Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 4-1 Total pages: 139 1 Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand), Tuhin Ghosh 4 (India) 5 6 Lead Authors: Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), 7 Rob Deconto (USA), John Hay (Cook Islands), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Federico Isla (Argentina), 8 Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Zita Sebesvari 9 (Hungary), AJ Smit (South Africa), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Maya Buchanan (USA), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues 12 (Australia), Virginie Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas 13 Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), 14 Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), Robert J. Nicholls (UK), 15 Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Siyuan Xian 16 (USA) 17 18 Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) 19 20 Chapter Scientist Maya Buchanan (USA) 21 22 Date of Draft: 20 April 2018 23 24 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 25 26

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Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

The global response to warming of 1.5oC comprises transitions in land and ecosystem, energy, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems. The feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options, and the enabling conditions for strengthening and implementing the systemic changes, are assessed in this chapter.

Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response

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Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’ practices to enable communities to adapt and recover from such hazards. Some of these practices have been degraded and some assisted by modernisation. Through their effects on the island environment, these hazards have a range of socio-economic impacts on food (fisheries and crops) and water supply, tourism, and coastal buildings and infrastructure. The varied impacts of climate change not only exacerbate those hazards but also raise new threats, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification, that have no precedent in the past 500 years, and for which there are therefore no traditional adaptations, although Pacific innate ingenuity and resilience remains strong. These issues are particularly acute for the low-lying atoll countries whose continued existence is threatened by sea level rise, but also affect those that live on higher islands in coastal settlements, where most of their population is concentrated. Climate change thus sharpens social and cultural issues of equity (reflecting disparities in location, income, education, gender, health and age), made even more acute by increased levels of voluntary or forced migration within, and even more so beyond, island country boundaries. Consequently, many islanders see climate change as a moral challenge to the richer countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the problem.

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview

Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change adaptation. Our results show the relative contributions of some strategies to cope with social–ecological change have decreased (e.g., forecasting, storage, and mobility), while others have maintained but adapted (e.g., livelihood diversification, knowledge transmission and storage, communal pooling, and cultural identity), underscoring the importance of considering multiple strategies together to promote community resilience. The article argues that understanding how people responded in the past can suggest relevant and culturally appropriate ways—through specific language, values, reference points, and indicators expressed in narratives, proverbs, and songs—of situating climate change and framing adaptation planning. This research also shows that TEK is vital for adaptation to environmental change broadly and climate change in particular, for subsistence-based, indigenous, rural communities, as well as place-based communities living in mixed economies. Thus, it is relevant for the larger Pacific Islands region and other areas that represent a continuum from rural-to-urban and traditional-to-global economies and lifeways.

The future is behind us: traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai‘i Island

The characterization of Pacific Islands as especially vulnerable to climate change often undervalues the cultural resilience of their inhabitants. On many Micronesian islands, coastal stone-built structures are the most visible type of tangible cultural resilience and have endured for perhaps 1000 years or more. A distinction is recognized between older structures, likely built in response to sea-level rise during the Medieval Warm Period (AD 750–1250), and more recent structures that likely took advantage of the lowered sea level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1350–1800). Detailed studies of Micronesian responses to recent coastal change were undertaken in the islands of Yap (Proper). The positioning and maintenance of coastal men’s houses (faluw) reflect either pragmatic responses to unmanageable coastal change or a cultural determination to resist this. The long history of traditional responses to climate variability and coastal change for terrestrial food production on Yap is also discussed. Future adaptation pathways on Yap and other higher islands in Micronesia need to combine scientific knowledge of climate change with traditional responses to historical change, including the stonework tradition and the cultural determination to resist undesired coastal change.

Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean

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Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean