Acknowledgements the authors thank the UK General Medical Council (GMC) for commissioning an initial rapid review of the literature on selection and widening access to medicine in 2013. Further thanks are due to the UK Medical Schools Council (MSC) for commissioning a significantly updated review of selection methods in 2014, funding for which was provided by Health Education England (HEE) and the Office for Fair Access (OFFA). Working together on both of these projects encouraged us to further develop our ideas and produce an updated systematic review for publication in 2015. We also thank those who contributed to the original project funded by the GMC, notably John McLachlan, Member of the Centre for Medical Education Research, Durham University, and Emma Dunlop, Medical Admissions, University of Aberdeen. Funding funding was provided by HEE and the OFFA.

/pdf/how-effective-are-selection-methods-in-medical-education-a-1qnthmo28f.pdf

How effective are selection methods in medical education? A systematic review

Why use SJTs? Traditionally, selection into medical education professions has focused primarily upon academic ability alone. This approach has been questioned more recently, as although academic attainment predicts performance early in training, research shows it has less predictive power for demonstrating competence in postgraduate clinical practice. Such evidence, coupled with an increasing focus on individuals working in healthcare roles displaying the core values of compassionate care, benevolence and respect, illustrates that individuals should be selected on attributes other than academic ability alone. Moreover, there are mounting calls to widen access to medicine, to ensure that selection methods do not unfairly disadvantage individuals from specific groups (e.g. regarding ethnicity or socio-economic status), so that the future workforce adequately represents society as a whole. These drivers necessitate a method of assessment that allows individuals to be selected on important non-academic attributes that are desirable in healthcare professionals, in a fair, reliable and valid way. What are SJTs? Situational judgement tests (SJTs) are tests used to assess individuals' reactions to a number of hypothetical role-relevant scenarios, which reflect situations candidates are likely to encounter in the target role. These scenarios are based on a detailed analysis of the role and should be developed in collaboration with subject matter experts, in order to accurately assess the key attributes that are associated with competent performance. From a theoretical perspective, SJTs are believed to measure prosocial Implicit Trait Policies (ITPs), which are shaped by socialisation processes that teach the utility of expressing certain traits in different settings such as agreeable expressions (e.g. helping others in need), or disagreeable actions (e.g. advancing ones own interest at others, expense). Are SJTs reliable, valid and fair? Several studies, including good quality meta-analytic and longitudinal research, consistently show that SJTs used in many different occupational groups are reliable and valid. Although there is over 40 years of research evidence available on SJTs, it is only within the past 10 years that SJTs have been used for recruitment into medicine. Specifically, evidence consistently shows that SJTs used in medical selection have good reliability, and predict performance across a range of medical professions, including performance in general practice, in early years (foundation training as a junior doctor) and for medical school admissions. In addition, SJTs have been found to have significant added value (incremental validity) over and above other selection methods such as knowledge tests, measures of cognitive ability, personality tests and application forms. Regarding differential attainment, generally SJTs have been found to have lower adverse impact compared to other selection methods, such as cognitive ability tests. SJTs have the benefit of being appropriate both for use in selection where candidates are novices (i.e. have no prior role experience or knowledge such as in medical school admissions) as well as settings where candidates have substantial job knowledge and specific experience (as in postgraduate recruitment for more senior roles). An SJT specification (e.g. scenario content, response instructions and format) may differ depending on the level of job knowledge required. Research consistently shows that SJTs are usually found to be positively received by candidates compared to other selection tests such as cognitive ability and personality tests. Practically, SJTs are difficult to design effectively, and significant expertise is required to build a reliable and valid SJT. Once designed however, SJTs are cost efficient to administer to large numbers of candidates compared to other tests of non-academic attributes (e.g. personal statements, structured interviews), as they are standardised and can be computer-delivered and machine-marked.

/pdf/situational-judgement-tests-in-medical-education-and-v594z8o7y5.pdf

Situational judgement tests in medical education and training: Research, theory and practice: AMEE Guide No. 100.

Background
Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades.

/pdf/the-academic-backbone-longitudinal-continuities-in-3b2t6hh8fj.pdf

The Academic Backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors.

