世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

Multinational sales have grown at high rates over the last two decades, outpacing the remarkable expansion of trade in manufactures. Consequently, the trade literature has sought to incorporate the mode of foreign market access into the “new” trade theory. This literature recognizes that  rms can serve foreign buyers through a variety of channels: they can export their products to foreign customers, serve them through foreign subsidiaries, or license foreign  rms to produce their products. Our work focuses on the  rm’s choice between exports and “horizontal” foreign direct investment (FDI). Horizontal FDI refers to an investment in a foreign production facility that is designed to serve customers in the foreign market. Firms invest abroad when the gains from avoiding trade costs outweigh the costs of maintaining capacity in multiple markets. This is known as the proximity-concentration tradeoff. We introduce heterogeneous  rms into a simple multicountry, multisector model, in which  rms face a proximity-concentration trade-off. Every  rm decides whether to serve a foreign market, and whether to do so through exports or local subsidiary sales. These modes of market access have different relative costs: exporting involves lower  xed costs while FDI involves lower variable costs. Our model highlights the important role of within-sector  rm productivity differences in explaining the structure of international trade and investment. First, only the most productive  rms engage in foreign activities. This result mirrors other  ndings on  rm heterogeneity and trade; in particular, the results reported in Melitz (2003). Second, of those  rms that serve foreign markets, only the most productive engage in FDI. Third, FDI sales relative to exports are larger in sectors with more  rm heterogeneity. Using U.S. exports and af liate sales data that cover 52 manufacturing sectors and 38 countries, we show that cross-sectoral differences in  rm heterogeneity predict the composition of trade and investment in the manner suggested by our model. We construct several measures of  rm heterogeneity, using different data sources, and show that our results are robust across all these measures. In addition, we con rm the predictions of the proximityconcentration trade-off. That is,  rms tend to substitute FDI sales for exports when transport * Helpman: Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, Tel Aviv University, and CIAR (e-mail: ehelpman@harvard.edu); Melitz: Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Centre for Economic Policy Research (e-mail: mmelitz@ harvard.edu); Yeaple: Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104, and National Bureau of Economic Research (e-mail: snyeapl2@ssc.upenn.edu). The statistical analysis of  rmlevel data on U.S. Multinational Corporations reported in this study was conducted at the International Investment Division, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, under an arrangement that maintained legal con dentiality requirements. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily re ect those of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Elhanan Helpman thanks the NSF for  nancial support. We also thank Daron Acemoglu, Roberto Rigobon, Yona Rubinstein, and Dani Tsiddon for comments on an earlier draft, and Man-Keung Tang for excellent research assistance. 1 See Wilfred J. Ethier (1986), Ignatius Horstmann and James R. Markusen (1987), and Ethier and Markusen (1996) for models that incorporate the licensing alternative. We therefore exclude “vertical” motives for FDI that involve fragmentation of production across countries. See Helpman (1984, 1985), Markusen (2002, Ch. 9), and Gordon H. Hanson et al. (2002) for treatments of this form of FDI. 3 See, for example, Horstmann and Markusen (1992), S. Lael Brainard (1993), and Markusen and Anthony J. Venables (2000). 4 See also Andrew B. Bernard et al. (2003) for an alternative theoretical model and Yeaple (2003a) for a model based on worker-skill heterogeneity. James R. Tybout (2003) surveys the recent micro-level evidence on trade that has motivated these theoretical models. 5 This result is loosely connected to the documented empirical pattern that foreign-owned af liates are more productive than domestically owned producers. See Mark E. Doms and J. Bradford Jensen (1998) for the United States and Sourafel Girma et al. (2002) for the United Kingdom.

