Abstract Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide and there has been a concerning increase in the incidence rate of colorectal cancer among individuals under the age of 50. This study compared the survival outcome between early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer to find the differences and identify their prognostic factors. We obtained patient data from SEER database. Survival outcome was estimated using Kaplan–Meier survival curves and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted utilizing COX models to identify their independent prognostic factors. A total of 10,036 early-onset metastatic colorectal (EOCRC) cancer patients and 56,225 late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer (LOCRC) patients between 2010 and 2019 were included in this study. EOCRC has more survival benefits than LOCRC. Tumor primary location ( p &lt; 0.001), the location of metastasis ( p &lt; 0.001) and treatment modalities ( p &lt; 0.001) affect the survival outcomes between these two groups of patients. Female patients had better survival outcomes in EOCRC group ( p &lt; 0.001), but no difference was found in LOCRC group ( p = 0.57). In conclusion, our study demonstrated that EOCRC patients have longer survival time than LOCRC patients. The sex differences in survival of metastatic colorectal cancer patients are associated with patients’ age. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the differences between metastatic EOCRC and LOCRC, and can help inform the development of more precise treatment guidelines to improve prognosis. 

Survival outcome and prognostic factors for early-onset and late-onset metastatic colorectal cancer: a population based study from SEER database

Heterogeneity of immune infiltration and immunotherapy in colorectal cancer

Abstract Background KRAS/BRAF mutations (mutKRAS/mutBRAF) are unfavorable prognostic factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) metastases to the liver and lungs. However, their effects on the prognosis for patients with synchronous peritoneal metastasis (S-PM) of CRC after cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are controversial. In the study, we aimed to determine the effects of mutKRAS/mutBRAF on the prognosis for patients with S-PM who received CRS. Methods A total of 142 patients diagnosed with S-PM between July 2007 and July 2019 were included in this study. The demographics, mutKRAS/mutBRAF status, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) of the patients were evaluated. The Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate the difference in survival between groups. Results Among 142 patients, 68 (47.9%) showed mutKRAS and 42 (29.5%) showed mutBRAF. The median OS values were 8.4 and 34.3 months for patients with mutBRAF and BRAF wild-type, respectively (P < 0.01). However, KRAS status was not significantly associated with median OS (P = 0.76). Multivariate analysis revealed carcinoembryonic antigen, CRS, HIPEC, and mutBRAF as independent predictors for OS. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed. The C-index was 0.789 (95% confidence interval, 0.742–0.836), indicating good predictive ability of the model. Furthermore, the 1- and 2-year survival calibration plots showed good agreement between the predicted and actual OS rates. The area under curves of the 1- and 2-year survival predictions based on the nomogram were 0.807 and 0.682, respectively. Additionally, mutBRAF was significantly associated with lower PFS (P < 0.001). Conclusions mutBRAF is an independent prognostic risk factor for S-PM. The established nomogram predicted the OS of patients with CRC having S-PM with high accuracy, indicating its usefulness as a valuable prognostic tool for the designated patient cohort.

Effect of BRAF mutation on the prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer undergoing cytoreductive surgery for synchronous peritoneal metastasis

ABSTRACT Background Most colorectal cancer (CRC) patients are at an advanced stage when they are first diagnosed. Risk factors for predicting overall survival (OS) in advanced stage CRC patients are crucial, and constructing a prognostic nomogram model is a scientific method for survival analysis. Methods A total of 2956 advanced stage CRC patients were randomised into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen risk factors for OS and subsequently construct a prognostic nomogram model for predicting 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS of advanced stage CRC patients. The performance of the model was demonstrated by the area under the curve (AUC) values, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan–Meier curves were used to plot the survival probabilities for different strata of each risk factor. Results There was no statistically significant difference ( p &gt; 0.05) in the 32 clinical variables between patients in the training and validation groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses demonstrated that age, location, TNM, chemotherapy, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, MSH6, CEA, CA199, CA125 and CA724 were risk factors for OS. We estimated the AUC values for the nomogram model to predict 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS, which in the training group were 0.826 (95% CI: 0.807–0.845), 0.836 (0.819–0.853), 0.839 (0.820–0.859), 0.835 (0.809–0.862) and 0.825 (0.779–0.870) respectively; in the validation group, the corresponding AUC values were 0.819 (0.786–0.852), 0.831 (0.804–0.858), 0.830 (0.799–0.861), 0.815 (0.774–0.857) and 0.802 (0.723–0.882) respectively. Finally, the 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS rates for advanced stage CRC patients were 73.4 (71.8–75.0), 49.5 (47.8–51.4), 43.3 (41.5–45.2), 40.1 (38.1–41.9) and 38.6 (36.6–40.8) respectively. Conclusion We constructed and validated an original nomogram for predicting the postoperative OS of advanced stage CRC patients, which can help facilitates physicians to accurately assess the individual survival of postoperative patients and identify high‐risk patients. 

Establishment and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Overall Survival in Advanced Stage <scp>III–IV</scp> Colorectal Cancer Patients

Background/Objectives: Recently, some new morphological features of colorectal cancer have been discovered as important prognostic factors; in this paper, we study the relationship between tumor budding (TB) and tumor deposits (TDs). Methods: The retrospective cohort study included 90 patients with pathohistologically confirmed stage III CRC who were treated with radical surgical resection. All hematoxylin and eosin (H and E)-stained slides from each patient were reviewed, and histological parameters were recorded. The samples were divided into two groups with similar sizes: a group without TDs (N = 51) and a control group with TDs (N = 39). The presence and TB grade were further analyzed in these groups and compared with other clinical and histological features. Results: The prevalence of TB in the investigated cohort was unexpectedly high (94.4%). Overall, there were 23 (25.6%) Bd1, 20 (22.2%) Bd2, and 47 (52.2%) Bd3 cases. The presence of TDs was significantly associated with a higher number of TB (p < 0.001, OR 16.3) and, consequently, with a higher TB grade (p = 0.004, OR 11.04). A higher TB grade (p = 0.001, HR 2.28; 95% CI 1.93–4.76) and a growing number of TDs (p = 0.014, HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.09–2.1) were statistically significantly associated with shorter survival. Conclusions: TDs appear more often in patients with higher TB grades in stage III CRC. A higher TB grade and a growing number of TDs were statistically significantly associated with shorter overall survival. These results could give additional emphasis to the importance of TB as an adverse prognostic factor since a strong relationship with TDs has been demonstrated.

The Relationship between Tumor Budding and Tumor Deposits in Patients with Stage III Colorectal Carcinoma

Abstract Background Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment. Method We collected the information of 16,283 patients with stage IV CRC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomized these patients in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 501 patients in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) database were selected and used as an external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for nomogram establishment. The nomogram model was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (time-dependent ROC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan–Meier method. Result The C-index of the nomogram for OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.737, 0.727, and 0.655, respectively. ROC analysis and calibration curves pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model. Further, we divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the nomogram. Corresponding Kaplan–Meier curves showed that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with the actual practice. Additionally, model comparisons and decision curve analysis proved that the nomogram for predicting prognosis was significantly superior to the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. Conclusions We constructed a nomogram to predict OS of the stage IV CRC and externally validate its generalization, which was superior to the TNM staging system.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a crucial factor that determines the prognosis of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. We aimed to develop a practical prediction model for LNM in T1 CRC. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from 825 patients with T1 CRC who underwent radical resection at a single center in China. All enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3 using R software. Risk factors for LNM were identified through multivariate logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, a prediction model was developed using the selected variables. The lymph node metastasis (LNM) rate was 10.1% in the training cohort and 9.3% in the validation cohort. In the training set, risk factors for LNM in T1 CRC were identified, including depressed endoscopic gross appearance, sex, submucosal invasion combined with tumor grade (DSI-TG), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and tumor budding. LVI emerged as the most potent predictor for LNM. The prediction model based on these factors exhibited good discrimination ability in the validation sets (AUC: 79.3%). Compared to current guidelines, the model could potentially reduce over-surgery by 48.9%. Interestingly, we observed that sex had a differential impact on LNM between early-onset and late-onset CRC patients. We developed a clinical prediction model for LNM in T1 CRC using five factors that are easily accessible in clinical practice. The model has better predictive performance and practicality than the current guidelines and can assist clinicians in making treatment decisions for T1 CRC patients.

A new clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer

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Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer

A new clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer