This article is a review of the approaches published between 1996 and 1999 that have been used to forecast human resource requirements for nursing. Much of the work to date generally does not consider the complex factors that influence health human resources (HHR). They also do not consider the effect of HHR decisions on population health, provider outcomes such as stress, and the cost of a decision made. Supply and demand approaches have dominated. Forecasting is limited, too, by the availability of reliable and valid data bases for examining supply and use of nursing personnel across sectors. Three models--needs based, utilization based, and effective demand based--provide substantially different estimates of future HHR need. The methods of analysis employed for forecasting range from descriptive to predictive and are borrowed from demography, epidemiology, economics, and industrial engineering. Simulation models offer the most promise for the future. The forecasting methods described have demonstrated their accuracy and usefulness for specific situations, but none has proven accurate for long-term forecasting or for estimating needs for large geographical areas or populations.

Forecasting models for human resources in health care

/pdf/addressing-mental-health-workforce-needs-in-underserved-22pyl4mkas.pdf

Addressing mental health workforce needs in underserved rural areas: accomplishments and challenges

This paper is one in 10 in a series of papers commissioned by the World Health Organization to take stock of the state of the science of human resources for health activities in the year 2000 This paper provides an analysis of how labour market indicators can be integrated into service planning, discusses whether planning is sufficiently responsive and flexible to retain relevance and validity in rapidly changing health systems, describes different models and approaches to linking and integrating workforce planning and service planning, discusses methodological approaches to integrating planning, and examines effective approaches to the use of computer based scenario modeling to support assessment of current and future planning options The context and broad cross-cutting themes of public sector, political, social, and macro-economic changes have been considered Where publications exist, empirical evidence serves as the basis for this analysis and country examples have been highlighted While strides have been made in the practice of resource planning world-wide, health human resource planning in most countries has been poorly conceptualized, intermittent, varying in quality, profession specific in nature, and without adequate vision or data upon which to base sound decisions

Integrating workforce planning, human resources and service planning

On the basis of an analysis of the supply of and demand for orthopaedic surgeons, we projected that there will be 21,134 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists in the year 2010 if training continues at current levels. We estimated a demand-based requirement of 17,012 full-time-equivalent orthopaedic surgeons, indicating a surplus of 4122 full-time equivalents. In terms of orthopaedist-to-population ratios, we estimated that there will be 7.5 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists per 100,000 population in 2010 compared with a demand-based requirement of 6.0 full-time equivalents. However, we did not include estimates of the demand for orthopaedic surgeons as assistants in the operating room in our model. If an assistant orthopaedic surgeon is required for all procedures, an additional 3906 full-time-equivalent orthopaedists would be demanded, thus eliminating the surplus. The demand for an assistant orthopaedic surgeon in only half of the procedures would still lead to a sizable reduction in the surplus.

Demand-based assessment of workforce requirements for orthopaedic services.

/pdf/physician-workforce-supply-in-belgium-current-situation-and-39qyb20hqr.pdf

Physician workforce supply in Belgium: current situation and challenges

OBJECTIVE: To compare three methods of computing the national requirements for otolaryngologists in 1994 and 2010. DATA SOURCES: Three large HMOs, a Delphi panel, the Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr), and published sources. STUDY DESIGN: Three established methods of computing requirements for otolaryngologists were compared: managed care, demand-utilization, and adjusted needs assessment. Under the managed care model, a published method based on reviewing staffing patterns in HMOs was modified to estimate the number of otolaryngologists. We obtained from BHPr estimates of work force projections from their demand model. To estimate the adjusted needs model, we convened a Delphi panel of otolaryngologists using the methodology developed by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC). DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Wide variation in the estimated number of otolaryngologists required occurred across the three methods. Within each model it was possible to alter the requirements for otolaryngologists significantly by changing one or more of the key assumptions. The managed care model has a potential to obtain the most reliable estimates because it reflects actual staffing patterns in institutions that are attempting to use physicians efficiently. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of work force requirements can vary considerably if one or more assumptions are changed. In order for the managed care approach to be useful for actual decision making concerning the appropriate number of otolaryngologists required, additional research on the methodology used to extrapolate the results to the general population is necessary.

A comparison of three methods for estimating the requirements for medical specialists: the case of otolaryngologists.

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A comparison of three methods for estimating the requirements for medical specialists: the case of otolaryngologists.