Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.

/pdf/amplification-of-future-energy-demand-growth-due-to-climate-5ftapmgzpv.pdf

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system. Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.

/pdf/climate-change-impacts-on-the-energy-system-a-review-of-2yfkvq79dc.pdf

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps.

The recent International Panel on Climate Change report predicts the highly urbanized Northeastern U.S. to be at high risk to heat waves. Since urban residents and infrastructure are known to be highly vulnerable to extreme heat, the goal of this paper is to understand the interaction between the synoptic-scale heat wave and the city-scale urban heat island (UHI) effects. The study also qualitatively analyzes the primary factors that contribute to UHIs by comparing their intensities in different cities with distinct geo-physical characteristics. Our results, generated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model augmented with advanced urban surface parameterizations, confirm that the amplitude of UHI is related to the physical size of the city. However, the results suggest that cities of comparabale sizes might interact differently with heat waves: in New York City; Washington, DC; and Baltimore (but not in Philadelphia) the regular UHI was amplified more strongly during heat waves compared to smaller cities. The results also establish that the pattern of UHI in different cities, its variability, and its interaction with heat waves are inherently linked to dynamic factors.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016JD025357

Heatwaves and urban heat islands: A comparative analysis of multiple cities

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

/pdf/the-many-possible-climates-from-the-paris-agreement-s-aim-of-4mnhb0rt6d.pdf

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Urbanization modifies surface energy and water budgets, and has significant impacts on local and regional hydroclimate. In recent decades, a number of urban canopy models have been developed and implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to capture urban land-surface processes. Most of these models are inadequate due to the lack of realistic representation of urban hydrological processes. Here, we implement physically-based parametrizations of urban hydrological processes into the single layer urban canopy model in the WRF model. The new single-layer urban canopy model features the integration of, (1) anthropogenic latent heat, (2) urban irrigation, (3) evaporation from paved surfaces, and (4) the urban oasis effect. The new WRF–urban modelling system is evaluated against field measurements for four different cities; results show that the model performance is substantially improved as compared to the current schemes, especially for latent heat flux. In particular, to evaluate the performance of green roofs as an urban heat island mitigation strategy, we integrate in the urban canopy model a multilayer green roof system, enabled by the physical urban hydrological schemes. Simulations show that green roofs are capable of reducing surface temperature and sensible heat flux as well as enhancing building energy efficiency.

/pdf/enhancing-hydrologic-modelling-in-the-coupled-weather-1xm14twcbk.pdf

Enhancing Hydrologic Modelling in the Coupled Weather Research and Forecasting–Urban Modelling System

Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects: Volume 1, Global and Sectoral Aspects: Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

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Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects: Volume 1, Global and Sectoral Aspects: Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary