The exchange rate pass-through for a small open economy in the case of Australian manufactured imports in estimated by applying an econometrics procedure which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies to a carefully assembled data set. For the first time in the literature, estimate of pass-through based on the Johansen (1988) Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedure are provided. It is found that incomplete pass-through has important implications for policy and the macroeconomy.

Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the inflationary impact of exchange rate depreciation in South Africa over the period 1984-1998 when the monetary authorities adopted a more market-oriented exchange rate system. Although the empirical part of the paper extensively focuses on this period, the analysis also concentrates on the period 1973-1983 to determine whether the underlying causes of inflation have changed following significant structural, political and institutional changes. From a macroeconomic perspective, the empirical results show that the long-run causes of inflation in South Africa have changed from a demand-pull inflation over the period 1973-1983, to a cost-push cause (import prices and wage rate changes) of inflation since 1987 when a market determined exchange rate finally stabilised.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/105544/1/0005.pdf

Imported Inflation in South Africa: An Empirical Study

This study assesses the extent to which exchange rate changes affect Irish import prices (i.e. the extent of exchange rate pass-through, PT) by analysing data from the 1963 to 1995 period. The paper fills two important gaps in the literature: i) by making due allowance for the time series properties of the data and ii) by concentrating on the case of a small open economy. The majority of international empirical studies in the area do not provide support for full, or close to full, PT. Reasons put forward for this finding include the "menu" costs associated with altering prices, hedging techniques, intra-firm pricing by multinationals, the existence of non-tariff barriers, and the entry/exit of firms associated with exchange rate induced price changes. If the proposition of monetary neutrality is accepted, however, full PT would be expected to hold over the medium to long run. Many previous studies assess the degree of PT by relating import prices to the exchange rate, foreign costs and domestic competing prices. The usual approach involves estimating a single equation and using the estimated coefficients to assess the degree of PT. It is argued in this paper, however, that such single equation estimation will lead to estimates of the degree of PT which appear too low because the strong relationship between import and domestic-competing prices will not be properly taken into account using such a technique. This study makes use of the so-called Johansen technique to allow for this problem and uncovers two long-run relationships among the data, i.e. one between import unit values, the exchange rate and foreign costs and another between domestic competing prices and the same two variables. In so doing, it confirms the existence of very close to full PT in the case of both Irish import prices and domestic competing prices. Many of the previous results in the literature demonstrating substantially less than full PT may be due to the failure to make proper allowance for the time series properties of the data or for the strong relationship which exists between import and domestic competing prices. Finally, it is found that the speed of adjustment to the long-run relationships appears to be quite low, thus supporting the existence of incomplete PT in the short run.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Irish Import Prices

The paper seeks to determine the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Nigeria using recursive vector autoregression (VAR) model. It uses data from first quarter 2000 to fourth quarter 2013. The results of the investigation show that exchange rate fluctuation has a positive and insignificant effect on consumer prices and the increase in consumer prices are mainly due to its own shocks and the increase in money supply in the long run. A stable monetary policy with a low inflationary environment will lessen the pressure of exchange rate changes on consumer prices. So, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be less concern with the inflation impact of exchange rate shocks and focus fully on other objectives such as growth and export competitiveness in designing exchange rate policy.

/pdf/exchange-rate-pass-through-in-nigeria-2hln6l5hhf.pdf

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Nigeria

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through for Australian manufactured imports by applying an econometric procedure which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies to a carefully assembled data set. For the first time, we provide estimates of pass-through based on the Johansen (1988) ML procedure. Our finding of incomplete pass-through has important implications for policy and the macroeconomy. Incomplete pass-through brings into question the validity of the "small" country assumption and the exogeneity of the terms of trade with respect to exchange rate changes. We may also have to reconsider the extent of the apparent inflationary (deflationary) consequences of exchange rate depreciations (appreciations), and the effects of exchange rate variability on international trade flows.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through for Australian Manufactured Imports: Estimates from the Johansen Maximum-Likelihood Procedure

Exchange rates, import prices, and the macroeconomy

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Exchange rates, import prices, and the macroeconomy