This paper examines the effects of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity by utilizing a flexible, dynamic, multivariate framework that accommodates possible interaction between the conditional means and variances. The empirical model is based on a familiar identified vector autoregressive framework, modified to accommodate multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Our empirical model is preferred to the baseline VAR by likelihood based information criteria, and it retains the important dynamics of the underlying VAR. We find that an average shock to inflation uncertainty has tended to reduce output growth over three months by about 22 basis points.

Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty

This paper considers the effects of inflation on employment. The absence of index-linked loans and the possibility that errors are committed in times of inflation, lead to a higher probability of bankruptcy during inflation. If firms care about bankruptcy, this implies a lower level of employment. Empirical results confirming this are presented, and suggest that higher inflation has substantially contributed to the fall in employment in the United Kingdom. The authors also demonstrate that a negative real-wage elasticity is not robust to changes in specification. Copyright 1987 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

The Effects of Inflation and Real Wages on Employment

Monetary phenomena define the contours of the contemporary global economy. This is a recent development, and it will transform the study of international political economy (IPE). Two excellent new books, The Geography of Money, by Benjamin Cohen, and Mad Money, by Susan Strange, will frame, support, and provide the point of departure for scholars addressing this vital question. Ultimately, however, and perhaps necessarily, these books raise more questions than they answer. But they do suggest in which direction the most promising avenues of investigation point—toward the study of the unique interconnections between the ideas, material interests, and institutions associated with the management of money. Those relationships are profoundly consequential for politics and demand the renewed attention of contemporary scholars of international relations and political economy.

The Study of Money

This article describes the early phases of the development of the market for indexed government debt in the United States. The first such bonds were issued in 1997--one set with a maturity of ten years, the other with a maturity of five years. In the wake of the Treasury issuance, several non-Treasury borrowers have issued indexed debt and several new index-linked products for retail customers have been introduced. As expected, the new indexed notes have 'outperformed' conventional nominal notes in the secondary markets for Treasury debt when bad news has become available about inflation and conversely.

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.12.1.219

Policy Watch: The Introduction of Indexed Government Debt in the United States

Inflation and relative prices: A system–wide approach☆

Inflation Theory and Anti-Inflation Policy

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Inflation Theory and Anti-Inflation Policy