Many models for the spread of infectious diseases in populations have been analyzed mathematically and applied to specific diseases. Threshold theorems involving the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$, the contact number $\sigma$, and the replacement number $R$ are reviewed for the classic SIR epidemic and endemic models. Similar results with new expressions for $R_{0}$ are obtained for MSEIR and SEIR endemic models with either continuous age or age groups. Values of $R_{0}$ and $\sigma$ are estimated for various diseases including measles in Niger and pertussis in the United States. Previous models with age structure, heterogeneity, and spatial structure are surveyed.

https://epubs.siam.org/doi/pdf/10.1137/S0036144500371907

The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases

https://ifisc.uib-csic.es/~jramasco/text/jocs10.pdf

Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

Humans have witnessed three deadly pandemics so far in the twenty-first century which are associated with novel coronaviruses: SARS, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and COVID-19. All of these viruses, which are responsible for causing acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs), are highly contagious in nature and/or have caused high mortalities. The recently emerged COVID-19 disease is a highly transmittable viral infection caused by another zoonotic novel coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Similar to the other two coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 is also likely to have originated from bats, which have been serving as established reservoirs for various pathogenic coronaviruses. Although, it is still unknown how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from bats to humans, the rapid human-to-human transmission has been confirmed widely. The disease first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread across the globe, infected 48,539,872 people, and caused 1,232,791 deaths in 215 countries, and the infection is still spreading at the time of manuscript preparation. So far, there is no definite line of treatment which has been approved or vaccine which is available. However, different types of potential vaccines and therapeutics have been evaluated and/or are under clinical trials against COVID-19. In this review, we summarize different types of acute respiratory diseases and briefly discuss earlier outbreaks of coronaviruses and compare their occurrence and pathogenicity with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Various epidemiological aspects of COVID-19 such as mode of spread, death rate, doubling time, etc., have been discussed in detail. Apart from this, different technical issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic including use of masks and other socio-economic problems associated with the pandemic have also been summarized. Additionally, we have reviewed various aspects of patient management strategies including mechanism of action, available diagnostic tools, etc., and also discussed different strategies for the development of effective vaccines and therapeutic combinations to deal with this viral outbreak. Overall, by the inclusion of various references, this review covers, in detail, the most important aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

/pdf/covid-19-a-global-challenge-with-old-history-epidemiology-31vwpiw6qp.pdf

COVID-19: A Global Challenge with Old History, Epidemiology and Progress So Far.

Recent progress in the laboratory has been a result of improvements in rapid analytical techniques. An update of the applications of lateral flow tests (also called immunochromatographic assay or test strip) is presented in this review manuscrit. We emphasized the description of this technology in the detection of a variety of biological agents and chemical contaminants (e.g. veterinary drugs, toxins and pesticides). It includes outstanding data, such as sample treatment, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and reproducibility. Lateral flow tests provide advantages in simplicity and rapidity when compared to the conventional detection methods.

/pdf/development-and-application-of-lateral-flow-test-strip-4zkvvxlcz5.pdf

Development and application of lateral flow test strip technology for detection of infectious agents and chemical contaminants: a review

Background. Little is known about the community psychological and behavioral responses to influenza pandemics. Methods. Using random digit dialing, we sampled 12,965 Hong Kong residents in 13 cross-sectional telephone surveys between April and November 2009, covering the entire first wave of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. We examined trends in anxiety, risk perception, knowledge on modes of transmission, and preventive behaviors. Results. Respondents reported low anxiety levels throughout the epidemic. Perceived susceptibility to infection and perceived severity of H1N1 were initially high but declined early in the epidemic and remained stable thereafter. As the epidemic grew, knowledge on modes of transmission did not improve, the adoption of hygiene measures and use of face masks did not change, and social distancing declined. Greater anxiety was associated with lower reported use of hygiene measures but greater social distancing. Knowledge that H1N1 could be spread by indirect contact was associated with greater use of hygiene measures and social distancing. Conclusions. The lack of substantial change in preventive measures or knowledge about the modes of H1N1 transmission in the general population suggests that community mitigation measures played little role in mitigating the impact of the first wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in Hong Kong.

/pdf/community-psychological-and-behavioral-responses-through-the-akzxds65uc.pdf

Community psychological and behavioral responses through the first wave of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in Hong Kong

The 1997 Hong Kong outbreak of an avian influenzalike virus, with 18 proven human cases, many severe or fatal, highlighted the challenges of novel influenza viruses. Lessons from this episode can improve international and national planning for influenza pandemics in seven areas: expanded international commitment to first responses to pandemic threats; surveillance for influenza in key densely populated areas with large live-animal markets; new, economical diagnostic tests not based on eggs; contingency procedures for diagnostic work with highly pathogenic viruses where biocontainment laboratories do not exist; ability of health facilities in developing nations to communicate electronically, nationally and internationally; licenses for new vaccine production methods; and improved equity in supply of pharmaceutical products, as well as availability of basic health services, during a global influenza crisis. The Hong Kong epidemic also underscores the need for national committees and country-specific pandemic plans.

/pdf/the-next-influenza-pandemic-lessons-from-hong-kong-1997-r4szro14ms.pdf

The next influenza pandemic: lessons from Hong Kong, 1997.

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The next influenza pandemic: lessons from Hong Kong, 1997.