Introduction Previous studies have demonstrated significant changes in social contacts during the first-wave coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese mainland. The purpose of this study was to quantify the time-varying contact patterns by age in Chinese mainland in 2020 and evaluate their impact on the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods Diary-based contact surveys were performed for four periods: baseline (prior to 2020), outbreak (February 2020), post-lockdown (March–May 2020), and post-epidemic (September–November 2020). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to evaluate the effect of reducing contacts on transmission. Results During the post-epidemic period, daily contacts resumed to 26.7%, 14.8%, 46.8%, and 44.2% of the pre-COVID levels in Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha, respectively. This suggests a moderate risk of resurgence in Changsha, Shenzhen, and Wuhan, and a low risk in Shanghai. School closure alone was not enough to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, but with the addition of a 75% reduction of contacts at the workplace, it could lead to a 16.8% reduction of the attack rate. To control an outbreak, concerted strategies that target schools, workplaces, and community contacts are needed. Discussion Monitoring contact patterns by age is key to quantifying the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and evaluating the impact of intervention strategies.

https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/pdf/preview/10.46234/ccdcw2023.021

Estimating Changes in Contact Patterns in China Over the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Spread — Four Cities, China, 2020

Contact patterns play a key role in the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in human populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic the regular contact patterns of the population has been disrupted due to social distancing both imposed by the authorities and individual choices. Here we present the results of a contact survey conducted in Chinese provinces outside Hubei in March 2020, right after lockdowns were lifted. We then leveraged the estimated mixing patterns to calibrate a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which was used to estimate different metrics of COVID-19 burden by age. Study participants reported 2.3 contacts per day (IQR: 1.0-3.0) and the mean per-contact duration was 7.0 hours (IQR: 1.0-10.0). No significant differences were observed between provinces, the number of recorded contacts did not show a clear-cut trend by age, and most of the recorded contacts occurred with family members (about 78%). Our findings suggest that, despite the lockdown was no longer in place at the time of the survey, people were still heavily limiting their contacts as compared to the pre-pandemic situation. Moreover, the obtained modeling results highlight the importance of considering age-contact patterns to estimate COVID-19 burden.

Quantifying human mixing patterns in Chinese provinces outside Hubei after the 2020 lockdown was lifted

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Quantifying human mixing patterns in Chinese provinces outside Hubei after the 2020 lockdown was lifted