Predicting the future behavior of road users is one of the most challenging and important problems in autonomous driving. Applying deep learning to this problem requires fusing heterogeneous world state in the form of rich perception signals and map information, and inferring highly multi-modal distributions over possible futures. In this paper, we present MultiPath++, a future prediction model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on popular benchmarks. MultiPath++ improves the MultiPath architecture by revisiting many design choices. The first key design difference is a departure from dense image-based encoding of the input world state in favor of a sparse encoding of heterogeneous scene elements: MultiPath++ consumes compact and efficient polylines to describe road features, and raw agent state information directly (e.g., position, velocity, acceleration). We propose a context-aware fusion of these elements and develop a reusable multi-context gating fusion component. Second, we reconsider the choice of pre-defined, static anchors, and develop a way to learn latent anchor embeddings end-to-end in the model. Lastly, we explore ensembling and output aggregation techniques -- common in other ML domains -- and find effective variants for our probabilistic multimodal output representation. We perform an extensive ablation on these design choices, and show that our proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Argoverse Motion Forecasting Competition and the Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.

MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction

Interactive driving scenarios, such as lane changes, merges and unprotected turns, are some of the most challenging situations for autonomous driving. Planning in interactive scenarios requires accurately modeling the reactions of other agents to different future actions of the ego agent. We develop end-to-end models for conditional behavior prediction (CBP) that take as an input a query future trajectory for an ego-agent, and predict distributions over future trajectories for other agents conditioned on the query. Leveraging such a model, we develop a general-purpose agent interactivity score derived from probabilistic first principles. The interactivity score allows us to find interesting interactive scenarios for training and evaluating behavior prediction models. We further demonstrate that the proposed score is effective for agent prioritization under computational budget constraints.

Identifying Driver Interactions via Conditional Behavior Prediction

Roads have well defined geometries, topologies, and traffic rules. While this has been widely exploited in motion planning methods to produce maneuvers that obey the law, little work has been devoted to utilize these priors in perception and motion forecasting methods. In this paper we propose to incorporate these structured priors as a loss function. In contrast to imposing hard constraints, this approach allows the model to handle non-compliant maneuvers when those happen in the real world. Safe motion planning is the end goal, and thus a probabilistic characterization of the possible future developments of the scene is key to choose the plan with the lowest expected cost. Towards this goal, we design a framework that leverages REINFORCE to incorporate non-differentiable priors over sample trajectories from a probabilistic model, thus optimizing the whole distribution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real-world self-driving datasets containing complex road topologies and multi-agent interactions. Our motion forecasts not only exhibit better precision and map understanding, but most importantly result in safer motion plans taken by our self-driving vehicle. We emphasize that despite the importance of this evaluation, it has been often overlooked by previous perception and motion forecasting works.

The Importance of Prior Knowledge in Precise Multimodal Prediction

In this paper, we propose an end-to-end self-driving network featuring a sparse attention module that learns to automatically attend to important regions of the input. The attention module specifically targets motion planning, whereas prior literature only applied attention in perception tasks. Learning an attention mask directly targeted for motion planning significantly improves the planner safety by performing more focused computation. Furthermore, visualizing the attention improves interpretability of end-to-end self-driving.

Perceive, Attend, and Drive: Learning Spatial Attention for Safe Self-Driving

In autonomous navigation, a planning system reasons about other agents to plan a safe and plausible trajectory. Before planning starts, agents are typically processed with computationally intensive models for recognition, tracking, motion estimation and prediction. With limited computational resources and a large number of agents to process in real time, it becomes important to efficiently rank agents according to their impact on the decision making process. This allows spending more time processing the most important agents. We propose a system to rank agents around an autonomous vehicle (AV) in real time. We automatically generate a ranking data set by running the planner in simulation on real-world logged data, where we can afford to run more accurate and expensive models on all the agents. The causes of various planner actions are logged and used for assigning ground truth importance scores. The generated data set can be used to learn ranking models. In particular, we show the utility of combining learned features, via a convolutional neural network, with engineered features designed to capture domain knowledge. We show the benefits of various design choices experimentally. When tested on real AVs, our system demonstrates the capability of understanding complex driving situations.

pdf/agent-prioritization-for-autonomous-navigation-3fw612iu3q.pdf

Agent Prioritization for Autonomous Navigation

Agent prioritization for autonomous vehicles

Training trajectory scoring neural networks to accurately assign scores

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Agent Prioritization for Autonomous Navigation

Agent Prioritization for Autonomous Navigation

Agent prioritization for autonomous vehicles

Training trajectory scoring neural networks to accurately assign scores