/pdf/export-versus-fdi-with-heterogeneous-firms-1uflan7r0h.pdf

Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms

We describe the theory and practice of real GDP comparisons across countries and over time. Effective with version 8, the Penn World Table (PWT) will be taken over by the University of California, Davis and the University of Groningen, with continued input from Alan Heston at the University of Pennsylvania. Version 8 will expand on previous versions of PWT in three respects. First, it will distinguish real GDP on the expenditure side from real GDP on the output side, which differ by the terms of trade faced by countries. Second, it will distinguish growth rates of GDP based on national accounts data from growth rates that are benchmarked in multiple years to cross-country price data. Third, data on capital stocks will be reintroduced. Some illustrative results from PWT version 8 are discussed, including new results that show how the Penn effect is not emergent but a stable relationship over time.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19255/w19255.pdf

The Next Generation of the Penn World Table

One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year) tended to have low growth rates during the subsequent period 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relationship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We also provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the 'Dutch Disease': the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors, both by directly bi ...

/pdf/booming-sector-and-de-industrialisation-in-a-small-open-exm5fa1nzq.pdf

Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy

The binding of this item renders some marginal text unreadable. The original photocopying quality of this item renders some text unreadable

/pdf/export-subsidies-and-national-welfare-3ntxk3f8my.pdf

Export subsidies and national welfare

These are the opening words of a lecture by one of the greatest economists of the century, John Maynard Keynes, entitled "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren." It was delivered in 1930, at the lowest point of the British Great Depression. Yet Keynes's words seem to catch the mood of 1984 just as accurately as they caught that of 1930, in spite of the enormous economic progress since then. Is our current economic pessimism justified? What lessons for economic policy can be learned from our past experience? And what measures could be taken to improve the economic possibilities for ourselves and for our grandchildren? In trying to answer these questions this evening, I want to relate my discussion to the general theme of these lectures: the ways in which political independence for the twenty-six counties since 1922 has interacted with continuing dependence on foreign events and ideas. I want to suggest that, especially in the economic sphere, a failure to recognise this dependence what I will call "economic nationalism" has been responsible for many of our mistakes of economic policy mistakes that could have been avoided. Economic nationalism can take many forms, but in Ireland the first which comes to mind is summed up by the phrase "Sinn Fein." At least when first used by Arthur Griffith in the 1900s, this phrase stood to a considerable extent for a basic economic principle: that self-sufficiency was the route to economic development. Griffith argued that Ireland's economic decline in the 19th century was caused by the Union with Britain; that the opening of Irish markets to British firms had wiped out whole sectors of Irish industry and prevented the establishment of others; and that the only route to industrial development was to impose tariffs on imports and so encourage the growth of Irish firms protected from foreign competition. Nowadays, many economists and historians would disagree with this simplified view of history. But it was readily accepted by Griffith's followers; economic nationalism became a central part of the policies of the Sinn Fein movement; and, though neglected by the Cumann na nGaedheal governments of the 1920s, it was wholeheartedly adopted by the Fianna Fail governments from 1932 onwards,

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/30059552.pdf

The Failure of Economic Nationalism

Changes in product characteristics on the extensive margin are an important and hitherto neglected dimension of quality change. Standard techniques for quality-adjusting price indices cannot handle such changes satisfactorily, which leads to an economically and statistically significant bias in the measurement of prices and real output. We combine theoretical insights from index numbers and demand for characteristics to develop a new method for incorporating changes on the extensive characteristic margin. Applied to data on new car sales in the U.K., our method leads to revisions in estimated inflation rates for this commodity group that are both plausible and quantitatively important.

New Characteristics and Hedonic Price Index Numbers

In this paper we consider the case for subsidies towards firms which generate RD RD and international spillovers which benefit foreign firms may justify a subsidy, even though the government cares only about the profits of home firms.

R&D Spillovers and the Case for Industrial Policy in an Open Economy

I introduce a utility-consistent benchmark for international comparisons of real income, the GAIA (‘Geary-Allen International Accounts’) System. It coincides with the Geary method (which underlies the Penn World Table) when preferences are Leontief and with the EKS method (favoured by OECD) when preferences are homogeneous quadratic. The Geary method seems preferable since it gives a (possibly poor) approximation to a consistent set of international comparisons, whereas the EKS method gives a good approximation to an inconsistent set. An illustrative empirical application, using estimates of a QUAIDS demand system, suggests that both methods impose excessive ‘convergence’ on the data.

True Multilateral Indexes for International Comparisons of Real Income: Theory and Empirics

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