世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Multinational sales have grown at high rates over the last two decades, outpacing the remarkable expansion of trade in manufactures. Consequently, the trade literature has sought to incorporate the mode of foreign market access into the “new” trade theory. This literature recognizes that  rms can serve foreign buyers through a variety of channels: they can export their products to foreign customers, serve them through foreign subsidiaries, or license foreign  rms to produce their products. Our work focuses on the  rm’s choice between exports and “horizontal” foreign direct investment (FDI). Horizontal FDI refers to an investment in a foreign production facility that is designed to serve customers in the foreign market. Firms invest abroad when the gains from avoiding trade costs outweigh the costs of maintaining capacity in multiple markets. This is known as the proximity-concentration tradeoff. We introduce heterogeneous  rms into a simple multicountry, multisector model, in which  rms face a proximity-concentration trade-off. Every  rm decides whether to serve a foreign market, and whether to do so through exports or local subsidiary sales. These modes of market access have different relative costs: exporting involves lower  xed costs while FDI involves lower variable costs. Our model highlights the important role of within-sector  rm productivity differences in explaining the structure of international trade and investment. First, only the most productive  rms engage in foreign activities. This result mirrors other  ndings on  rm heterogeneity and trade; in particular, the results reported in Melitz (2003). Second, of those  rms that serve foreign markets, only the most productive engage in FDI. Third, FDI sales relative to exports are larger in sectors with more  rm heterogeneity. Using U.S. exports and af liate sales data that cover 52 manufacturing sectors and 38 countries, we show that cross-sectoral differences in  rm heterogeneity predict the composition of trade and investment in the manner suggested by our model. We construct several measures of  rm heterogeneity, using different data sources, and show that our results are robust across all these measures. In addition, we con rm the predictions of the proximityconcentration trade-off. That is,  rms tend to substitute FDI sales for exports when transport * Helpman: Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, Tel Aviv University, and CIAR (e-mail: ehelpman@harvard.edu); Melitz: Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Centre for Economic Policy Research (e-mail: mmelitz@ harvard.edu); Yeaple: Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104, and National Bureau of Economic Research (e-mail: snyeapl2@ssc.upenn.edu). The statistical analysis of  rmlevel data on U.S. Multinational Corporations reported in this study was conducted at the International Investment Division, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, under an arrangement that maintained legal con dentiality requirements. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily re ect those of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Elhanan Helpman thanks the NSF for  nancial support. We also thank Daron Acemoglu, Roberto Rigobon, Yona Rubinstein, and Dani Tsiddon for comments on an earlier draft, and Man-Keung Tang for excellent research assistance. 1 See Wilfred J. Ethier (1986), Ignatius Horstmann and James R. Markusen (1987), and Ethier and Markusen (1996) for models that incorporate the licensing alternative. We therefore exclude “vertical” motives for FDI that involve fragmentation of production across countries. See Helpman (1984, 1985), Markusen (2002, Ch. 9), and Gordon H. Hanson et al. (2002) for treatments of this form of FDI. 3 See, for example, Horstmann and Markusen (1992), S. Lael Brainard (1993), and Markusen and Anthony J. Venables (2000). 4 See also Andrew B. Bernard et al. (2003) for an alternative theoretical model and Yeaple (2003a) for a model based on worker-skill heterogeneity. James R. Tybout (2003) surveys the recent micro-level evidence on trade that has motivated these theoretical models. 5 This result is loosely connected to the documented empirical pattern that foreign-owned af liates are more productive than domestically owned producers. See Mark E. Doms and J. Bradford Jensen (1998) for the United States and Sourafel Girma et al. (2002) for the United Kingdom.

/pdf/export-versus-fdi-with-heterogeneous-firms-1uflan7r0h.pdf

Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms

We describe the theory and practice of real GDP comparisons across countries and over time. Effective with version 8, the Penn World Table (PWT) will be taken over by the University of California, Davis and the University of Groningen, with continued input from Alan Heston at the University of Pennsylvania. Version 8 will expand on previous versions of PWT in three respects. First, it will distinguish real GDP on the expenditure side from real GDP on the output side, which differ by the terms of trade faced by countries. Second, it will distinguish growth rates of GDP based on national accounts data from growth rates that are benchmarked in multiple years to cross-country price data. Third, data on capital stocks will be reintroduced. Some illustrative results from PWT version 8 are discussed, including new results that show how the Penn effect is not emergent but a stable relationship over time.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19255/w19255.pdf

The Next Generation of the Penn World Table

One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year) tended to have low growth rates during the subsequent period 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relationship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We also provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the 'Dutch Disease': the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors, both by directly bi ...

/pdf/booming-sector-and-de-industrialisation-in-a-small-open-exm5fa1nzq.pdf

Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy

On the basis of currency available information it seems reasonable to assume that European Monetary Union (EMU) will become a reality in the early years of the next century and that at least two of the EU's larger economies, Germany and France, will be participants. Unfortunately the same information set does not permit us to make any reasonable forecast of whether the UK will participate or not. This paper is concerned with the implications of Irish membership in a scenario which excludes its most important trading partner.

Punts, Pounds and Euros: In Search of an Optimum Currency Area

I explore the interactions between comparative, competitive and absolute advantage in a two-country model of oligopoly in general equilibrium. Comparative advantage always determines the direction of trade, but both competitive and absolute advantage affect resource allocation, trade patterns and trade volumes. Competitive advantage in the sense of more home firms drives foreign firms out of marginal sectors but also makes some marginal home sectors uncompetitive. Absolute advantage in the sense of a uniform fall in home costs tends to raise home output in all sectors but also leads both countries to specialise less in accordance with comparative advantage.

Competitive versus comparative advantage

The C.I.I.- E.S.R.I. Quarterly and Monthly Surveys of Business Attitudes: Methods and Uses

This side of paradox, or, in defence of the Correspondence Principle: a reply to Herberg and Kemp

We compare trade liberalization under Cournot and Bertrand competition in reciprocal markets. In both cases, the critical level of trade costs below which the possibility of trade aects the domestic rm’s behavior is the same; trade liberalization increases trade volume monotonically; and welfare follows a U-shaped pattern. However, welfare is usually greater under Bertrand than Cournot competition, despite the fact that for higher trade costs the volume of trade is greater under Cournot competition. In general, there exists a \Nimzowitsch Region" in parameter space, where welfare is higher under Bertrand competition even though no actual trade takes place.

When the threat is stronger than the execution: trade liberalization and welfare under oligopoly

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