In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

IDENTIFICATION AND INFERENCE FOR ECONOMETRIC MODELS ESSAYS IN HONOR OF THOMAS ROTHENBERG PDF Are you looking for Ebook identification and inference for econometric models essays in honor of thomas rothenberg PDF? You will be glad to know that right now identification and inference for econometric models essays in honor of thomas rothenberg PDF is available on our online library. With our online resources, you can find identification and inference for econometric models essays in honor of thomas rothenberg or just about any type of ebooks, for any type of product.

Identification and Inference for Econometric Models: Essays in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg

A Theory of Capitalist Regulation: The U.S. Experience

Michel Agier’s Managing the Undesirables is one of several texts that addresses the complex and proliferating humanitarian infrastructure that is increasingly prevalent in regions of the world besieged by violence and displacement, but his work stands out as particularly important and innovative. Agier addresses some of the central questions facing our world today: belonging, personhood, and the ability of those most cut off from political power to speak for themselves and shape their own lives, and he does so in a way that combines passion and keen observation. In doing so, his work should be of interest to a broad range of sociologists who study social inequality and the structures (even those built from the best of intentions) that perpetuate it. In this volume, Agier explores the concept of humanitarian government, the political apparatus set up during emergency situations that takes responsibility for the life and death of individuals no longer protected adequately by a state. For as Agier shows, a refugee camp is far more than a place of shelters and emergency food aid. They are places in which someone decides who gets plastic sheeting and who does not, who receives food rations and for how long, what social programs should be put into place and who should be in charge of them, and what barriers need to be constructed (barbed wired, armed guards, cinderblock walls) to ostensibly protect those inside but also to protect the local population from incursions of these displaced ‘‘undesirables.’’ Further, these ‘‘camps’’ are hardly temporary shelters; many have existed for decades, taking on the appearance of towns and cities with entrepreneurs setting up small businesses and political elites emerging from the post-flight chaos. And yet, the camp is a hybrid social form, taking the shape of something entirely new from what existed before in the lives of its inhabitants, and as Agier convincingly argues, it exists in a state of exception, outside the bounds of the political and social life that humanitarian law and human rights ostensibly guarantee. Agier uses his ethnologist’s eye for culture to analyze observations he made during fieldwork in refugee camps in Kenya, Zambia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea between 2000-2007, accessing the camps through Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF; in English, Doctors Without Borders). His affiliation with MSF gave him a level of flexibility and independence (particularly from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees) that allowed him sufficient time in the camps to not only observe humanitarian government at work but also the response of the refugees under its purview. He combines his observations with detailed histories of different migrations, explaining the historical and geographic paths that led different groups of refugees to the camps that he studied. Agier demonstrates the discursive power that humanitarian organizations have over defining and categorizing the displaced individuals in the camps; defining a person’s status as a refugee leads to acceptance into the camp and the security that brings, but the denial of such status leads to rejection and often deportation back to life-threatening circumstances. Once determined as a refugee, a person’s suffering and vulnerability come to define their place in the camp and the world, with moral hierarchies created around different definitions of vulnerability with different access to resources provided by the humanitarian organization. This process, Agier argues, de-socializes refugees; they lose their individual personhood and either become ahistorical, pitiable masses that the charitable-at-heart seek to keep alive, or potential threats to order and the safety of the non-displaced that must be managed or

Capitalizing on Crisis: The Political Origins of the Rise of Finance

Lal Jayawardena: Preface Stephen A. Marglin: Lessons of the golden age: an overview Andrew Glyn, Alan Hughes, Alan Lipietz, & Ajit Singh: The rise and fall of the golden age Gerald Epstein, & Juliet Schor: Macropolicy in the rise and fall of the golden age Stephen A. Marglin & Amit Bhaduri: Profit squeeze and Keynesian theory Samuel Bowles, & Robert Boyer: A wage-led employment regime: income distribution, labour discipline, and aggregate demand in welfare capitalism Bob Rowthorn, & Andrew Glyn: The diversity of unemployment experience since 1973 Masahiko Aoki: A new paradigm of work organization and co-ordination: lessons from Japanese experience.

The golden age of capitalism : reinterpreting the postwar experience

We provide novel insights on the functional distribution of income in the postwar US economy, based on a Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition of the labor share by 14 sectors. We identify contributions from four components: real compensation, labor productivity, employment shares, and relative prices. The results are presented for the entire period as well as golden age (1948–1979) and neoliberal era (1979–2017), painting a detailed picture of structural changes. We find that (1) real compensation and labor productivity dominate; (2) manufacturing plays an important role in the recent decline of the labor share; (3) employment shifts toward service sectors with higher labor shares have buffered the decline; and (4) relative prices of services are increasing. We discuss these results in the context of Baumol’s and Lewis’s seminal contributions. Both theories build on the notion of coexistence of progressive and stagnant activities, which is documented in our sectoral decomposition.

/pdf/the-decline-of-the-us-labor-share-across-sectors-2eu7opeolz.pdf

The Decline of the US Labor Share Across Sectors

This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin’s seminal 1967 chapter titled “A growth cycle.” We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite signif-icant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share in a counter-clockwise cycle in the activity-labor share plane. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ stan-dard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle for the US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-`a-vis current debates: (1) we consider a financial cycle, to rebut the theoretical possibility of “pseudo-Goodwin” cycles, (2) demonstrate that a suppressed labor share and stagnation are com-patible with short run Goodwin cycles, and argue that this link presents the way forward for research on secular stagnation.

/pdf/the-distributive-cycle-evidence-and-current-debates-4cod0rfx1e.pdf

The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates

The wage led aggregate demand hypothesis is examined for the United Kingdom over the period 1971 - 2007. Existing studies disagree on the aggregate demand regime for the UK, and this appears to be due to differing empirical approaches. Studies relying on equation-by-equation estimation procedures tend to find support for wage led aggregate demand in the UK, while the single study using systems estimation finds no support for the hypothesis. In order to resolve this incongruity, we test the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis in the UK using VAR models estimated on quarterly data. We use a liberal partial identification strategy based on movements in real earnings rather than in the labour share. The results provide support for the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis during the period of study.

/pdf/wage-led-aggregate-demand-in-the-united-kingdom-1sz7u11lsu.pdf

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The ratio of financial to nonfinancial profits in the U.S. economy has risen greatly during the last four decades, a period often called the financialization of capitalism, but the reasons ...

The historic rise of financial profits in the U.S. economy

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The Decline of the US Labor Share Across Sectors

The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates

The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The historic rise of financial profits in the U.S. economy