Astronomical data analysis software and systems

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) and other cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of six gravitationally lensed quasars with measured time delays. All lenses except the first are analyzed blindly with respect to the cosmological parameters. In a flat $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, we find $H_{0} = 73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$, a 2.4% precision measurement, in agreement with local measurements of $H_{0}$ from type Ia supernovae calibrated by the distance ladder, but in $3.1\sigma$ tension with $Planck$ observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). This method is completely independent of both the supernovae and CMB analyses. A combination of time-delay cosmography and the distance ladder results is in $5.3\sigma$ tension with $Planck$ CMB determinations of $H_{0}$ in flat $\Lambda$CDM. We compute Bayes factors to verify that all lenses give statistically consistent results, showing that we are not underestimating our uncertainties and are able to control our systematics. We explore extensions to flat $\Lambda$CDM using constraints from time-delay cosmography alone, as well as combinations with other cosmological probes, including CMB observations from $Planck$, baryon acoustic oscillations, and type Ia supernovae. Time-delay cosmography improves the precision of the other probes, demonstrating the strong complementarity. Allowing for spatial curvature does not resolve the tension with $Planck$. Using the distance constraints from time-delay cosmography to anchor the type Ia supernova distance scale, we reduce the sensitivity of our $H_0$ inference to cosmological model assumptions. For six different cosmological models, our combined inference on $H_{0}$ ranges from $\sim73$-$78~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, which is consistent with the local distance ladder constraints.

/pdf/h0licow-xiii-a-2-4-per-cent-measurement-of-h0-from-lensed-1xq5gmtgir.pdf

H0LiCOW – XIII. A 2.4 per cent measurement of H0 from lensed quasars: 5.3σ tension between early- and late-Universe probes

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of km s−1 Mpc−1 , describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H 0 . We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H 0 . Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured km s−1 Mpc−1 . Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured km s−1 Mpc−1 . This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H 0 . While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H 0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H 0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.

/pdf/tdcosmo-iv-hierarchical-time-delay-cosmography-joint-446jyvz1g5.pdf

TDCOSMO IV: Hierarchical time-delay cosmography -- joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

Abstract The detection of the accelerated expansion of the Universe has been one of the major breakthroughs in modern cosmology. Several cosmological probes (Cosmic Microwave Background, Supernovae Type Ia, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations) have been studied in depth to better understand the nature of the mechanism driving this acceleration, and they are being currently pushed to their limits, obtaining remarkable constraints that allowed us to shape the standard cosmological model. In parallel to that, however, the percent precision achieved has recently revealed apparent tensions between measurements obtained from different methods. These are either indicating some unaccounted systematic effects, or are pointing toward new physics. Following the development of CMB, SNe, and BAO cosmology, it is critical to extend our selection of cosmological probes. Novel probes can be exploited to validate results, control or mitigate systematic effects, and, most importantly, to increase the accuracy and robustness of our results. This review is meant to provide a state-of-art benchmark of the latest advances in emerging “beyond-standard” cosmological probes. We present how several different methods can become a key resource for observational cosmology. In particular, we review cosmic chronometers, quasars, gamma-ray bursts, standard sirens, lensing time-delay with galaxies and clusters, cosmic voids, neutral hydrogen intensity mapping, surface brightness fluctuations, stellar ages of the oldest objects, secular redshift drift, and clustering of standard candles. The review describes the method, systematics, and results of each probe in a homogeneous way, giving the reader a clear picture of the available innovative methods that have been introduced in recent years and how to apply them. The review also discusses the potential synergies and complementarities between the various probes, exploring how they will contribute to the future of modern cosmology. 

