. As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular
occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate
change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of
such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding
(e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have
investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the
effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been
accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess
the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage
systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios
through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage
model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood
volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe
enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected
meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban
flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the
volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e.
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban
flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation
intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 %
less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale
climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes.
Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and
local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that
local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing
future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community
relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment.
This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when
coping with future urban floods.

/pdf/impacts-of-future-climate-change-on-urban-flood-volumes-in-8hzi0vqxuk.pdf

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Ensuring reliable structural condition of sewers is an important criterion for sewer rehabilitation decisions. Deterioration models applied to sewer pipes support the rehabilitation planning by means of prioritising pipes according to their current and predicted structural status. There is a benefit in applying such models if sufficient inspection data for calibration, an appropriate deterioration model, and adequate covariates to explain the variability in the conditions are available. In this paper it is discussed up to what level the application of sewer deterioration models can be beneficial under limited data availability. The findings show that the indirect nature of the explanatory covariates which are commonly used in sewer deterioration models makes it difficult to harness any benefit from modelling sewer conditions at a network level, but that the deterioration model application still may be beneficial for prioritising inspection candidates. The prediction power of the current sewer deterioration models is limited by the adequacy of the explanatory variables available, and by the fact that different failure modes are mixed in the aggregated condition class, and not modelled explicitly.

Evaluating the role of deterioration models for condition assessment of sewers

RESUME La plupart des municipalites au Canada font face a des problemes lies a la deterioration des conduites d‟assainissement urbain. Le gouvernement du Quebec demande ainsi aux municipalites de pouvoir atteindre un taux de remplacement annuel de 1% afin de rencontrer les objectifs du plan national de l‟eau lance en 2002. Etant donne les contraintes budgetaires, les municipalites ne sont pas toujours en mesure d‟effectuer des inspections televisees (CCTV) afin de prevoir le moment d‟intervention dans leur reseau. De ce fait, il parait tout indique dans ce travail d‟elaborer un modele probabiliste devant permettre de determiner le niveau d‟operation et entretien des conduites. Base sur la regression logistique multinomiale, le modele montre la deterioration des conduites des differents materiaux en fonction du temps. Le modele developpe a permis de predire correctement dans 54% de cas la probabilite de transition impliquant une conduite a l‟etat 1(excellent) et 2 (bon) alors que 59% des cas ont ete predits avec succes pour les probabilites de transitions impliquant une conduite a l‟etat 3 (acceptable) pour deux municipalites du Quebec. Ce modele est suggere parmi d‟autres outils, pour aider les gestionnaires a anticiper le dysfonctionnement des reseaux.----------ABSTRACT Sewer deterioration is of concern in most municipalities in Canada in such a way that the provincial government of Quebec is asking for a renewal of those facilities at a 1% rate in order to meet the goals of the national water plan elaborated in 2002. Under already challenging budget constraints, those municipalities cannot always afford the use of CCTV inspections to prepare their intervention. This paper describes a probabilistic model which is proposed to help assess the current conduit‟ operational and maintenance condition. Based on the multinomial logistic regression, the model shows the temporal deterioration of conduits for different types of materials. This model was successfully applied to a case study in Quebec. On average, it predicted correctly 54% of outcomes for transition probabilities involving both condition classes 1 (excellent) and 2 (good) while 59% were correctly predicted for condition class 3 (fair). It is suggested among other tools to assist sewer system managers in anticipating failures.

Établissement des courbes de dégradation des conduites des réseaux sanitaires: Méthodologie et étude de cas à Verdun et Ste-Hyacinthe au Québec, Canada

The hydraulic capacity of deteriorating sewer systems.

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The hydraulic capacity of deteriorating sewer systems.