The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa

In order for a scientific innovation to reach a wide audience it needs to travel through diverse networks and be understandable to a variety of people. This paper focuses on networks of stakeholders involved in the diffusion of seasonal climate forecasts. It is argued that understanding stakeholder networks is key to determining the opportunities and barriers to the flow of forecast information, which could enable more focused forecast dissemination. Lesotho is used as a case study where Stakeholder Thematic Networks (STNs) are used as a novel method for investigating forecast dissemination. STNs enable qualitative information to be analysed through semi-quantitative mapping of relationships that enable the networks and scales of linkages to be visualised. This illustrates the types of nodes and channels of seasonal forecast information flow and so enables existing or emerging patterns of dissemination to be uncovered. Sub-networks that exist for purposes other than climate information dissemination are identified as salient sub-networks for focusing development of future forecast dissemination. These existing sub-networks enable stakeholder needs to be addressed and decrease the need for new networks to be established. By using these sub-networks, information relating to climate variability can be mainstreamed into existing development pathways. This is critical to recognise if innovations relating to climate information are to be used to improve climate change adaptation.

/pdf/stakeholder-networks-improving-seasonal-climate-forecasts-36oeavao2u.pdf

Stakeholder Networks: Improving Seasonal Climate Forecasts

http://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:8264/DroughtRiskforAgriculturalSystemsinSouthAfrica_META.pdf

Drought risk for agricultural systems in South Africa: drivers, spatial patterns, and implications for drought risk management

Since the devastating southern Africa drought of 1991/92 awareness has grown of the potential to better manage climate variability in the region through seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While other factors besides ENSO affect southern Africa’s climate, and climate forecasting for the region is not based exclusively on ENSO, a major El Nino beginning in 1997 captured the attention of policy-makers and the public. Awareness of drought risks associated with the 1997/98 event was greater than during previous El Nitos in 1991/92 and 1994/95. Mitigation and planning efforts also began earlier, with drought early warnings widely available and being taken seriously prior to the 1997/98 agricultural season. Actions taken include issuance of guidance to the public, on-going monitoring and preparedness efforts including the development of national preparedness plans in some countries, pre-positioning of food stocks, donor coordination, and greater reliance on the private-sector for meeting regional food needs. Although 1998 regional crop production was slightly below average, a major drought did not materialize. Nonetheless the experience is likely to ultimately strengthen capacity within the region to manage climate variability over the long term.

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information

Climate change in Africa: Issues and challenges in agriculture and water for sustainable development

Although climate variability is the single most important factor affecting the livelihood of the people of southern Africa, there is no country in which drought risk is managed well. This mission set out to determine whether the social and economic benefits from making use of long lead climate forecast techniques for managing drought risk in southern Africa would justify investment directed towards bringing forward the techniques into operational usage. The four person mission consulted a wide range of decision makers, weather information users and technical specialists in Botswana, Malawi, South Africa and Zimbabwe during the month of July 1995. The views of those consulted were markedly positive and convergent. Reliable drought prediction is a very high priority for the people and economies of southern Africa. The mission found that: while climates are always changing, southern Africa does indeed appear to be becoming increasingly drought affected; for many governments, people and purposes in the region, reliable indication of the quality of the next wet season is probably the most useful single item of information that could be provided; ongoing climate research is much closer than is generally appreciated to being able to provide reliable and timely information of this kind; It is not logical to wait for forecast skill to be 100% reliable before beginning to incorporate forecasts into decision making meteorological institutions in the region are not capable of realising the full potential of their global links in their present state: they need both investment and development; while improved long lead forecasts offer the prospect of significant benefits, these will not be fully realised without a number of concurrent developments across the economy. The mission concludes that relatively modest investment towards both improving climate prediction and strengthening information dissemination and uptake pathways could revolutionise drought risk 'management-enhancing economic responsibility, food security and natural resource management throughout the region. Benefits from the better management of strategic grain reserves alone would justify the necessary investment. The mission recommends that ODA, the World Bank and other development organisations recognise the important potential of these techniques for mitigating many of the effects of recurrent drought, and seek the means to ensure their broad multi-disciplinary implementation for maximum impact and benefit.

Drought risk management in southern Africa. The potential of long lead climate forecasts for improved drought management

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Drought risk management in southern Africa. The potential of long lead climate forecasts for improved drought management