/pdf/unveiling-the-universe-with-emerging-cosmological-probes-3rps7k9o.pdf

Unveiling the Universe with emerging cosmological probes

Persistent tension between low-redshift observations and the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation (CMB), in terms of two fundamental distance scales set by the sound horizon $r_d$ and the Hubble constant $H_0$, suggests new physics beyond the Standard Model or residual systematics. We examine recently updated distance calibrations from Cepheids, gravitational lensing time-delay observations, and the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. Calibrating the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Type Ia supernovae with combinations of the distance indicators, we obtain a joint and self-consistent measurement of $H_0$ and $r_d$ at low redshift, independent of cosmological models and CMB inference. In an attempt to alleviate the tension between late-time and CMB-based measurements, we consider four extensions of the standard $\Lambda$CDM model. The sound horizon from our different measurements is $r_d=(137\pm3^{stat.}\pm2^{syst.})$~Mpc. Depending on the adopted distance indicators, the $combined$ tension in $H_0$ and $r_d$ ranges between 2.3 and 5.1 $\sigma$. We find that modifications of $\Lambda$CDM that change the physics after recombination fail to solve the problem, for the reason that they only resolve the tension in $H_0$, while the tension in $r_d$ remains unchanged. Pre-recombination extensions (with early dark energy or the effective number of neutrinos $\rm{N}_{\rm{eff}}=3.24 \pm 0.16$) are allowed by the data, unless the calibration from Cepheids is included. Results from time-delay lenses are consistent with those from distance-ladder calibrations and point to a discrepancy between absolute distance scales measured from the CMB (assuming the standard cosmological model) and late-time observations. New proposals to resolve this tension should be examined with respect to reconciling not only the Hubble constant but also the sound horizon derived from the CMB and other cosmological probes.

Cosmic dissonance: new physics or systematics behind a short sound horizon?

Swiss National Science FoundationSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF); European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeEuropean Research Council (ERC) [787886]; World Premier International Research Center Initiative (WPI Initiative), MEXT, JapanMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Packard FoundationThe David & Lucile Packard Foundation; NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-1450141, AST-1312329]; Max Planck Society through the Max Planck Research Group; EACOA Fellowship - East Asia Core Observatories Association, Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics; National Astronomical Observatory of JapanNational Institutes of Natural Sciences (NINS) - Japan; National Astronomical Observatories of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute; DFG cluster of excellence 'Origin and Structure of the Universe'German Research Foundation (DFG); NASA through STSCI grant [HSTGO-15320]; U.S. Department of EnergyUnited States Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-AC02-76SF00515]; NWO-VICI career grant [639.043.308]; European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere under ESO programme(s) [091.A-0642(A), 074.A-0302(A), 60.A-9306(A), 097.A-0454(A), 090.A-0531(A)]; U.S. Department of EnergyUnited States Department of Energy (DOE); U.S. National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF); Ministry of Science and Education of SpainMinistry of Education and Science, Spain; Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); Higher Education Funding Council for EnglandHigher Education Funding Council for England; National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago; Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State UniversityOhio State University; Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas AM University; Financiadora de Estudos e ProjetosCiencia Tecnologia e Inovacao (FINEP); Fundacao Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnologicoNational Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao; Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftGerman Research Foundation (DFG); Argonne National LaboratoryUnited States Department of Energy (DOE)University of Chicago; University of California at Santa Cruz; University of CambridgeUniversity of Cambridge; Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas-Madrid; University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago; University College London; DES-Brazil Consortium; University of Edinburgh; Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichETH Zurich; Fermi National Accelerator LaboratoryUnited States Department of Energy (DOE)University of Chicago; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Institut de Ciencies de l'Espai (IEEC/CSIC); Institut de Fisica d'Altes Energies; Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryUnited States Department of Energy (DOE); Ludwig-Maximilians Universitat Munchen; associated Excellence Cluster Universe; University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan System; National Optical Astronomy ObservatoryNational Science Foundation (NSF)NSF - Directorate for Mathematical & Physical Sciences (MPS); University of Nottingham; Ohio State UniversityOhio State University; University of Pennsylvania; University of Portsmouth; SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory; Stanford UniversityStanford University; University of Sussex; Texas AM University; OzDES Membership Consortium; National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-1138766, AST-1536171]; MINECO [AYA2015-71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV-20160597, MDM-2015-0509]; ERDF funds from the European Union; CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya; European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013); ERCEuropean Research Council (ERC) [240672, 291329, 306478]; Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq)National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [465376/2014-2]; U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy PhysicsUnited States Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-AC02-07CH11359]; NASANational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) [NAS 5-26555]; NASA through Space Telescope Science InstituteSpace Telescope Science Institute [12889]; National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF)

/pdf/h0licow-x-spectroscopic-imaging-survey-and-galaxy-group-1n9a40r19y.pdf

H0LiCOW – X. Spectroscopic/imaging survey and galaxy-group identification around the strong gravitational lens system WFI 2033−4723

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H0LiCOW – X. Spectroscopic/imaging survey and galaxy-group identification around the strong gravitational lens system WFI 2033−4723