Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

/pdf/taking-climate-model-evaluation-to-the-next-level-40797qtb6b.pdf

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/213670/1/whoalgoritm.pdf

Who learns better Bayesian network structures: Accuracy and speed of structure learning algorithms

We construct the networks of the surface temperature field for El Niño and for La Niña years and investigate their structure. We find that the El Niño network possesses significantly fewer links and lower clustering coefficient and characteristic path length than the La Niña network, which indicates that the former network is less communicative and less stable than the latter. We conjecture that because of this, predictability of temperature should decrease during El Niño years. Here we verify that indeed during El Niño years predictability is lower compared to La Niña years.

Topology and predictability of El Nino and La Nina networks

Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change. The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches. Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set of climate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. We demonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway for process-oriented model evaluation. Models with fingerprints closer to observations better reproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indian subcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expected model interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our network metrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climate change as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself. Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain longstanding uncertainties in climate change projections. Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections.

/pdf/causal-networks-for-climate-model-evaluation-and-constrained-404nl1ybte.pdf

Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections.

E-commerce applications rely heavily on session-based recommendation algorithms to improve the shopping experience of their customers. Recent progress in session-based recommendation algorithms shows great promise. However, translating that promise to real-world outcomes is a challenging task for several reasons, but mostly due to the large number and varying characteristics of the available models. In this paper, we discuss the approach and lessons learned from the process of identifying and deploying a successful session-based recommendation algorithm for a leading e-commerce application in the home-improvement domain. To this end, we initially evaluate fourteen session-based recommendation algorithms in an offline setting using eight different popular evaluation metrics on three datasets. The results indicate that offline evaluation does not provide enough insight to make an informed decision since there is no clear winning method on all metrics. Additionally, we observe that standard offline evaluation metrics fall short for this application. Specifically, they reward an algorithm only when it predicts the exact same item that the user clicked next or eventually purchased. In a practical scenario, however, there are near-identical products which, although they are assigned different identifiers, they should be considered as equally-good recommendations. To overcome these limitations, we perform an additional round of evaluation, where human experts provide both objective and subjective feedback for the recommendations of five algorithms that performed the best in the offline evaluation. We find that the experts’ opinion is oftentimes different from the offline evaluation results. Analysis of the feedback confirms that the performance of all models is significantly higher when we evaluate near-identical product recommendations as relevant. Finally, we run an A/B test with one of the models that performed the best in the human evaluation phase. The treatment model increased conversion rate by 15.6% and revenue per visit by 18.5% when compared with a leading third-party solution.

From the lab to production: A case study of session-based recommendations in the home-improvement domain

Recommender systems are an integral part of eCommerce services, helping to optimize revenue and user satisfaction. Bundle recommendation has recently gained attention by the research community since behavioral data supports that users often buy more than one product in a single transaction. In most cases, bundle recommendations are of the form "users who bought product A also bought products B, C, and D". Although such recommendations can be useful, there is no guarantee that products A, B, C, and D may actually be related to each other. In this paper, we address the problem of collection recommendation, i.e., recommending a collection of products that share a common theme and can potentially be purchased together in a single transaction. We extend on traditional approaches that use mostly transactional data by incorporating both domain knowledge from product suppliers in the form of hierarchies, as well as textual attributes from the products. Our approach starts by combining product hierarchies together with transactional data or domain knowledge to identify candidate sets of product collections. Then, it generates the product collection recommendations from these candidate sets by learning a deep similarity model that leverages textual attributes. Experimental evaluation on real data from the Home Depot online retailer shows that the proposed solution can recommend collections of products with increased accuracy when compared to expert-crafted collections.

Product collection recommendation in online retail

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From the lab to production: A case study of session-based recommendations in the home-improvement domain

Product collection recommendation in online retail