Foundations Of Statistics

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

Unpredictable occurrence of any disaster emerges immeasurable demand in an affected society. Importance of immediate response in the aftermath of disaster is a crucial part of humanitarian logistic. Resource redistribution among the affected areas makes the optimal allocation in this chaotic situation. The research work has introduced a transportation plan considering the redistribution of resources from those areas which has already acquired relief and restored the normal condition to those areas still not being recovered from the effect of calamities. This research plan is developed to minimize the total cost of the relief operation as well as optimal allocation of the resources. The optimal allocation amidst the disruption of some resource storing points in the aftermath attack of disaster is also one of the key factors of the research. This research work has a great impact for decision-maker to derive an appropriate decision-making in such an anarchic situation of critical humanitarian supply chain. Due to the complexity of disaster, the model is considered in mixed uncertain environment. A numerical study is also performed to show the smooth functioning of the mathematical model assuming the uncertainty by trapezoidal neutrosophic number. Also, trapezoidal fuzzy number is implemented for uncertain parameters of the mathematical model and hereby compared with trapezoidal neutrosophic number.

An optimal redistribution plan considering aftermath disruption in disaster management

Disaster risk management (DRM) requires the collaboration of a variety of stakeholders working in different sectors. They depend on each other to share risk information, and effective collaboration requires efficient communication. Clearly, the communication of risk descriptions is a key issue for the success of DRM activities. This study investigated the communication of risk-related information between DRM actors, and how to present such information in order to improve its usefulness as a basis for decision-making. Two experiments were conducted to investigate the issue. The first related to the type of hazard, while the second examined the presentation of likelihood and consequences. We addressed two research questions: Does the presentation of a risk description influence its perceived usefulness for decision-making in a DRM system? If so, which format is perceived as most useful? Our findings indicated that the type of hazard did not affect perceived usefulness to any significant extent. However, the...

Communicating risk in disaster risk management systems – experimental evidence of the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions

Uncommon categorization, ie disparities in how similar terms and information is interpreted, coded and categorized, has been shown to impede inter-agency communication and collective sense-making This study focuses on the presence and effects of uncommon categorizations in disaster risk management systems We use the Swedish disaster risk management system as our case, and our empirical data consist of more than 120 reports from risk and vulnerability assessments, supplemented by 45 semi-qualitative interviews with officials who are involved in the realization of such assessments Apart from investigating the causes and effects of uncommon categorization, we also map its extent and character, and its development between the years 2010 and 2014 The study shows that uncommon categorization is prevalent in the Swedish disaster risk management system We argue that this has an extremely detrimental effect on the ability to integrate risk information, resulting in less useful bases for decisions and, thus, in a less efficient disaster risk management system Nevertheless, we can also see signs of a reduction in uncommon categorization in recent years

On common terms with shared risks – Studying the communication of risk between local, regional and national authorities in Sweden

https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/ws/files/3646302/5464138.pdf

On the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions for decision-making in disaster risk management

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On the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions for decision-making in disaster risk management