This paper tests whether innovations in macroeconomic variables are risks that are rewarded in the stock market. Financial theory suggests that the following macroeconomic variables should systematically affect stock market returns: the spread between long and short interest rates, expected and unexpected inflation, industrial production, and the spread between high- and low-grade bonds. We find that these sources of risk are significantly priced. Furthermore, neither the market portfolio nor aggregate consumption are priced separately. We also find that oil price risk is not separately rewarded in the stock market.

Economic Forces and the Stock Market

https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~jgraham/website/SurveyPaper.PDF

The theory and practice of corporate finance: Evidence from the field

This paper surveys capital structure theories based on agency costs, asymmetric information, product/input market interactions, and corporate control considerations (but excluding tax-based theories). For each type of model, a brief overview of the papers surveyed and their relation to each other is provided. The central papers are described in some detail, and their results are summarized and followed by a discussion of related extensions. Each section concludes with a summary of the main implications of the models surveyed in the section. Finally, these results are collected and compared to the available evidence. Suggestions for future research are provided.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03753.x

The Theory of Capital Structure

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We survey 392 CFOs about the cost of capital, capital budgeting, and capital structure. Large firms rely heavily on net present value techniques and the capital asset pricing model, while small firms are relatively likely to use the payback criterion. Older executives without an MBA are more likely to rely on payback than are younger executives with an MBA. Surprisingly, most companies use a single company-wide discount rate to evaluate a project in a new industry and country. In addition to market risk, firms also frequently adjust cash flows or discount rates for interest rate risk, exchange rate risk, business cycle risk, and inflation risk. Few firms adjust discount rates or cash flows for book-to-market, distress, or momentum risks. A majority of large firms have a tight or somewhat tight target debt ratio, in contrast to only one-third of small firms. Executives rely heavily on informal rules when choosing capital structure. The most important factors affecting debt policy are maintaining financial flexibility and having a good credit rating. When issuing equity, respondents are concerned about earnings per share dilution and recent stock price appreciation. We find some support for the pecking-order and trade-off capital structure hypotheses but little evidence that executives are concerned about asset substitution, asymmetric information, transactions costs, free cash flows, or personal taxes. If CFOs behave according to these deeper hypotheses, they apparently do so unknowingly.

The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field

Financial inclusion and innovation in Africa

Africa is a continent made up of 53 countries. The continent is economically and culturally diverse, with different regional economic blocs. The financial systems in these countries are as diverse as the countries. Reviewing the financial systems of such a heterogeneous group of countries presents a challenge. Therefore, to make the review more concise, we categorize the countries along geographic lines into four groups, namely, Arab North Africa, West Africa, East and Central Africa, and Southern Africa.1 This review covers, among other things, a brief review of the economies, central banks, deposit-taking banks, non-bank institutions, such as the stock markets, fixed income markets, and microfinance institutions in Africa. In this section, we present an executive summary of the African financial systems, highlighting some of the investment opportunities that exist, and then proceed with an in-depth review of the current state of the financial systems of the various sub-groups in Africa. In section II, we review the financial systems in North Africa. The financial systems in West Africa are reviewed in Section III, while those in Central and East Africa are reviewed in Section IV. In Section V, we examine the financial systems in Southern Africa. We conclude with a brief discussion of the risks that potential investors should be concerned about in Section VI.

African Financial Systems: A Review

Most discussions of corporate capital structure have been set in the context of a complete capital market. In this paper we study the determinants of capital structure for the incomplete markets case, where incompleteness manifests itself in the form of divergent borrowing and lending rates. We argue that firms have a natural incentive to tailor their financing choices so as to narrow such divergences. While this implies an optimal capital structure for firms in the aggregate, however, competition will drive out profits, and the capital structure of any individual firm may still be a matter of indifference. Firms' incentive to try to complete the market provides a rationale for corporate finance even in a taxless environment. This incentive may also shed light on such related issues as corporate mergers, the use of complex securities and the role of financial intermediaries.

Capital Structure Equilibrium under Incomplete Market Conditions

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Natural Resources and Capital Flight: A Role for Policy?

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