Introduction to Operations Research. By C. West Chubchman, R. L. Ackoff and E. L. Arnoff. 96s. 1957. (Chapman & Hall)

Many existing research efforts in the field of malware proliferation aim at modelling and analysing its spread dynamics. Many malware dissemination models are based on the characteristics of biological disease spread in human populations. In this work, we utilise game theory in order to extend two very commonly used malware spread models (SIS and SIR) by incorporating defence strategies against malware proliferation. We consider three different security mechanisms, “patch”, “removal” and “patch and removal” on which our model is based. We also propose a cost-benefit model that describes optimal strategies the defender could follow when cost is taken into account. Lastly, as a way of illustration, we apply our models on the well studied Code-Red worm.

/pdf/game-theoretic-approach-for-cost-benefit-analysis-of-malware-425uz5ddne.pdf

Game Theoretic Approach for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Malware Proliferation Prevention

Literature in malware proliferation focuses on modeling and analyzing its spread dynamics. Epidemiology models, which are inspired by the characteristics of biological disease spread in human populations, have been used against this threat to analyze the way malware spreads in a network. This work presents a modified version of the commonly used epidemiology models Susceptible Infected Recovered SIR and Susceptible Infected Susceptible SIS, which incorporates the ability to capture the relationships between nodes within a network, along with their effect on malware dissemination process. Drawing upon a model that illustrates the network’s behavior based on the attacker’s and the defender’s choices, we use game theory to compute optimal strategies for the defender to minimize the effect of malware spread, at the same time minimizing the security cost. We consider three defense mechanisms: patch, removal, and patch and removal, which correspond to the defender’s strategy and use probabilistically with a certain rate. The attacker chooses the type of attack according to its effectiveness and cost. Through the interaction between the two opponents we infer the optimal strategy for both players, known as Nash Equilibrium, evaluating the related payoffs. Hence, our model provides a cost-benefit risk management framework for managing malware spread in computer networks.

/pdf/a-game-theoretical-method-for-cost-benefit-analysis-of-1h3ayic62e.pdf

A Game Theoretical Method for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Malware Dissemination Prevention

This study evaluates military intelligence as the process of data collection and knowledge development and assessment for decision-making by the military and other governmental agencies. We argue t...

Intelligence, Cyberspace, and National Security

A Master of Science thesis in Engineering Systems Management by Mohammed Zaher Hammadih entitled, "Socially Motivated Approach to Simulate Negotiation Process," submitted in May 2014. Thesis advisor is Dr. Ibrahim Al Kattan. Available are both soft and hard copies of the thesis.

Socially Motivated Approach to Simulate Negotiation Process

The interactive behavior between the hacker and the defender is similar to information warfare. The process of attack and defend can be abstracted as a tree diagram and analyzed based on game theory. When a hacker launches an attack, he must do his best to get expected payoff. Similarly the defender may hope to protect system against attacker successfully by minimizing security investment. The tradeoff between attack and defense is hard to keep accurately by means of traditional experience rule. In this paper, we try to solve the problem quickly with the help of game theory. A simple and effective way based on the minimax theorem in game theory is presented. In zero-sum games, the minimax solution is the same as the Nash equilibrium. Thus those strategies listed in probability spread can satisfy both involvers. The result accords with the real scenario in common network environment.

A Game Theoretic Approach to Decision and Analysis in Strategies of Attack and Defense

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A Game Theoretic Approach to Decision and Analysis in Strategies of Attack and Defense