A method for downscaling from the relatively coarse General Circulation Model (GCM) spatial scale to the finer spatial scale required for impact assessment has been developed and tested in the Guadalentin Basin, southeast Spain. The method uses a circulation-type approach and relates large-scale patterns of a predictor variable, gridded sea level pressure, to local values of a surface climate variable (daily rainfall at six stations). The large-scale patterns are defined using an automated version of the Lamb Weather Type classification scheme, originally developed for the British Isles. It is demonstrated that this scheme can be successfully transferred to another region, southeast Spain. The 14 basic circulation types are combined into eight groups. These provide a legitimate basis for downscaling because each has a characteristic pressure pattern which produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study region. Furthermore, a set of consistent and distinct relationships is identified between these circulation types and daily rainfall in the Guadalentin Basin. The ability of the GCM to reproduce the observed circulation types is assessed before applying these relationships to control and perturbed-run GCM output using a statistical weather generator. The effects of the GCM’s failure to reproduce the observed frequency of the circulation types are detectable in the weather generator output. The GCM changes in SLP and circulation-type frequency between the control and perturbed-runs are generally small. Nonetheless the weather generator results indicate significant changes in the number of rain days in spring and summer. These scenarios are presented as illustrative results rather than as reliable predictions. It is concluded that the circulation-type based approach to downscaling offers great potential. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.

Development of daily rainfall scenarios for southeast spain using a circulation-type approach to downscaling

Deaths caused by lightning in England and Wales, 1852–1990

Thunderstorm rainfall is considered as a very vital climatic factor because of its significant effects and often disastrous consequences upon people and the natural environment in the Greater Sydney Region. Thus, this study investigates the following aspects of thunderstorm rainfall climatology of the region between 1960 to 1993. In detail, it was found that thunderstorm rainfalls in Sydney have marked diurnal and seasonal variations. They are most frequent in the spring and summer and during the late afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms occur primarily over the coastal areas and mountains, and less frequently over the lowland interior of the Sydney basin. Environmental factors, such as the local climatic factors and physiographic parameters may control thunderstorm occurrence and its associated rainfall distribution. More detailed associations, possible causal relationships, using stepwise regression indicate that thunderstorm rainfall frequency could partially be affected by air and sea temperatures, and air humidity. Accordingly, specific attention was paid to the patterns of the spatial variation of thunderstorm rainfall during the warm months (October to March) over a long timespan (34 years), using data from 191 rainfall stations. Mathematically, the g a m m a functions (beta and alpha values) describe and summarise the probability distribution of daily thunderstorm rainfall across the Sydney region. The findings reveal the interplay of topographic, coastal and urban effects in controlling the amount of thunderstorm rainfall in both spring and summer. A "climatologically oriented GIS" (including a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), a proximity map, and a landuse model) together with regression procedures were used to assess the relative importance of physiographic and environmental variables for six of the largest thunderstorm rainfall events. Three patterns emerged. The first is an increase in thunderstorm rainfall occurring toward the coast. The second is an increase in thunderstorm rainfall as elevation increases. Finally, the more compact the urban residential and commercialised areas the greater the amount of thunderstorm rainfall. These variables account for 70 per cent of thunderstorm rainfall variations throughout the Sydney region.

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2986&context=theses

Temporal and spatial study of thunderstorm rainfall in the Greater Sydney region

Lightning Impacts in the United Kingdom and Ireland

A rare summer thunderstorm

Thunderstorm Climatological Research in Great Britain and Ireland

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Thunderstorm Climatological Research in Great Britain and Ireland