Most UK medical schools use aptitude tests during student selection, but large-scale studies of predictive validity are rare. This study assesses the United Kingdom Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT), and its four sub-scales, along with measures of educational attainment, individual and contextual socio-economic background factors, as predictors of performance in the first year of medical school training. A prospective study of 4,811 students in 12 UK medical schools taking the UKCAT from 2006 to 2008 as a part of the medical school application, for whom first year medical school examination results were available in 2008 to 2010. UKCAT scores and educational attainment measures (General Certificate of Education (GCE): A-levels, and so on; or Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA): Scottish Highers, and so on) were significant predictors of outcome. UKCAT predicted outcome better in female students than male students, and better in mature than non-mature students. Incremental validity of UKCAT taking educational attainment into account was significant, but small. Medical school performance was also affected by sex (male students performing less well), ethnicity (non-White students performing less well), and a contextual measure of secondary schooling, students from secondary schools with greater average attainment at A-level (irrespective of public or private sector) performing less well. Multilevel modeling showed no differences between medical schools in predictive ability of the various measures. UKCAT sub-scales predicted similarly, except that Verbal Reasoning correlated positively with performance on Theory examinations, but negatively with Skills assessments. This collaborative study in 12 medical schools shows the power of large-scale studies of medical education for answering previously unanswerable but important questions about medical student selection, education and training. UKCAT has predictive validity as a predictor of medical school outcome, particularly in mature applicants to medical school. UKCAT offers small but significant incremental validity which is operationally valuable where medical schools are making selection decisions based on incomplete measures of educational attainment. The study confirms the validity of using all the existing measures of educational attainment in full at the time of selection decision-making. Contextual measures provide little additional predictive value, except that students from high attaining secondary schools perform less well, an effect previously shown for UK universities in general.

/pdf/the-ukcat-12-study-educational-attainment-aptitude-test-xmgosrcwyb.pdf

The UKCAT-12 study: educational attainment, aptitude test performance, demographic and socio-economic contextual factors as predictors of first year outcome in a cross-sectional collaborative study of 12 UK medical schools

CONTEXT Situational judgement tests (SJTs) are widely used to evaluate 'non-academic' abilities in medical applicants. However, there is a lack of understanding of how their predictive validity may vary across contexts. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise existing evidence relating to the validity of such tools for predicting outcomes relevant to interpersonal workplace performance. METHODS Searches were conducted in relevant databases to June 2019. Study quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Results were pooled using random effects meta-analysis and meta-regressions. RESULTS Initially, 470 articles were identified, 218 title or abstracts were reviewed, and 44 full text articles were assessed with 30 studies meeting the final inclusion criteria and were judged, overall, to be at moderate risk of bias. Of these, 26 reported correlation coefficients relating to validity, with a pooled estimate of 0.32 (95% confidence interval 0.26 to 0.39, P < .0001). Considerable heterogeneity was observed (I2  = 96.5%) with the largest validity coefficients tending to be observed for postgraduate, rather than undergraduate, selection studies (β = 0.23, 0.11 to 0.36, P < .001). The correction of validity coefficients for attenuation was also independently associated with larger effects (β = 0.13, 0.03 to 0.23, P = .01). No significant associations with test medium (video vs text format), cross-sectional study design, or period of assessment (one-off vs longer-term) were observed. Where reported, the scores generally demonstrated incremental predictive validity, over and above tests of knowledge and cognitive ability. CONCLUSIONS The use of SJTs in medical selection is supported by the evidence. The observed trend relating to training stage requires investigation. Further research should focus on developing robust criterion-relevant outcome measures that, ideally, capture interpersonal aspects of typical workplace performance. This will facilitate additional work identifying the optimal place of SJTs within particular selection contexts and further enhancing their effectiveness.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/medu.14201

Situational judgement test validity for selection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills.

/pdf/construct-level-predictive-validity-of-educational-1aj9xxhf4o.pdf

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection:: Meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

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The UKCAT-12 study: educational attainment, aptitude test performance, demographic and socio-economic contextual factors as predictors of first year outcome in a cross-sectional collaborative study of 12 UK medical schools

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection:: Meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies