The Panama Canal (PC) expansion will have an impact on trading patterns and the manner in which goods are transported around the world. Once the third set of locks at the Canal began their operation, it was clear that the way in which vessels transited the canal and their maximum dimensions were going to change. As such, the expanded Canal will undoubtedly mean that a new kind of vessel will come into existence. In terms of dimensions, these Neopanamax ships will be adapted to how the locks operate. However, this effect will not be the same across the full range of traffic. After the first transit on 26 June 2016, it was possible to obtain access to transit data for Neopanamax ships. A thorough statistical study of these new datasets would involve analysing how these new locks impact the vessel size and seaborne transport.

/pdf/effects-of-the-expanded-panama-canal-on-vessel-size-and-17rvvq9px0.pdf

Effects of the Expanded Panama Canal on Vessel Size and Seaborne Transport

A port’s operating capacity and the economic performance of its concessions are intimately related to the quality of its operational conditions. This paper presents an analytical methodology for estimating the movements of a moored vessel based on field measurements and forecast data, specifically including ship dimensions and meteorological and maritime conditions. The methodology was tested and validated in the Outer Port of Punta Langosteira, A Coruna, Spain. It was determined that the significant wave height outside the port, and the ratio of the vessel’s length divided by its beam (L/B), are the variables that most influence movements. Furthermore, heave and surge are the movements with a better value of the coefficient of determination (R2 values of 0.71 and 0.67, respectively), the sway (R2 = 0.30) and roll (R2 = 0.27) being the worst when using the available forecast variables of the Outer Port of Punta Langosteira. Despite their low R2 values, sway and roll models are able to estimate the main trends of these movements. The obtained estimators provide good predictions with assumable error values (root mean square error—RMSE and mean absolute error—MAE), showing their potential application as a predictive tool. Finally, as a consequence, the A Coruna Port Authority has included the results of the methodology in its port management system allowing them to predict moored vessel behavior in the port.

Application of an Analytic Methodology to Estimate the Movements of Moored Vessels Based on Forecast Data

The appearance of new gas extraction technologies has led to surplus production in the United States (Gulf of Mexico). At the same time, energy consumption in Asia has increased significantly and J...

Competitive position of the expanded Panama Canal in the shipment of liquefied natural gas

In response to an increased reliance on bigger, Neopanamax-sized vessels for shipping, the Panama Canal has been expanded. Whilst the way that vessels transit the newly expanded canal has stayed the same, maneuvering operations have changed. As a result, transit times have been affected. In accordance with the size and cargo of vessels, canal navigation rules restrict how access channels (Culebra Cut, Gatun Lake, and seaways) and new locks (Cocoli and Agua Clara) are used. Larger sized, Neopanamax vessels will benefit most from the expanded canal. Since the canal opened on 26 June 2016, data on transit times have been gathered. With these data, a thorough statistical analysis should be carried out. The most influential variables on overall time in transit (TET), such as pilot skill and Culebra Cut or Gatun Lake transit times, are identified. Formulae based on multivariate linear regression can be extracted that will make it possible to establish a conductive methodology for estimating the transit time of a Neopanamax vessel. Taking into account the results of the statistical analysis, a proposal is included for improving Neopanamax traffic management, with views to reduce the TET, from a transit policy point of view. This is the first work in scientific literature that analyzes in detail, from qualitative and statistical approaches, the total time in transit through the set of navigable routes and locks that compose the new expanded Panama Canal.

Modeling and forecasting of Neopanamax vessel transit time for traffic management in the Panama Canal

Piloting in the Panama Canal is exceptional as, due to its importance, the functions of the captains of vessels are taken over by pilots. Hence, prior to inauguration of the expanded canal, a limited number of pilots experienced on the existing canal were certified for the transit of Neopanamax vessels by means of planned and innovative individual learning. After this organisational training through operative training, with the implementation of the expanded canal in June 2016, the routine training started. Hence the learning curve in the performance of these manoeuvres will represent the growing skill acquired by both the pilots and the organisation. Given that the learning effect is measurable, this paper has the dual objective of determining two curve models: the organisation operative learning curve model and the routine learning curve model for pilots performing transit manoeuvres in the expanded Panama Canal waterways and the Cocoli and Agua Clara locks. Manoeuvre times in locks and transit in the whole of the canal were followed up continuously in the first 42 months of operation.

/pdf/modelling-operative-and-routine-learning-curves-in-34jezpq14a.pdf

Modelling operative and routine learning curves in manoeuvres in locks and in transit in the expanded Panama Canal

The Panama Canal (PC) has recently been in the world spotlight. In August 2014, it celebrated 100 years of uninterrupted service and, in June 2016, the expansion project for the canal was inaugurated. The final project involved building a third set of locks. Once the canal started to operate, it could be seen that the way in which vessels transited the canal remained the same. However, the dimensions of locks and their revised operating procedures have had an effect on vessel size and the manoeuvres for the larger vessels. After the first transit on 26 June 2016, it was possible to have access to data on the new lockage systems for Neopanamax ships. The thorough statistical study of these new datasets (composed of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), multivariate regression and statistical quality control techniques) has shown the main drivers of transit time across the Cocoli and Agua Clara locks. It has also made it possible to test the learning curve of Panama Canal pilots in the newly expanded canal. The effects of pilot training on the time it takes to transit through the locks, direction of entry in each lock, the type of vessel, vessel dimensions and the use of different types of manoeuvres have been analysed. The results are used to characterise and help optimise the performance of this new and unique lock system.

Effect of Inaugurating the Third Set of Locks in the Panama Canal on Vessel Size, Manoeuvring and Lockage Time

The transit of vessels of liquified natural gas by the Panama Canal is a recent fact derived from the increase in the production and exchanges of natural gas via the sea. The application of new extraction technologies in the United States has as a consequence a surplus in production and an increase in gas exports through the progressive adaptation and entry into service of maritime terminals. At the same time, the consumption in Pacific Asia is rising as a result of the development of emerging economies and Japan’s policy of energy diversification after the Fukushima event. This imbalance between production and consumption between the Atlantic and Pacific maritime areas, and the increase in its transport demand, coincides in time with the recent expansion of the Panama Canal. The consequences for shipping seem clear because the Canal opens the possibility of LNG shipments from the Gulf of Mexico in the United States and Trinidad and Tobago to Asia. The LNG transport flows directed to Asian consumers are greatly influenced by the Canal rates. Estimations of minimum and maximum LNG loads corresponding to the years 2020 and 2035 have been used to achieve the objective of this paper: to study the effect of these flows on the sea route that transits Panama and its influence on the exploitation of its Canal.

Evolution of Liquified Gas Transit Through the Panama Canal—An Opportunity for Exploiting the Expanded Canal

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Effect of Inaugurating the Third Set of Locks in the Panama Canal on Vessel Size, Manoeuvring and Lockage Time

Modelling operative and routine learning curves in manoeuvres in locks and in transit in the expanded Panama Canal

Evolution of Liquified Gas Transit Through the Panama Canal—An Opportunity for Exploiting the Expanded Canal