Abstract This paper documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people’s subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of experiments on choice under risk, the formation of beliefs and forecasts of economic variables, we show that cognitive uncertainty predicts various systematic biases in economic decisions. When people are cognitively uncertain—either endogenously or because the problem is designed to be complex—their decisions are heavily attenuated functions of objective probabilities, which gives rise to average behavior that is regressive to an intermediate option. This insight ties together a wide range of empirical regularities in behavioral economics that are typically viewed as distinct phenomena or even as reflecting preferences, including the probability weighting function in choice under risk; base rate insensitivity, conservatism, and sample size effects in belief updating; and predictable overoptimism and -pessimism in forecasts of economic variables. Our results offer a blueprint for how a simple measurement of cognitive uncertainty generates novel insights about what people find complex and how they respond to it. 

Cognitive Uncertainty

A variety of surgical procedures exist for repair of both traumatic and degenerative osseous and soft-tissue pathologic conditions involving the foot and ankle. It is necessary for the radiologist to be familiar with these surgical procedures, so as to assess structural integrity, evaluate for complicating features, and avoid diagnostic pitfalls. Adequate interpretation of postoperative changes often requires access to surgical documentation to evaluate not only the surgery itself but the expected timeline for resolution of normal postoperative changes versus progressive disease. Appropriate use of surgical language in radiology reports is another important skill set to hone and is instrumental in providing a high-quality report to the referring surgeons. The pathophysiology of a myriad of surgical complaints, beginning from the Achilles tendon and concluding at the plantar plate, are presented, as are their common appearances at computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. Commonly encountered entities include Achilles tendon tear, spastic equinus, nonspastic equinus, talar dome osteochondral defect, tarsal tunnel syndrome, plantar fasciitis, pes planovalgus, pes cavovarus, peroneal tendinosis, lateral ligament complex pathology, Morton neuroma, plantar plate tear, and metatarsophalangeal joint instability. Computer-generated three-dimensional models are included with many of the procedures to provide a more global view of the surgical anatomy. Correlation with intraoperative photographs is made when available. When appropriate, discussion of postoperative complications, including entities such as infection and failure of graft integration, is presented, although a comprehensive review of postoperative complications is beyond the scope of this article. Notably absent from the current review are some common foot and ankle procedures including hallux valgus and hammertoe corrections, as these are more often evaluated radiographically than with cross-sectional imaging. ©RSNA, 2016.

CT and MR Imaging of the Postoperative Ankle and Foot

We explain how to evaluate the fundamental price of utility tokens. Our model endogenizes the velocity of circulation of tokens and yields a pricing formula that is fully microfounded. According to our approach, tokens are valuable because they have to be immediately accessible when the platform service is needed, a requirement that is reminiscent of the cash-in-advance constraint in the theory of money.

Fundamental Pricing of Utility Tokens

Purpose of reviewThe purpose of this review is to discuss the epidemiology, pathoanatomy, diagnosis, and treatment for lateral ankle instability in pediatric patients.Recent findingsChronic ankle instability is a common sequela of lateral ankle sprain in young athletes. Incidence is increasing, poss

Pediatric and adolescent ankle instability: diagnosis and treatment options.

Tears of the peroneus brevis tendon may cause ankle pain, swelling, and instability. Supportive therapy with ankle bracing and analgesics is the mainstay of therapy, but surgical repair is often required in patients with ongoing symptoms. Surgical options include debridement, tubularization, or, in severe cases, resection of the damaged tendon and tenodesis. We describe a 64-year-old woman with a split peroneus brevis tendon presenting with lateral ankle pain, swelling, and instability, and we review the literature regarding presentation, diagnostic testing, pathophysiology, predisposing factors, and treatment recommendations. Primary care physicians should consider peroneal tendon injuries in patients with chronic lateral ankle pain and instability.

/pdf/split-peroneus-brevis-tendon-an-unusual-cause-of-ankle-pain-4wjtqcqp7j.pdf

Split Peroneus Brevis Tendon: An Unusual Cause of Ankle Pain and Instability

Does High Frequency Market Manipulation Harm Market Quality?

On the Decision-Relevance of Subjective Beliefs

A Criterion of Model Decisiveness

I study the problem of persuading a boundedly rational agent without controlling or knowing the piece of information she observes. Persuasion occurs by providing models whereby the persuader can communicate ways of interpreting observable signals. The key assumption is that the agent adopts the model that best ﬁts what is observed, given her initial beliefs, and takes the action that maximizes her expected utility under the adopted model. I characterize the extent of belief manipulability in this setting and show that the agent may hold inconsistent beliefs across signal realizations — posterior beliefs across realizations do not average to the prior — because each signal may trigger the adoption of a diﬀerent model. While persuasion can mislead the agent, the extent to which she is vulnerable to it is driven by her initial beliefs. Polarization is inevitable if agents with suf-ﬁciently diﬀerent priors are exposed to the same conﬂicting models. I apply this framework to political polarization, conﬂict of interests in ﬁnance, lobbying, and self-persuasion.

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