Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from extended foraging periods in formerly ice-covered seas, but (3) they may face increasing competition from seasonally migrant species, which will likely infiltrate Arctic habitats. The means to track and assess Arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1890/06-0571.1

Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience

The earth’s climate is changing, possibly at an unprecedented rate Overall, the planet is warming, sea ice and glaciers are in retreat, sea level is rising, and pollutants are accumulating in the environment and within organisms These clear physical changes undoubtedly affect marine ecosystems Species dependent on sea ice, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and the ringed seal (Phoca hispida), provide the clearest examples of sensitivity to climate change Responses of cetaceans to climate change are more difficult to discern, but in the eastern North Pacific evidence is emerging that gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) are delaying their southbound migration, expanding their feeding range along the migration route and northward to Arctic waters, and even remaining in polar waters over winter—all indications that North Pacific and Arctic ecosystems are in transition To use marine mammals as sentinels of ecosystem change, we must expand our existing research strategies to encompass the decadal and ocean-basin temporal and spatial scales consistent with their natural histories

https://www.sanignaciograywhales.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/sue-moore-sentinels-jun-2008-jmamm.pdf

Marine Mammals as Ecosystem Sentinels

This review provides an overview of prey preferences of seven core Arctic marine mammal species (AMM) and four non-core species on a pan-Arctic scale with regional examples. Arctic marine mammal species exploit prey resources close to the sea ice, in the water column, and at the sea floor, including lipid-rich pelagic and benthic crustaceans and pelagic and ice-associated schooling fishes such as capelin and Arctic cod. Prey preferred by individual species range from cephalopods and benthic bivalves to Greenland halibut. A few AMM are very prey-, habitat-, and/or depth-specific (e.g., walrus, polar bear), while others are rather opportunistic and, therefore, likely less vulnerable to change (e.g., beluga, bearded seal). In the second section, we review prey distribution patterns and current biomass hotspots in the three major physical realms (sea ice, water column, and seafloor), highlighting relations to environmental parameters such as advection patterns and the sea ice regime. The third part of the contribution presents examples of documented changes in AMM prey distribution and biomass and, subsequently, suggests three potential scenarios of large-scale biotic change, based on published observations and predictions of environmental change. These scenarios discuss (1) increased pelagic primary and, hence, secondary production, particularly in the central Arctic, during open-water conditions in the summer (based on surplus nutrients currently unutilized); (2) reduced benthic and pelagic biomass in coastal/shelf areas (due to increased river runoff and, hence, changed salinity and turbidity conditions); and (3) increased pelagic grazing and recycling in open-water conditions at the expense of the current tight benthic-pelagic coupling in part of the ice-covered shelf regions (due to increased pelagic consumption vs. vertical flux). Should those scenarios hold true, pelagic-feeding and generalist AMM might be advantaged, while the range for benthic shelf-feeding, ice-dependent AMM such as walrus would decrease. New pelagic feeding grounds may open up to AMM and subarctic marine mammal species in the High Arctic basins while nearshore waters might provide less abundant food in the future.

/pdf/regional-variability-in-food-availability-for-arctic-marine-1sha0vewci.pdf

Regional variability in food availability for Arctic marine mammals.

Publisher Summary The gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is the only living species in the family Eschrichtiidae. It is a slow-moving sturdy mysticete, slimmer than right whales and stockier than most rorquals. It attains a maximum length of 15.3 m (50 ft) and its skin is mottled light to dark gray with whitish blotches and heavily infested with barnacles and cyamids, or “ whale lice, ” especially on the head. Instead of a dorsal fin, the back has a hump followed by a series of fleshy knobs, or “ knuckles” along the tailstock. The behavioral ecology of the gray whale is unique among mysticetes, as it is the most coastal; makes the longest migration; calves in warm bays, lagoons, and coastal areas; and is an intermittent suction feeder that regularly forages on benthos, apart from feeding opportunistically on plankton and nekton by gulping and skimming. Once found throughout the Northern Hemisphere, the gray whale became extinct in the Atlantic and now is a relict species confined to the productive neritic and estuarine waters of the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent waters of the Arctic Ocean. The eastern population (also called the American , California , or Chukchi stock) occurs in the eastern North Pacific and Amerasian Arctic Oceans, whereas the remnant western population (also called the Asian , Korean , or Okhotsk stock ) occurs in the western North Pacific (off Asia). The western gray whale is now a remnant population close to extinction that occurs off Russia, Japan, Korea, and China and is one of the most critically endangered populations of whales.

Gray Whale: Eschrichtius robustus

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14573

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Although the Bering and Chukchi seas are commonly cited as the principal summer feeding grounds of Eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales (e.g., Highsmith et al. in press, Swartz et al. 2006), records indicate that this population actually feeds opportunistically throughout its range from the lagoons of Baja California, Mexico, to Alaskan waters (Nerini 1984). Specifically, recent reports suggest that whales may routinely feed in the Gulf of California (Sanchez-Pacheco et al. 2001) and Bahia Magdalena, Baja California Sur (Caraveo-Patino and Soto 2005), whereas Clapham et al. (1997) noted that feeding gray whales occurred offshore California even in the 1920s when population numbers were very low. The dynamic nature of foraging in this population is best described from coastal study sites along the southeastern shore of Vancouver Island, Canada, where whales shift among pelagic, epi-benthic, and benthic prey within and between years (Darling et al. 1998; Dunham and Duffus 2001, 2002). In the 1980s the southern Chukchi Sea and the Chirikov Basin in the northern Bering Sea were considered the primary feeding grounds for ENP gray whales, based on reported high densities of both whales (Braham 1984, Kim and Oliver 1989, Moore et al. 2000) and their ampelicid amphipod prey (Grebmeier et al. 1989, Highsmith and Coyle 1990). However, by 2002, benthic productivity in the Chirikov Basin had declined precipitously, due to either whale foraging (Highsmith et al. 2006), ecosystem change (Grebmeier et al. 2006), or both, and only the southern Chukchi Sea supported dense aggregations of gray whales (Moore et al. 2003). Indeed, the

/pdf/gray-whale-occurrence-and-forage-southeast-of-kodiak-island-3oussqfdht.pdf

Gray whale occurrence and forage southeast of kodiak, island, alaska

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Gray whale occurrence and forage southeast of kodiak, island, alaska