This paper is a review and assessment of the contributions made by “activity-based approaches” to the understanding and forecasting of travel behavior. In their brief history of approximately a decade, activity-based analyses have received extensive interest. This work has led to an accumulation of empirical evidence and new insights and has made substantial contributions toward the better understanding of travel behavior. However, practical applications of the approach in transportation planning and policy development have been scarce. Based on an analysis of the inherent characteristics of the activity-based approach, a review of recent (after the 1981 Oxford conference) developments, and a synthesis of the findings from past empirical studies, this study attempts to evaluate the contribution made by activity-based analyses and determine the reasons for the limited practical application. Recommendations are made for the future development of activity-based analysis as a science of travel behavior and as a tool in the practice of transportation planning and policy development.

An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis

In this paper we investigate the functional form of distance decay for commuting flows between municipalities in Denmark. Our inference is based on a single equation that includes variables to capture the effect of spatial structure. Special attention is given to a proper estimation method: we estimate the distance-decay parameters by nonlinear weighted least-squares with balancing factors. It appears that neither an exponential nor a power distance-decay function fits the data well. Using a spline regression we find a cost elasticity of – 4 for distances around 20 km and a much smaller value for shorter and longer distances. It appears that the logarithm of distance decay can be described adequately as a (downward) logistic function of log cost.

/pdf/exponential-or-power-distance-decay-for-commuting-an-37faoxynwa.pdf

Exponential or power distance-decay for commuting? An alternative specification

In this paper we determine the effect of transport cost on commuting flows, on the basis of an analysis of home-to-work journeys between municipalities in Denmark. Special attention is given to a proper estimation method and the form of the distance-decay function. It appears that neither an exponential nor a power distance-decay function fits the data well. The specification of log trips as a (downwards) logistic function of log cost results in a better fit. We find that the cost elasticity of commuting reaches a value of –4 for distances around 24 km, while it is close to 0 for both very short and very long distances. Finally, we demonstrate that the choice of functional form for distance-decay can make an important difference for predictions concerning the effect of infrastructure improvements on commuting flows.

Reilly's Law of Retail Gravitation ranks among the classics of marketing geography. In this paper an examination of the evolution of Reilly's law is made, the contemporaneous wheel of retailing the...

The Wheel of Retail Gravitation

625 Estimation of Alonso’s Theory of Movements for Commuting William Alonso published his Theory of Movements in 1978. In this Spatial Interaction Model, the flows depend on the spatial positions of the origin and the destination regions. In the context of commuting, residential and employment regions interact through accessibility, affecting the whole system of commuting flows. This systemic model is also known as the Transportation Model with Elastic Constraints. This thesis presents a method to estimate the underlying parameters of the model, which is applied to analyze commuting flows between municipalities in Denmark. The main message of this thesis is that the interdependence between origin and destination regions has consequences for the choice of econometric methods.

/pdf/estimation-of-alonso-s-theory-of-movements-for-commuting-4rps3amix4.pdf

Estimation of Alonso's Theory of Movements for Commuting

A multitrip spatial-interaction pattern is defined in the paper as the system of movements where every movement is composed of a chain of trips linking different places in space. A spatial interaction model with the distance decay function based on a random variable distribution is derived to describe this pattern.

A statistical model of a multitrip spatial-interaction pattern

A geometric distribution is used as the distance decay function in a spatial-interaction model, and the model based on this distribution is shown to have a production-constrained form.

A Spatial Interaction Model with the Distance Decay Function Based on a Random Variable Distribution

An analogy to the so-called Schrodinger wave equation is made to derive the familiar model of spatial interaction with the distance decay function in the form of a random variable distribution.

Spatial Interaction Modelling: A Statistical Approach Based on the Concept of the Wave Equation

In this paper a new derivation of the intervening opportunities model is proposed that uses Bose–Einstein statistics.

A New Derivation of the Intervening Opportunities Model

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Papers

A statistical model of a multitrip spatial-interaction pattern

A Spatial Interaction Model with the Distance Decay Function Based on a Random Variable Distribution

Spatial Interaction Modelling: A Statistical Approach Based on the Concept of the Wave Equation

A New Derivation of the Intervening Opportunities Model