The model uncertainty, one of the major sources of projection uncertainty, is still a challenge in the climate simulation. In this study, we investigated the inter-model spread of the simulated winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the Eurasian continent and the physical link to the upper-level jet streams from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 models. Extracted by the inter-model empirical orthogonal function analysis, the leading inter-model spread of SAT over the Eurasian continent is characterized by a cold pattern, particularly over high latitudes, which is closely associated with the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). The weakened-EAPJ-enhanced-EASJ pattern is linked to the intensified Siberian high, the strengthened Aleutian low, and the deepened East Asian trough. All the variations would benefit the cold air invasion, resulting in the leading inter-model spread of the SAT. The possible mechanism for the inter-model uncertainty in the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the two jets would be traced to the cooling over the Northwest Pacific oceans, which has reduced (enhanced) the meridional temperature gradient over high (low) latitudes and thereby contributed to the out of phase variation in the two jets. Our findings would help provide a potential metric for understanding the winter SAT change over the Eurasian continent. 

Inter‐Model Spread of the Simulated Winter Surface Air Temperature Over the Eurasian Continent and the Physical Linkage to the Jet Streams From the CMIP6 Models

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions regulates hydrological cycles, water sustainability, and ecosystem functions in the cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Previous studies often focused on the impacts of rising temperature on the ALT, while the roles of soil water content and soil granularity have rarely been investigated. Here, we incorporate alterations of soil water contents in soil thermal properties across various soil granularities and assess spatiotemporal ALT dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The regional average ALT on the QTP is projected to be nearly 4 m by 2100. Our results indicate that soil wetting decelerates the active layer thickening in response to warming, while latent heat exerts stronger control on ALTs than thermal conductivity does. Under similar warming conditions, active layers thicken faster in coarse soils than in fine soils. An important ramification of this study is that neglecting soil wetting may cause overestimations of active layer thickening on the QTP.

How does soil water content influence permafrost evolution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate warming?

Corals in the northern Red Sea exhibit high thermal tolerance despite the increasing heat stress. It is assumed that corals throughout the Red Sea have similar bleaching thresholds (32°C or higher), and hence greater bleaching tolerance of corals in the northern Red Sea region is likely due to lower ambient water temperatures (25–28°C) that remain well below the corals’ physiological maxima. Whether bleaching patterns across the Red Sea are independent of the local maximum monthly mean of seawater temperature and aligned with an assumed 32°C threshold has yet to be determined. Here, we used remotely sensed surface sea temperature data spanning 1982–2020 to model spatial distributions of Degree Heat Weeks across the Red Sea in relation to assumed coral thermal threshold values of 30, 31, and 32°C. We also used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model outputs to predict warming trends in the Red Sea under different greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We show that applying 32°C thresholds dramatically reduces effective Degree Heat Weeks in the north, but not in central or southern Red Sea regions, a finding that is consistent with historical bleaching observations throughout the Red Sea. Further, model predictions under the most extreme RCP8.5 scenario exhibited ~3°C warming by the end of the 21st century (1998-2020) throughout the Red Sea with less pronounced warming for the northern Red Sea (2–2.5°C) compared to the central and southern regions (2.7–3.1°C). This warming rate will remain below the assumed thermal threshold for the northern Red Sea which should help this region to serve as refugia (i.e., maintaining favorable temperatures) for corals to persist for decades ahead. Together, our results support the notion that corals have similar thresholds throughout the Red Sea; hence, coral bleaching thresholds are independent of the local maximum monthly mean. Consequently, where regional warming projections suggest the northern Red Sea will not reach assumed bleaching thresholds (32°C) before the end of the 21st century, coral reefs in the northern region may be among the last standing against climate change.

/pdf/appraisal-of-coral-bleaching-thresholds-and-thermal-rcynwj76.pdf

Appraisal of coral bleaching thresholds and thermal projections for the northern Red Sea refugia

The model uncertainty, one of the major sources of projection uncertainty, is still a challenge in the climate simulation. In this study, we investigated the inter‐model spread of the simulated winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the Eurasian continent and the physical link to the upper‐level jet streams from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 models. Extracted by the inter‐model empirical orthogonal function analysis, the leading inter‐model spread of SAT over the Eurasian continent is characterized by a cold pattern, particularly over high latitudes, which is closely associated with the out‐of‐phase variation in the intensity of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). The weakened‐EAPJ‐enhanced‐EASJ pattern is linked to the intensified Siberian high, the strengthened Aleutian low, and the deepened East Asian trough. All the variations would benefit the cold air invasion, resulting in the leading inter‐model spread of the SAT. The possible mechanism for the inter‐model uncertainty in the out‐of‐phase variation in the intensity of the two jets would be traced to the cooling over the Northwest Pacific oceans, which has reduced (enhanced) the meridional temperature gradient over high (low) latitudes and thereby contributed to the out of phase variation in the two jets. Our findings would help provide a potential metric for understanding the winter SAT change over the Eurasian continent.

The systematic simulated cold biases in models for surface air temperature (SAT) over China have been under discussion for a long time, but the related attribution is still unclear. In this study, we investigate the main contributors and relevant physical processes of SAT biases over China based on 31 models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) from a surface energy budget perspective. On annual and seasonal scales, less downward clear‐sky longwave radiation in the models, which is due to the underestimated tropospheric temperature and water vapor amount, is the main cause of cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau, Tarim Basin, Sichuan Basin and most of eastern China. Meanwhile, the simulation biases in surface albedo and sensible heat flux induce cold biases depending on regions and seasons. In winter and spring, the overestimated surface albedo in association with more snow cover leads to prevalent cold biases over the western Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China. Excessive sensible heat release caused by the overestimated ground–air temperature difference facilitates SAT underestimation in the Sichuan Basin during summer and autumn. In addition, the cold biases in winter and spring are larger than those in summer and autumn, due to the stronger snow cover overestimation and tropospheric temperature underestimation.

Understanding Surface Air Temperature Cold Bias over China in CMIP6 Models

An assessment of temperature simulations by CMIP6 climate models over the Tibetan Plateau and differences with CMIP5 climate models

The Asian–Pacific oscillation over the past millennium in PMIP3 and PMIP4

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An assessment of temperature simulations by CMIP6 climate models over the Tibetan Plateau and differences with CMIP5 climate models

The Asian–Pacific oscillation over the past millennium in PMIP3 and PMIP4