Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning. Temperature changes as a result of climate change are expected to impact electric capacity and investment. Here, the authors show that in the United States under socioeconomic pathway 2 and RCP 8.5 mean temperature rises will drive increased electricity demand (0.5-8%) by 2100, along increases in capital investments by 3-22%.

/pdf/impacts-of-long-term-temperature-change-and-variability-on-ou1obyyz4q.pdf

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments.

Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research

Author(s): Szinai, JK; Deshmukh, R; Kammen, DM; Jones, AD | Abstract: Electricity and water systems are inextricably linked through water demands for energy generation, and through energy demands for using, moving, and treating water and wastewater. Climate change may stress these interdependencies, together referred to as the energy-water nexus, by reducing water availability for hydropower generation and by increasing irrigation and electricity demand for groundwater pumping, among other feedbacks. Further, many climate adaptation measures to augment water supplies - such as water recycling and desalination - are energy-intensive. However, water and electricity system climate vulnerabilities and adaptations are often studied in isolation, without considering how multiple interactive risks may compound. This paper reviews the fragmented literature and develops a generalized framework for understanding these implications of climate change on the energy-water nexus. We apply this framework in a case study to quantify end-century direct climate impacts on California's water and electricity resources and estimate the magnitude of the indirect cross-sectoral feedback of electricity demand from various water adaptation strategies. Our results show that increased space cooling demand and decreased hydropower generation are the most significant direct climate change impacts on California's electricity sector by end-century. In California's water sector, climate change impacts directly on surface water availability exceed demand changes, but have considerable uncertainty, both in direction and magnitude. Additionally, we find that the energy demands of water sector climate adaptations could significantly affect California's future electricity system needs. If the worst-case water shortage occurs under climate change, water-conserving adaptation measures can provide large energy savings co-benefits, but other energy-intensive water adaptations may double the direct impacts of climate change on the state's electricity resource requirement. These results highlight the value of coordinated adaptation planning between the energy and water sectors to achieve mutually beneficial solutions for climate resilience.

/pdf/evaluating-cross-sectoral-impacts-of-climate-change-and-2p3cyylfaj.pdf

Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study

Multiple models are often employed to examine a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are commonly explored in such efforts due to the electric sector's overall economic importance, but multi-model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern This study investigates the relationship between efforts to harmonize input assumptions across multiple models and the resulting consistency of model outputs under different electric sector scenarios We compare cross-model consistency between two electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios with alternate assumptions about fossil fuel prices, technology innovation, and economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations that vary model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific to achieve comparable cross-model consistency Harmonization does not always improve consistency due to complex interactions between input assumptions, harmonized features, and unharmonized features However, thorough harmonization can reduce uncertainty bounds and reveal insights into what drives cross-model consistency between two or more models This work provides researchers and decision makers with a framework to carefully consider tradeoffs between effort and impact of harmonization efforts within multi-model analysis activities

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.

/pdf/decomposing-supply-side-and-demand-side-impacts-of-climate-3axvfewomq.pdf

Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

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Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050