Abstract : Many airline industry experts have recently predicted crippling shortages in the supply of Airline Transport Pilots. The main reasons for concern in the United States over pilot shortages arises from recent legislation stemming from the 2009 Colgan air crash, an impending wave of mandatory retirements, a decreasing supply of new professional pilots into the pipeline, and major airline expansion. This study provides a comprehensive Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) supply and demand model and then assesses the current and future ATP supply and demand pipeline, to include the impact on the U.S. military pilot population. Subsequently, it evaluates policy options available to government, industry, and the military to mitigate any potential shortfalls in the future supply chain. This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. Barring any policy changes, the military will experience an inventory shortage in the near-term.

Late Morning Concurrent Sessions: Critical Issues: Presentation: Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation

Abstract : Under 10 U.S.C. 115b (National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2010, Section 1108), the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness has responsibility for developing and implementing the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) strategic workforce plan, in consultation with the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics. In keeping with the legislative requirements, DoD seeks to accelerate improvements to the department s workforce data, forecasting methods, tools, and analysis to develop a comprehensive, measurable planning process that drives strategic human capital management decisions within the Total Force construct. To achieve this aim, DoD needs to improve upon the tools available to analyze the civilian workforce DoD-wide and develop the data resources and capacity to engage in total workforce analysis. Workforce planning can be defined as having the right number of people with the right set of skills and competencies in the right job at the right time (Vernez et al., 2007). The basic goal is to close any gaps between the human resources an organization needs to carry out its mission (demand) and the human resources it has (supply). Effective workforce planning not only aids organizations in using resources effectively and ensuring that the organization has the staff needed to accomplish its objectives; it also can help organizations identify and mitigate workforce risks.

Options for Department of Defense Total Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis

: The Reserve Forces Policy Board (RFPB) tasked the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) to conduct an operational assessment of reserve component (RC) forces in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), from the years 2003 to 2011. IDA was to identify data that could be used to quantify RC performance, and where comparative analyses could be conducted. Enterprise-wide performance data was not captured by the Department of Defense (DOD), yet IDA was able to analyze data associated with mobility, aviation strike, and significant activities reports (SIGACTs), in addition to individual deployment, casualty, and mishap data. Analysis of these data depict no sizeable differences between active and reserve component forces, and highlight the shared burden and risk of RC forces in the prosecution of OIF.

/pdf/sharing-the-burden-and-risk-an-operational-assessment-of-the-4eqivok7ye.pdf

Sharing the Burden and Risk: An Operational Assessment of the Reserve Components in Operation Iraqi Freedom

: Many airline industry experts have recently predicted crippling shortages in the supply of Airline Transport Pilots. The main reasons for concern in the United States over pilot shortages arises from recent legislation stemming from the 2009 Colgan air crash, an impending wave of mandatory retirements, a decreasing supply of new professional pilots into the pipeline, and major airline expansion. This study provides a comprehensive Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) supply and demand model and then assesses the current and future ATP supply and demand pipeline, to include the impact on the U.S. military pilot population. Subsequently, it evaluates policy options available to government, industry, and the military to mitigate any potential shortfalls in the future supply chain. This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. Barring any policy changes, the military will experience an inventory shortage in the near-term.

/pdf/air-transport-pilot-supply-and-demand-current-state-and-2m6bhuwg1s.pdf

Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation

: In his General Ronald R. Fogleman Award-winning essay, Air National Guard Colonel MarkMeyer claimed, With a strong National Guard and its membership of citizen soldiers, nationalsecurity policy will remain consistent with the will of the people-the ultimate requirement ofour democracy. For Meyer and others, the Guards importance to American society runs fardeeper than the missions it conducts or the money it saves the U.S. Department of Defense.These advocates argue that the Guard historically has served as the linchpin for Americannational security, prevented the United States from fighting controversial foreign wars, and-most important of all-embodied the ideals of citizen soldier. While most of todays debateabout the active-reserve component mix rightly focuses on cost or utility, these historical andsociological claims also need to be critically evaluated.This analysis, conducted in RAND Project AIR FORCEs Strategy and Doctrine Program,evaluates these claims and examines the Guards* centrality to American national security* ability to prevent the United States from fighting controversial foreign wars* embodiment of the ideals of the citizen soldier.

/pdf/demystifying-the-citizen-soldier-4hn4xqapzf.pdf

Demystifying the Citizen Soldier

: As the Air Force plans and implements budget-driven force structure reductions, questions about the right mix of forces have emerged from the active component (AC), the reserve components (RC), and other stakeholders. This document seeks to illuminate the factors that bear on the suitability of various missions for assignment to the RC and should therefore be considered in force mix deliberations. We note at the outset that past force reductions have not been proportional across the components. Nor do we believe that proportionality should be the basis for future reductions. Rather, carefully assessed suitability of the AC and RC to provide force structure for various missions, with cost and effectiveness as a primary concerns, should drive force composition decisions. A primary consideration is the relative availability of the RC for meeting both strategic and operational taskings from combatant commanders. This availability is tempered by statutory and funding restrictions on the use of reservists for active missions. These restrictions establish a primary focus on reserve force training and administration by both full-time reservists and part-time reservists while funded under reserve appropriations. This reduces the utility of the RC as an operational reserve. We also found that management of the Military Personnel Appropriation (MPA) man-day program is not optimal for fully utilizing the RC as an operational reserve, primarily because the man-day program does not explicitly consider access to lower RC flying hour costs available in some missions. In our discussion of relative AC and RC costs, we stress that cost comparisons are meaningful only when costs are expressed in terms of useful unit outputs. For flying units, we identify those outputs as owned aircraft (with ready aircrews and maintenance workforces), total flying hours, and operational flying hours.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR429/RAND_RR429.pdf

Suitability of Missions for the Air Force Reserve Components

: The Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund (DAWDF) was established in 2008 to provide funds for the recruitment, training, and retention of acquisition personnel. The fund, which is financed by a combination of direct appropriations and funds provided by military departments and defense agencies, is meant to pay for initiatives in three major categories: recruit and hire new acquisition personnel, train and develop members of the existing workforce, and retain and recognize highly skilled personnel. Since the funds establishment, the U.S. Air Force has contributed more than $600 million to DAWDF and received more than $451 million for various initiatives. The Air Forces Director of Acquisition Career Management (DACM),who is in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Air Force Acquisition Career Management [SAF/AQH]), is responsible for managing the Air Forces share of the money. In recent years, resources available to the Air Force through DAWDF have been sufficient to pay for all proposals received by the DACM, so there has been little need to develop a formal process to prioritize them. Recognizing that this will not always be the case, the DACM asked the RAND Corporation to help explore ways to ensure that the funds are used effectively. To do this, we examined legislation, regulations, and other documents related to the fund; interviewed acquisition workforce subject-matter experts and users of DAWDF money in headquarters organizations, major commands (MAJCOM), and centers; analyzed acquisition workforce databases; and interviewed managers in 21 companies that have been recognized by Fortune magazine as being among the 100 Best Companies to Work For. Our findings and recommendations can be summarized in four categories: DAWDF management processes, evidence-based justification and metrics, lessons from industry, and a proposed evaluation framework.

/pdf/air-force-management-of-the-defense-acquisition-workforce-33c05ase94.pdf

Air Force Management of the Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund: Opportunities for Improvement

: The United States Air Force's current process for producing advanced academic degrees (AADs) requires career field managers (CFMs) to predict specific AAD-coded billet vacancies three to five years before they occur and then submit these requirements to the Air Force Education Requirements Board (AFERB) to fill those projected vacancies. Based on the reported vacancies and other criteria (such as the Chief of Staff's priorities), the AFERB provides quota allocations; any CFM requirements that do not receive a quota allocation become unfunded quota requirements. After an officer earns an AAD, the Air Force Personnel Center assigns the officer to an AAD-coded billet vacancy. The ideal result should be a 100 percent match rate between the Air Force funded AADs earned by officers and the education requirements of the corresponding AAD billet vacancies, irrespective of the number of funded quota allocations allotted at the AFERB. However, our analysis of 8,447 AAD assignments for officers who earned AADs from FY2000 through FY2010 shows that only 58 percent of officer assignments to master's degree billets and 33 percent of officer assignments to doctorate degree billets were made such that the officer's degree level and academic specialty matched the billet requirement. One reason for the low percentage of proper assignments is that the AAD assignment process does not deliberately match officers who have previously earned an AAD to unfunded quota requirements. Furthermore, our analysis points to a lower-than-desired utilization rate of officers who have earned Air Force funded AADs. Our analysis also shows that the career points at which personnel earn AADs are misaligned with the AAD billet grade structure. An analysis of FY2010 data shows that the number of personnel with Air Force funded master s degrees falls short of requirements in early years of service, but exceed requirements by the sixth year of service.

/pdf/a-methodology-for-determining-air-force-education-52h40lfhjr.pdf

A Methodology for Determining Air Force Education Requirements Board (AFERB) Advanced Academic Degree (AAD) Requirements

Abstract : The Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund (DAWDF) was established in 2008 to provide funds for the recruitment, training, and retention of acquisition personnel. The fund, which is financed by a combination of direct appropriations and funds provided by military departments and defense agencies, is meant to pay for initiatives in three major categories: recruit and hire new acquisition personnel, train and develop members of the existing workforce, and retain and recognize highly skilled personnel. Since the funds establishment, the U.S. Air Force has contributed more than $600 million to DAWDF and received more than $451 million for various initiatives. The Air Forces Director of Acquisition Career Management (DACM),who is in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Air Force Acquisition Career Management [SAF/AQH]), is responsible for managing the Air Forces share of the money. In recent years, resources available to the Air Force through DAWDF have been sufficient to pay for all proposals received by the DACM, so there has been little need to develop a formal process to prioritize them. Recognizing that this will not always be the case, the DACM asked the RAND Corporation to help explore ways to ensure that the funds are used effectively. To do this, we examined legislation, regulations, and other documents related to the fund; interviewed acquisition workforce subject-matter experts and users of DAWDF money in headquarters organizations, major commands (MAJCOM), and centers; analyzed acquisition workforce databases; and interviewed managers in 21 companies that have been recognized by Fortune magazine as being among the 100 Best Companies to Work For. Our findings and recommendations can be summarized in four categories: DAWDF management processes, evidence-based justification and metrics, lessons from industry, and a proposed evaluation framework.

Air Force Management of the Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund

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Suitability of Missions for the Air Force Reserve Components

Air Force Management of the Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund: Opportunities for Improvement

A Methodology for Determining Air Force Education Requirements Board (AFERB) Advanced Academic Degree (AAD) Requirements

Air Force Management of the Defense Acquisition Workforce Development Fund