The paper discusses the role of public opinion in the foreign policy-making process of liberal democracies. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, public opinion matters. However, the impact of public opinion is determined not so much by the specific issues involved or by the particular pattern of public attitudes as by the domestic structure and the coalition-building processes among the elites in the respective country. The paper analyzes the public impact on the foreign policy-making process in four liberal democracies with distinct domestic structures: the United States, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan. Under the same international conditions and despite similar patterns of public attitudes, variances in foreign policy outcomes nevertheless occur; these have to be explained by differences in political institutions, policy networks, and societal structures. Thus, the four countries responded differently to Soviet policies during the 1980s despite more or less comparable trends in mass public opinion.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0043887100019729

Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies

In East Asia the United States cultivated a “hub and spokes” system of discrete, exclusive alliances with the Republic of Korea, the Republic of China, and Japan, a system that was distinct from th...

Powerplay: Origins of the U.S. Alliance System in Asia

have pointed to Japan as proof that countries can opt out of the violent world of realpolitik. Constructivist scholars in particular argue that the “culture of antimilitarism” that developed in Japan after its surrender in World War II led it to adopt a highly restrained foreign policy and to forswear the development of offensive military forces. Japan’s postwar behavior, these scholars argue, demonstrates the potential for domestic politics and norms to determine a state’s security policy; it also underscores the salience of constructivist theory in international politics.1 On the surface these claims appear strong. Japanese society is imbued with paciast norms. Despite the predictions of realist scholars that Japan will eventually behave as a “normal” great power, Tokyo has continued to show great restraint.2 But is there evidence that Japan’s antimilitarist norms actually con-

Pacifism or Passing the Buck?: Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy

In 1996, the Sino-Japanese conflict over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands intensified to the point where the American mass circulation periodical Time asked: “Will the next Asian war be fought over a few tiny islands?” That such a question could be asked seems incredible given that the Diaoyu Islands, which lie north-east of Taiwan and west of Okinawa, consist of only five small islands and three rocky outcroppings with a total landmass of no more than 7 square kilometres or 3 square miles. Apart from their miniscule size, the islands are uninhabited, are incapable of supporting human habitation for an extended period of time and are unlikely to support any economic life of their own from indigenous resources.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/655982.pdf

The U.S. Role in the Sino-Japanese Dispute over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, 1945–1971*

Title of Dissertation: TO DICTATE THE PEACE: POWER, STRATEGY AND SUCCESS IN MILITARY OCCUPATIONS Anthony S. Marcum, Doctor of Philosophy, 2015 Dissertation directed by: Professor Paul Huth Department of Government and Politics The dissertation addresses the following question: why do some states win a war only to lose the occupation whereas other states can successfully impose their preferred outcome via the control of foreign territory? For example, compare the United States’ failure in Iraq (2003-2008) to the Allied Powers’ success in France (1815-1818). To explain this variation, I develop and test a principal-agent model in which I incorporate the occupied elite’s costs of compliance and the occupier’s strategies of control. As agents, the occupied elites expect to incur significant domestic and international costs if they consent to the occupier’s demands, and thus have strong incentives to not comply. The occupying state can overcome this hostility through a costly exercise of power to shape the choices and manipulate the incentives of elites to influence their decision-making. Occupying states that engage in dictating as a strategy of control are compelling the elites to make a costly choice. By constraining the choice set to compliance or non-compliance with its terms, the occupying power can effectively separate strongly adverse elites from moderately or weakly adverse ones, and thereby gain a commitment to its objectives. Although previous work on occupations recognizes the difficulties in achieving success, the costs of compliance to the elite and the occupiers’ strategy of control are largely overlooked in previous scholarship. To evaluate the theoretical argument, I employ two research methods in the project. First, I built an original dataset to test the effects of the costs of compliance and the strategies of control on the outcomes of 137 military occupations that result from interstate wars between 1815 and 2003. The statistical analyses are paired with two plausibility probes: the Chilean Occupation of Peru (1881-1883) and the Soviet Occupation of North Korea (1945-1948). Second, I examine in-depth the American Occupation of Japan from 1945 to 1952. The case study investigates how the costs of compliance – across regime change, economic stabilization, and rearmament – generated resistance among Japanese politicians, and how the Americans exercised their power to dictate that the former comply with the latter’s costly terms during the course of the

To Dictate the Peace: Power, Strategy, and Success in Military Occupations

An Empire in Eclipse: Japan in the Postwar American Alliance System

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An Empire in Eclipse: Japan in the Postwar American Alliance System