Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979-2013

The rate of wind-aided firespread (v{sub f}) across an array of very-small-diameter, discrete fuel elements is sought, as a step toward predicting the advance in time of a firefront though either strewn debris in a heavily-blast-damaged scenario or through brush-and-grass-type wildlands. Here, the quasisteady rate (if one exists) is sought for conditions under which there is both (1) a wind whose mean speed U is constant and whose direction is constant, and (2) a horizontal bed with a macroscopically uniform fuel distribution. M is the mass of fuel (per unit planform area of the bed) consumed with firefront passage; here the fuel elements are thin, so the fuel consumed is identical with the fuel loading initially present, if fire propagates at all. Laboratory-scale experiments in a specially dedicated firetunnel, with supplementary approximate analysis, are reported. Extensive testing suggests that (v{sub f}) varies with sq root of U/m over a wide range of the parameters U and m. Only if the thin-fuel loading m approaches the rather large value of very roughly 2 g/sq cm is radiative transfer likely to play a role comparable to that of convection/diffusion for preheating.

Wind-aided firespread across arrays of discrete fuel elements. Technical report, 26 September 1986-31 August 1989

Implications of data smoothing on experimental mass loss rates

Quaking aspen is found in western forests of the United States and is currently at risk of loss due to conifer competition at within-stand scales. Wildfires in these forests are impactful owing to conifer infilling during prolonged fire suppression post-Euro-American settlement. Here, restoration cuttings seek to impact wildfire behavior and aspen growing conditions. In this study, we explored how actual and hypothetical cuttings with a range of conifer removal intensity altered surface fuel and overstory structure at stand and fine scales. We then simulated wildfires, examining fire behavior and effects on post-fire forest structures around aspen trees. We found that conifer removal constrained by lower upper diameter limits (<56 cm) had marginal effects on surface fuel and overstory structure, likely failing to enhance resource conditions sufficiently to sustain aspen. Increasing the diameter limit also led to a higher likelihood of fire spread and a higher rate of spread, owing to greater within-canopy wind speed, though crown fire activity decreased. Our simulations suggest heavier treatments could facilitate reintroduction of fire while also dampening the effects of wildfires on forest structure. Cutting specifications that relax diameter limits and remove a substantial portion of conifer overstory could better promote aspen restoration and mitigate fire hazard.

/pdf/simulated-fire-behavior-and-fine-scale-forest-structure-5d5ujx91iv.pdf

Simulated fire behavior and fine-scale forest structure following conifer removal in aspen-conifer forests in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Due to socio-economic and climatic changes around the world, large outdoor fires in the built environment have become one of the global issues that threaten billions of people. The devastating effects of them are indicative of weaknesses in existing building codes and standard testing methodologies. This is due in part to our limited understanding of large outdoor fire exposures, including the ones from wildland to communities and within communities. To address this problem, the Ignition Resistance Committee (IRC) of the International Association of the Fire Safety Science working group 'Large Outdoor Fires and the Built Environment' was established. This manuscript is the result of one of the IRC's initiatives to review current knowledge on exposures associated with large outdoor fires, identify existing knowledge gaps, and provide recommendations for future research. The article consists of two sections: the wildland fire exposure to the built environment and the settlement fire exposure to structures. Each section presents a comprehensive review of experimental and numerical studies of exposure mechanisms (flame contact and convection, radiation, and firebrands). The review concludes with a discussion on data consistency and existing knowledge gaps to highlight future directions for each of the three fire exposure mechanisms. 

A review of thermal exposure and fire spread mechanisms in large outdoor fires and the built environment

https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/journals/pnw_2019_morandini001.pdf

Experimental investigation of flammability and numerical study of combustion of shrub of rockrose under severe drought conditions

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Experimental investigation of flammability and numerical study of combustion of shrub of rockrose under severe drought conditions