 1960s. We conclude that changes in species cover in communities represent an important but understudied dimension of biodiversity change that should more routinely be considered in time-series analyses. Time-series data including 1,794 plant species from 7,738 vegetation plots in Germany between 1927 and 2020 reveal patterns of change in biodiversity, and suggest that more species declined than increased in abundance during this period. 

/pdf/more-losses-than-gains-during-one-century-of-plant-3nh320xy.pdf

More losses than gains during one century of plant biodiversity change in Germany

Although species are being lost at alarming rates, previous research has provided conflicting results on the extent and even direction of global biodiversity change at the local scale. Here, we assessed the ability to detect global biodiversity trends using local species richness and how it is affected by the number of monitoring sites, sampling interval (i.e. time between original survey and re-survey of the site), measurement error (error of the measurement of the local species richness), spatial grain of monitoring (a proxy for the taxa mobility) and spatial sampling biases (i.e. site-selection biases). We use PREDICTS model-based estimates as a proxy for the real-world distribution of biodiversity and randomly selected monitoring sites to calculate local species richness trends. We found that while a monitoring network with hundreds of sites could detect global change in species richness within a 30-year period, the number of sites for detecting trends doubled for a decade, increased 10-fold within three years and yearly trends were undetectable. Measurement errors had a non-linear effect on statistical power, with a 1% error reducing statistical power by a slight margin and a 5% error drastically reducing the power to reliably detect any trend. The ability to detect global change in local species richness was also related to spatial grain, making it harder to detect trends for sites sampled at smaller plot sizes. Spatial sampling biases not only reduced the ability to detect negative global biodiversity trends but sometimes yielded positive trends. We conclude that detecting accurate global biodiversity trends using local richness may simply be unfeasible with current approaches. We suggest that monitoring a representative network of sites implemented at the national level, combined with models accounting for errors and biases, can help improve our understanding of global biodiversity change. 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/ecog.06604

The undetectability of global biodiversity trends using local species richness

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Abstract Insects are declining, but the underlying drivers and differences in responses between species are still largely unclear. Despite the importance of forests, insect trends therein have received little attention. Using 10 years of standardized data (120,996 individuals; 1,805 species) from 140 sites in Germany, we show that declines occurred in most sites and species across trophic groups. In particular, declines (quantified as the correlation between year and the respective community response) were more consistent in sites with many non-native trees or a large amount of timber harvested before the onset of sampling. Correlations at the species level depended on species’ life-history. Larger species, more abundant species, and species of higher trophic level declined most, while herbivores increased. This suggests potential shifts in food webs possibly affecting ecosystem functioning. A targeted management, including promoting more natural tree species composition and partially reduced harvesting, can contribute to mitigating declines. 

/pdf/insect-decline-in-forests-depends-on-species-traits-and-may-3vclso2n.pdf

Insect decline in forests depends on species’ traits and may be mitigated by management

Abstract Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resurvey data from Germany covering almost 100 years. We show the distribution of the plot data in space, time and across habitat types of the European Nature Information System (EUNIS). In addition, we include metadata on geographic location, plot size and vegetation structure. The data allow temporal biodiversity change to be assessed at the community scale, reaching back further into the past than most comparable data yet available. They also enable tracking changes in the incidence and distribution of individual species across Germany. In summary, the data come at a level of detail that holds promise for broadening our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind plant diversity change over the last century. 

/pdf/resurveygermany-vegetation-plot-time-series-over-the-past-26jfwjc0.pdf

ReSurveyGermany: Vegetation-plot time-series over the past hundred years in Germany

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More losses than gains during one century of plant biodiversity change in Germany

ReSurveyGermany: Vegetation-plot time-series over the past hundred years in Germany