An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations.

/pdf/climate-change-impacts-on-groundwater-recharge-uncertainty-10vblapjnl.pdf

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge-uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?

Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 x 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 x 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.

/pdf/a-regional-multi-sectoral-and-integrated-assessment-of-the-3v4y8kypjf.pdf

A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Methodology

Stratifications are made to divide environmental gradients into convenient units and then to use these as areas in which objects and variables might have relatively consistent characteristics. Statistical classification is a useful approach for obtaining this insight into complex environmental patterns and help to simplify heterogeneity. Traditional classifications of the environment are mostly subjective and based on expert knowledge. They are largely intended for descriptive purposes. Present day techniques now allow for continent wide statistically based environmental stratifications that can be applied consistently throughout Europe. Such environmental stratifications can provide the basis for assessment and monitoring biodiversity, land cover and land use and be a starting point for reporting on the European environment. The stratification presented here allows upscaling and downscaling, if needed to reach specified objectives. It can be applied in environmental reporting. Its application as a framework for land cover estimation is elaborated using Portuguese Land cover data.

Objectives and applications of a statistical Environmental stratification of Europe

This article describes results from a simulation model of rural land use, focusing on how the relative advantages of imitative and nonimitative approaches to land use selection change under different circumstances. It is shown that the success of "imitation" depends in quite complex ways on the type of imitation used, the strategies of other agents with which the imitator is interacting, and aspects of the heterogeneity of the environment.

Imitative versus nonimitative strategies in a land-use simulation

The ultimate impact of climate change on human systems will depend on the natural resilience of ecosystems on which societies rely as well as on adaptation measures taken by agents, individually and collectively. No sector of the economy is more reliant on climate than agriculture. Evidence from the American settlement process suggests that societies can successfully adapt to new climatic environments. Whether and how much agriculture will manage to adapt to a changing climate remains an open question in the empirical economics literature, however. This article reviews the existing evidence on weather and/or climate impacts on agricultural outcomes from the economics literature, with a focus on methodological questions. Some key econometric issues associated with climate impact measurement are discussed. We also outline important questions that have not been adequately addressed and suggest directions for future research.

/pdf/identifying-the-economic-impacts-of-climate-change-on-56ia1uxb0i.pdf

Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a means by which an integrated assessment can be made of global and regional effects on land use of climate change. This is achieved by use of data on the effects of climate change on world food prices as inputs to a regional land use allocation model. Data on world prices are drawn from a recent global study of climate change and crop yields. In a case study of England and Wales a land allocation model is used to infer changes of land use that are the product of the integrated effect of climate-induced global price changes and climate-related changes of yield in England and Wales. This combination of changed prices and yield potential is used to calculate the land use providing the highest returns for each of 155,235 1 km2 cells of land in England and Wales for a future assumed for the year 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environment with climate change. The difference between these two is then treated as an estimated effect resulting from climate change.

Integrating global and regional analyses of the effects of climate change: A case study of land use in England and Wales

The potential effects of climate change on agricultural land use in any given region are likely to stem as much from the response of the world food system to global climate change as to specific changes in climate in that region. To achieve this level of analysis requires evaluation of inputs at the regional level but within a global price environment. This, in turn, requires the development of a hierarchy of land use/climate models. In this paper we employ results of a global analysis of the sensitivity of world food prices to climate change, using these as inputs to a regional land use allocation model, in order to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on regional patterns of land use.

Climate Change and Land Use: Global and Regional Analyses

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Integrating global and regional analyses of the effects of climate change: A case study of land use in England and Wales

Climate Change and Land Use: Global and Regional Analyses