The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone ‘potential intensity’—a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that—per unit local sea surface temperature change—the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.

Effect of remote sea surface temperature change in tropical cyclone potential intensity

Stable isotope record of super typhoon Lekima (2019)

RATIONALE The first row transition metals Cu, Ni, and Co show a strong binding affinity to natural organic matter. Compared to dissolved elements and stable water isotopes, they may be transported rapidly through the soil and host rock into caves in response to infiltration events. This study aims to assess the potential of transition metal ratios as indicators for infiltration changes in response to seasonal and/or event-based rainfall variation.


METHODS
We developed a protocol to analyze Cu, Ni, and Co in cave drip water using collision cell ICP-QMS without extensive sample pre-treatment. The high Ca matrix leads to significant isobaric interferences on all isotope masses. Our method includes a correction of these matrix effects and yields results with comparable accuracy and reproducibility as other published methods. We applied this protocol to drip water samples from Larga Cave (Puerto Rico) covering at least two full annual cycles between 2014 and 2019 on a bi-monthly scale.


RESULTS
The analysis of external reference materials yielded a reproducibility between 4.7% and 9.2% (RSD), validating the accuracy of the matrix correction method. The limit of detection is <0.04 ppb for Cu, <0.02ppb for Ni and <0.008 ppb for Co. The analysis of Larga Cave drip water reveals pronounced changes of several orders of magnitude in all Element (El) to Ca, Cu/Ni and Cu/Co ratios in response to seasonal infiltration changes. In addition, we observe a partly even stronger response after major tropical storms and heavy precipitation events of the period of record, e.g. tropical storm "Bertha" (2014) and the Cat. 5 hurricanes "Irma" and "Maria" (both 2017).


CONCLUSIONS
Transition metal ratios can be accurately measured in high Ca matrix cave drip waters. At our tropical site, these are promising tracers of infiltration changes in response to changes in rainfall amount, providing a first step towards tropical cyclone reconstruction using trace elements in speleothems.

The impact of seasonal and event-based infiltration on transition metals (Cu, Ni, Co) in tropical cave drip water.

Typhoon rainstorms have induced massive landslides in the southeast coastal areas of China, causing serious property losses and casualties. Based on field rainfall data during various typhoons in Fujian Province of China, finite element modelling is carried out to simulate the safety state of slope subjected to typhoon rainstorm. Considering the coupling effect of seepage field and stress field, the transient variation characteristics of seepage field and the equivalent slope plastic zone are revealed. Based on the grading of safety factor, the slope safety state is divided into four grades. Numerical results indicate that rainfall intensity, total rainfall and rainfall duration have great impact on the slope safety. This study is expected to provide some reference value for the early safety warning and emergency management of slopes under extreme conditions such as typhoon rainstorm.

Study on the Failure Mechanism, Safety Grading and Rainfall Threshold of Landslide Caused by Typhoon Rainstorm

Double-plunge structure of the East Asian summer monsoon during Heinrich stadial 1 recorded in Xianyun Cave, southeastern China

Precisely dated high‐resolution speleothems may record past typhoon events, however, the state of the art cave monitoring is a prerequisite to identify suitable stalagmites for the reconstruction of such events. With this motivation, we examined the isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O and d‐excess values) of rainfall, outside river, cave drip water, and an underground river in the Xianyun cave system, located in southeastern China. Monthly to bi‐monthly monitoring of environmental and isotopic conditions was conducted for 1 year, from December 2018 to December 2019, including a typhoon event (August 24, 2019 to August 26, 2019), called Bailu. The δ¹⁸O of rainfall samples over the cave and outside river water ranged from −9.7‰ to −1.9‰ and −8.2‰ to −6.3‰, respectively, while the δ¹⁸O of Typhoon Bailu rainfall and instantaneous outside river water ranged from −19.6‰ to −6.3‰ and −10.4‰ to −7.7‰, respectively. Typhoon Bailu‐induced rainfall showed distinctly negative δ¹⁸O values as compared to those of the monthly and bi‐monthly rainfall, exhibiting a three‐stage inverted U‐shaped variation characteristic. Four drip water monitoring sites inside the cave revealed low variations during the studied period with average values of −7.8‰, −8.0‰, −8.0‰, and −8.1‰. However, during the typhoon, the drip water δ¹⁸O values exhibited similar characteristic as outside rainfall but with just 0.2‰ negative deviation owing to precipitation amount and drip water source reservoir. The integration of rainfall amount with drip water source reservoir determines the degree to which a typhoon isotopic signature gets diluted during epikarst infiltration. This study provides the first instrumental evidence of typhoon signal in karst system in southeastern China. Our results imply that the δ¹⁸O of drip water in Xianyun cave can instantaneously respond to typhoon rainfall. However, the 0.2‰ shift in drip water δ¹⁸O is difficult to be recorded by speleothems. We suggest multi‐year monitoring to ascertain fully if the stalagmites could be used as paleotyphoon proxy.

Typhoon rainfall impact on drip water δ18O in Xianyun cave, Southeast China

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Typhoon rainfall impact on drip water δ18O in Xianyun cave, Southeast China