Enclosed is a copy of the Board of Governors’ Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981. The Semiannual Agenda provides you with information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months, and is divided into three parts: (1) regulatory matters that the Board had considered during the previous six months on which final action has been taken; (2) regulatory matters that have been proposed for public comment and that require further Board consideration; and (3) regulatory matters that the Board may consider over the next six months.

Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について

The paper examines the linkages between housing markets and the business cycle in OECD countries, focusing on how differences in the degree of resilience to economic shocks can be affected by the structural characteristics of housing and mortgage markets. The paper focuses specifically on: the transmission channel from housing wealth to consumption and on the factors behind house price variability, which help to determine whether the housing sector plays a stabilising role or not. Estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth are presented for ten OECD countries, where it is found that the strongest impact on consumption is in countries that have large, efficient and responsive mortgage markets. Particularly important in this regard is the degree of mortgage market “completeness” -- i.e. the extent to which the market is able to offer a variety of products and to serve a broad range of potential borrowers -- in particular, the extent to which they provide ...

/pdf/housing-markets-wealth-and-the-business-cycle-1yg9ztmhrn.pdf

Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring 'wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption 'habits') to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

How Large are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring “wealth effects” on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption “habits”) to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.

/pdf/how-large-are-housing-and-financial-wealth-effects-a-new-1pri1v8zef.pdf

How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

Recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption.

/pdf/why-does-private-consumption-rise-after-a-government-5bo5hcm7g4.pdf

Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock

L’estimation de la production potentielle et de l’ecart de production – soit la difference entre la production effective et potentielle – est importante pour la conduite appropriee de la politique monetaire. Cependant, la production potentielle n’etant pas observable, la mesure et l’interpretation de cette variable, et par consequent de l’ecart de production, sont entourees d’incertitude. Il est donc essentiel de continuellement developper et ameliorer les modeles existants, d’innover en mettant a l’essai de nouvelles methodes et d’incorporer celles-ci dans l’analyse de la production potentielle et de l’ecart de production. C’est dans cette optique qu’est d’abord proposee une evaluation du filtre multivarie elargi (EMVF) dont la Banque se sert depuis la fin des annees 1990 pour etablir une mesure de reference de l’ecart de production. Ce filtre comporte plusieurs lacunes qu’il faut combler. Par consequent, une version modifiee du filtre multivarie elargi comprenant une revision de l’information exploitee pour estimer la production potentielle est exposee. De plus, une methode nouvelle procure une analyse distincte de la croissance tendancielle du facteur travail et de la croissance tendancielle de la productivite du travail, et prend en compte certains changements structurels a long terme de l’economie. Meme si aucune de ces approches n’est parfaite, et bien qu’elles presentent toutes les deux des lacunes, elles constituent un progres par rapport a la methode de mesure habituelle de l’ecart de production. L’etude decrit aussi de quelle maniere le filtre elargi, le cadre integre et l’information de l’enquete sur les perspectives des entreprises menee par la Banque sont utilises avec d’autres sources pour estimer l’ecart de production actuel et le taux de croissance future de la production potentielle.

/pdf/measuring-potential-output-at-the-bank-of-canada-the-3gjtendwml.pdf

Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework

During the nineties, stock prices increased remarkably. The number of households owning stocks also rose considerably. If stock market wealth has an effect on consumers' decisions, then the rise in equity prices could have contributed to the growth in consumption in recent years.

/pdf/les-effets-reels-du-cours-des-actions-sur-la-consommation-2k0pc8k6ju.pdf

Les effets réels du cours des actions sur la consommation

Technological innovations in the financial industry pose major problems for the measurement of monetary aggregates. The authors describe work on a new measure of money that has a more satisfactory means of identifying and removing the effects of financial innovations.

/pdf/dynamic-factor-analysis-for-measuring-money-4xr2jy9xxy.pdf

Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money

Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations

This article reviews recent work that uses principal-component analysis to extract information common to indicators from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The authors use correlation analysis and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise to assess and compare the information content of the principal component with that of responses to key individual survey questions on growth in real gross domestic product and in real business investment. Results suggest that summarizing the common movements among BOS indicators may provide useful information for forecasting near-term growth in business investment. For growth in real gross domestic product, however, the survey’s balance of opinion on future sales growth appears to be more informative.

/pdf/extracting-information-from-the-business-outlook-survey-a-3x56bzseve.pdf

Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey: A Principal-Component Approach

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