Spatial Models Of Parliamentary Voting

Abstract The global nuclear order had been challenged in recent years by individual proliferators, the moribund US–Russian arms-control process and resultant frustration over stalled progress towards disarmament. Then Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine under cover of nuclear threats against NATO. This has neither exposed the international nuclear-governance regime as toothless nor brought it to the verge of collapse. The global nuclear order’s history shows its resilience to rogue acts by great powers. It will continue to serve key nuclear-capable states’ security and energy interests in the non-proliferation domain. Arms control between Washington and Moscow has always been sensitive to their strategic whims and can be reconstituted. The main consequence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war is renewed public awareness of the often unpalatable role nuclear weapons play in international politics. Nuclear targeting, deterrent threats and associated risk-reduction efforts are hardly new phenomena.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00396338.2022.2103255?needAccess=true

The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order

Counting repressive events is difficult because state leaders have an incentive to conceal actions of their subordinates and destroy evidence of abuse. In this article, we extend existing latent va...

Estimating one-sided-killings from a robust measurement model of human rights:

Mining large corpora can generate useful discoveries but is time-consuming for humans. We formulate a new task, D5, that automatically discovers differences between two large corpora in a goal-driven way. The task input is a problem comprising a research goal"$\textit{comparing the side effects of drug A and drug B}$"and a corpus pair (two large collections of patients' self-reported reactions after taking each drug). The output is a language description (discovery) of how these corpora differ (patients taking drug A"$\textit{mention feelings of paranoia}$"more often). We build a D5 system, and to quantitatively measure its performance, we 1) contribute a meta-dataset, OpenD5, aggregating 675 open-ended problems ranging across business, social sciences, humanities, machine learning, and health, and 2) propose a set of unified evaluation metrics: validity, relevance, novelty, and significance. With the dataset and the unified metrics, we confirm that language models can use the goals to propose more relevant, novel, and significant candidate discoveries. Finally, our system produces discoveries previously unknown to the authors on a wide range of applications in OpenD5, including temporal and demographic differences in discussion topics, political stances and stereotypes in speech, insights in commercial reviews, and error patterns in NLP models.

pdf/goal-driven-discovery-of-distributional-differences-via-3fzotr5y.pdf

Goal Driven Discovery of Distributional Differences via Language Descriptions

We introduce “antifragility” as a conceptual framework to understand the impact of occasional violations of regime norms on the health of respective regimes. Contrary to the prevailing understanding of norm violation as a strictly negative phenomenon that leaves regimes damaged, we show that normative deviance is, under certain conditions, a stressor that helps predominantly antifragile systems learn, improve, and adapt to changes in both internal and external environments. We apply this conceptual framework to the case of the NPT regime and the prominent violations of its nonproliferation norms by India in the 1970s (as a “contestation from outside”) and Iraq in the 1990s (as a “contestation from within”). Our findings question the prevailing catastrophizing narrative about the strictly negative impact of norm violations on regime stability and contribute to contemporary scholarly debates about norm dynamics within the NPT.

NPT as an antifragile system: How contestation improves the nonproliferation regime

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is a landmark international treaty that is widely regarded as a cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. However, pes...

Is the NPT unraveling? Evidence from text analysis of review conference statements:

The European Parliament is one of most prominent substantive applications of NOMINATE to the study of roll call voting outside the U.S., yielding tremendous insights into the voting patterns of the world’s most important transnational parliament. However, this body of research cannot facilitate comparisons of ideological shifts over time, because it exclusively employs scaling models that are static. In this paper, I produce dynamic ideal point estimates for the first six European Parliaments from 1980 to 2009 that can be compared over time. These estimates show a significant amount of ideological shifting for some Members of the European Parliament. I explain the measurement strategy, and compare cross-sectional estimates to existing measures as a validity check. I also offer three applications highlighting the types projects that scholars of the European Parliament might wish to use these dynamic measures to study further.

Dynamic ideal point estimation for the European Parliament, 1980–2009

The observation, measurement, and analysis of violent and contentious processes are essential parts of the scientific study of peace and conflict. However, concepts such as the level of repression,...

Innovations in concepts and measurement for the study of peace and conflict

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Is the NPT unraveling? Evidence from text analysis of review conference statements:

Dynamic ideal point estimation for the European Parliament, 1980–2009

Innovations in concepts and measurement for the study of peace and conflict