Scholars in many disciplines have used diverse methods and sources to establish that, between the 15th and 18th centuries, a “Little Ice Age” considerably cooled Earth's climate. In four particularly chilly periods—the Spörer Minimum, Grindelwald Fluctuation, Maunder Minimum, and Dalton Minimum—falling temperatures both caused and reflected changes in atmospheric circulation that altered regional patterns of precipitation. Many scholars have argued that weather in these cold periods provoked or worsened regional food shortages, famines, rebellions, wars, and outbreaks of epidemic disease, in ways that may have contributed to mass mortality across the early modern world. More recently, some scholars have contrasted the fates of societies or communities that were “vulnerable” to climate change with those that were “resilient” or even consciously or unconsciously adaptive in the face of the Little Ice Age. Overall, research that connects climatic and social histories has suggested that human decisions, political structures, economic arrangements, institutions, and cultures either magnified or mitigated the impact of climate change on the societies of the early modern world.

Climate change and society in the 15th to 18th centuries

The model uncertainty, one of the major sources of projection uncertainty, is still a challenge in the climate simulation. In this study, we investigated the inter-model spread of the simulated winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the Eurasian continent and the physical link to the upper-level jet streams from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 models. Extracted by the inter-model empirical orthogonal function analysis, the leading inter-model spread of SAT over the Eurasian continent is characterized by a cold pattern, particularly over high latitudes, which is closely associated with the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). The weakened-EAPJ-enhanced-EASJ pattern is linked to the intensified Siberian high, the strengthened Aleutian low, and the deepened East Asian trough. All the variations would benefit the cold air invasion, resulting in the leading inter-model spread of the SAT. The possible mechanism for the inter-model uncertainty in the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the two jets would be traced to the cooling over the Northwest Pacific oceans, which has reduced (enhanced) the meridional temperature gradient over high (low) latitudes and thereby contributed to the out of phase variation in the two jets. Our findings would help provide a potential metric for understanding the winter SAT change over the Eurasian continent. 

Inter‐Model Spread of the Simulated Winter Surface Air Temperature Over the Eurasian Continent and the Physical Linkage to the Jet Streams From the CMIP6 Models

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions regulates hydrological cycles, water sustainability, and ecosystem functions in the cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Previous studies often focused on the impacts of rising temperature on the ALT, while the roles of soil water content and soil granularity have rarely been investigated. Here, we incorporate alterations of soil water contents in soil thermal properties across various soil granularities and assess spatiotemporal ALT dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The regional average ALT on the QTP is projected to be nearly 4 m by 2100. Our results indicate that soil wetting decelerates the active layer thickening in response to warming, while latent heat exerts stronger control on ALTs than thermal conductivity does. Under similar warming conditions, active layers thicken faster in coarse soils than in fine soils. An important ramification of this study is that neglecting soil wetting may cause overestimations of active layer thickening on the QTP.

How does soil water content influence permafrost evolution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate warming?

Corals in the northern Red Sea exhibit high thermal tolerance despite the increasing heat stress. It is assumed that corals throughout the Red Sea have similar bleaching thresholds (32°C or higher), and hence greater bleaching tolerance of corals in the northern Red Sea region is likely due to lower ambient water temperatures (25–28°C) that remain well below the corals’ physiological maxima. Whether bleaching patterns across the Red Sea are independent of the local maximum monthly mean of seawater temperature and aligned with an assumed 32°C threshold has yet to be determined. Here, we used remotely sensed surface sea temperature data spanning 1982–2020 to model spatial distributions of Degree Heat Weeks across the Red Sea in relation to assumed coral thermal threshold values of 30, 31, and 32°C. We also used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model outputs to predict warming trends in the Red Sea under different greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We show that applying 32°C thresholds dramatically reduces effective Degree Heat Weeks in the north, but not in central or southern Red Sea regions, a finding that is consistent with historical bleaching observations throughout the Red Sea. Further, model predictions under the most extreme RCP8.5 scenario exhibited ~3°C warming by the end of the 21st century (1998-2020) throughout the Red Sea with less pronounced warming for the northern Red Sea (2–2.5°C) compared to the central and southern regions (2.7–3.1°C). This warming rate will remain below the assumed thermal threshold for the northern Red Sea which should help this region to serve as refugia (i.e., maintaining favorable temperatures) for corals to persist for decades ahead. Together, our results support the notion that corals have similar thresholds throughout the Red Sea; hence, coral bleaching thresholds are independent of the local maximum monthly mean. Consequently, where regional warming projections suggest the northern Red Sea will not reach assumed bleaching thresholds (32°C) before the end of the 21st century, coral reefs in the northern region may be among the last standing against climate change.

/pdf/appraisal-of-coral-bleaching-thresholds-and-thermal-rcynwj76.pdf

Appraisal of coral bleaching thresholds and thermal projections for the northern Red Sea refugia

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth’s orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP–LIA anomalies in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth’s orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s40645-017-0136-7.pdf

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

An assessment of temperature simulations by CMIP6 climate models over the Tibetan Plateau and differences with CMIP5 climate models

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation (CV) of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased (decreased) CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA (LIA). The CV change ranges from −7.0% to 4.3% (from −6.3% to 5.4%), with a global average of −0.5% (−0.07%) in the MCA (LIA). Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.

Interannual climate variability change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 last millennium simulations

Understanding the spatiotemporal variation of autumn precipitation and its relationship with the large-scale circulation is important for planning industrial and agricultural production, economic development, and ecological protection. This study investigated the relationship between the August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) and September precipitation over Southeast China (SC) during the period 1961–2020. Results showed that the August APO can exert considerable control on September precipitation over SC and that a significant positive correlation exists between them. With a strong (weak) August APO, the anomalous southerly (northerly) winds are observed in the north (south) of SC at the upper level, and the deep trough over East Asia and ridge over North Pacific at 500hPa are both reinforced (weakened). This leads to anomalous northward (southward) lower-tropospheric winds over the East Asian coast, accompanied by enhanced convergence (divergence) of warm and cold air masses and anomalous ascent (descent) motion which results in more (less) precipitation over SC. The underlying mechanism can be explained as thermal anomalies induced by the APO that can persist from August to September, which modulates the atmospheric circulation anomalies in September and eventually causes more (less) precipitation over SC. Therefore, in addition to the role of sea surface temperature forcing on precipitation variations, our analyses suggest that the preceding temperature anomalies at the middle and upper troposphere also should be considered as an important precursory factor for the following precipitation over SC.

/pdf/linkage-between-preceding-august-asian-pacific-oscillation-1pm860vi.pdf

Linkage Between Preceding August Asian–Pacific Oscillation and September Precipitation Over Southeast China

Unusual recent prolonged low flow in the Moqu River, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, inferred from tree-ring width variations

The Asian–Pacific oscillation over the past millennium in PMIP3 and PMIP4

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