Rainfall events in the United Kingdom during the twentieth century have been surveyed and those identified as extreme by the Flood Studies Report (1975) standards have been examined for common features. Events of duration up to 60 hours were considered in order to investigate those that could cause flash floods. More than half of the 50 events identified were short-period convective storms. The rainfall events were classified by meteorological situation, location and season, allowing the identification of conditions under which extreme rainfall occurred.



Suitable conditions for extreme rainfall were split into three categories: orographic, frontal and convective. The frontal and convective classes were then divided into two sub-classes according to whether significant embedded instability was present in the frontal cases and the nature of the convection in the convective cases. The study revealed a lot of commonality between the cases. For example, all of the orographic events occurred in winter in moist west to southwest airflows, and 80% of the frontal cases involved a slow-moving depression to the south or east and also a slow moving frontal system. A conceptual airflow diagram has been developed for some of the frontal cases. The key result, however, was the discovery that each category of meteorological situation occupied a unique space in a rainfall amount versus duration diagram for each extreme event. This offers exciting opportunities for applying the results of this study and a framework for studying future events. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1350482703001117

A study of twentieth-century extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom with implications for forecasting

There has recently been a widespread shift in the pattern of UK rainfall towards more heavy falls of rain in winter and fewer in summer. Here, this change is examined in the context of orographic enhancement for a transect of rain gauges running across northern England from coast to coast and including both the Lake District and Pennine uplands. Gauges have been selected where very long records of daily rainfall exist; where data are missing, these have been infilled using data from nearby gauges. The very long records for Armagh and Durham are also included to provide additional context in time and space. For the upland gauges, the increase in total winter rainfall in recent decades and the simultaneous decrease in total summer rainfall are reflected in the number of heavy falls of rain, as defined using two threshold indices. The 1990s saw record numbers of heavy falls in winter and an almost complete absence of heavy summer rainfall in the uplands, in marked contrast to lowland gauges. Comparison of the rainfall record with the Lamb Weather Catalogue suggests that increased winter rainfall is related to an increase in the rainfall provided by westerly weather types. Decreased summer rainfall is related to a reduction in rainfall associated with cyclonic weather types. The results presented here underline the value of long-term monitoring and the maintenance of records from key historic sites. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England

Recent severe weather events have prompted the European scientific community to assess the current understanding of convective processes with a view to more detailed and accurate forecasting. The initial development of convective cells remains one of the least understood aspects and one in which limited research has taken place. The important processes can be split into three main areas: boundary-layer forcing, upper-level forcing and secondary generation. This paper is a review of the mechanisms responsible for the initiation of precipitating convection in the United Kingdom; i.e. why convective clouds form and develop into precipitating clouds in a particular location.

The topography of the United Kingdom has a large influence on the initiation of convection. Boundary-layer forcings determine the specific location where convection is triggered within larger regions of potential instability. These latter regions are created by mesoscale or synoptic-scale features at a higher level such as dry intrusions and mesoscale vortices. Second-generation cells are those formed by the interaction of outflow from convective clouds with the surrounding environmental air. Large, long-lived thunderstorm complexes can develop when new cells are repeatedly triggered on one side of the system. Current and future field campaigns along with the development of high-resolution modelling will enable these processes to be investigated in more detail than has previously been achieved. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright.

A review of the initiation of precipitating convection in the United Kingdom

Jérôme Kopp1 , Katharina Schröer2,3,4 , Cornelia Schwierz3 , Alessandro Hering5 , Urs Germann5 and Olivia Martius1 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Germany Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, LocarnoMonti, Switzerland

The summer 2021 Switzerland hailstorms: weather situation, major impacts and unique ­observational data

Two methods have been used to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) over South West England. The first is based on an analysis of rainfall frequency data; the second uses depth duration data from rare storms. Both methods give results of around 500 mm for the 24-hour PMP, which for many parts of the region is considerably higher than that given by the Flood Studies Report. By relating PMP to average annual rainfall, new maps of the distribution of PMP over South West England were produced. Values of PMP are highest on low ground, reflecting the effect of convectional processes in these areas.

New estimates of probable maximum precipitation in South West England

Radar observations of the halifax storm, 19 may 1989

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Radar observations of the halifax storm, 19 may 1989