https://www.wsl.ch/staff/niklaus.zimmermann/papers/ecomod135_147.pdf

Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations. At an intensively studied site within the region, we quantified that after 15 months of depleted soil water content, >90% of the dominant, overstory tree species (Pinus edulis, a pinon) died. The die-off was reflected in changes in a remotely sensed index of vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), not only at the intensively studied site but also across the region, extending over 12,000 km2 or more; aerial and field surveys confirmed the general extent of the die-off. Notably, the recent drought was warmer than the previous subcontinental drought of the 1950s. The limited, available observations suggest that die-off from the recent drought was more extensive than that from the previous drought, extending into wetter sites within the tree species' distribution. Our results quantify a trigger leading to rapid, drought-induced die-off of overstory woody plants at subcontinental scale and highlight the potential for such die-off to be more severe and extensive for future global-change-type drought under warmer conditions.

/pdf/regional-vegetation-die-off-in-response-to-global-change-3qeioea6kl.pdf

Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought

The timing of life history traits is central to lifetime fitness and nowhere is this more evident or well studied as in the phenology of flowering in governing plant reproductive success. Recent changes in the timing of environmental events attributable to climate change, such as the date of snowmelt at high altitudes, which initiates the growing season, have had important repercussions for some common perennial herbaceous wildflower species. The phenology of flowering at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (Colorado, USA) is strongly influenced by date of snowmelt, which makes this site ideal for examining phenological responses to climate change. Flower buds of Delphinium barbeyi, Erigeron speciosus, and Helianthella quinquenervis are sensitive to frost, and the earlier beginning of the growing season in recent years has exposed them to more frequent mid-June frost kills. From 1992 to 1998, on average 36.1% of Helianthella buds were frosted, but for 1999-2006 the mean is 73.9%; in only one year since 1998 have plants escaped all frost damage. For all three of these perennial species, there is a significant relationship between the date of snowmelt and the abundance of flowering that summer. Greater snowpack results in later snowmelt, later beginning of the growing season, and less frost mortality of buds. Microhabitat differences in snow accumulation, snowmelt patterns, and cold air drainage during frost events can be significant; an elevation difference of only 12 m between two plots resulted in a temperature difference of almost 28C in 2006 and a difference of 37% in frost damage to buds. The loss of flowers and therefore seeds can reduce recruitment in these plant populations, and affect pollinators, herbivores, and seed predators that previously relied on them. Other plant species in this environment are similarly susceptible to frost damage so the negative effects for recruitment and for consumers dependent on flowers and seeds could be widespread. These findings point out the paradox of increased frost damage in the face of global warming, provide important insights into the adaptive significance of phenology, and have general implications for flowering plants throughout the region and anywhere climate change is having similar impacts.

/pdf/effects-of-climate-change-on-phenology-frost-damage-and-2bia8ae101.pdf

Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessmentin mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift – area, physiography – changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1–2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: A review

Potential ecological impacts of climate change in the Alps and Fennoscandian mountains. An annex to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change second assessment report, Working Group II-C (Impacts of climate change on mountain regions)

Impacts of climate change on mountain regions

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Potential ecological impacts of climate change in the Alps and Fennoscandian mountains. An annex to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change second assessment report, Working Group II-C (Impacts of climate change on mountain regions)

Impacts of climate change on mountain regions