The leopard's (Panthera pardus) broad geographic range, remarkable adaptability, and secretive nature have contributed to a misconception that this species might not be severely threatened across its range. We find that not only are several subspecies and regional populations critically endangered but also the overall range loss is greater than the average for terrestrial large carnivores. To assess the leopard's status, we compile 6,000 records at 2,500 locations from over 1,300 sources on its historic (post 1750) and current distribution. We map the species across Africa and Asia, delineating areas where the species is confirmed present, is possibly present, is possibly extinct or is almost certainly extinct. The leopard now occupies 25-37% of its historic range, but this obscures important differences between subspecies. Of the nine recognized subspecies, three (P. p. pardus, fusca, and saxicolor) account for 97% of the leopard's extant range while another three (P. p. orientalis, nimr, and japonensis) have each lost as much as 98% of their historic range. Isolation, small patch sizes, and few remaining patches further threaten the six subspecies that each have less than 100,000 km(2) of extant range. Approximately 17% of extant leopard range is protected, although some endangered subspecies have far less. We found that while leopard research was increasing, research effort was primarily on the subspecies with the most remaining range whereas subspecies that are most in need of urgent attention were neglected.

https://www.panthera.org/cms/sites/default/files/peerj_1974.pdf

Leopard (Panthera pardus) status, distribution, and the research efforts across its range

SUMMARY Optimal control theory is employed to derive explicitly the optimal (profit-maximizing) price of a durable new product over time. The sales rate dynamics depends on the product price and on the unsold portion of the market. Specifically, the hazard rate (i.e. the probability of a purchase by a new customer) increases as the price decreases in a linear fashion. It is shown that both the price and sales rate decline over time for finite horizon problems with or without discounting. In the discounted infinite horizon case, the price remains constant over time. When there is no discounting in the infinite horizon case, there does not exist an optimal solution. However, it is possible in this case to attain a profit level which is arbitrarily close to the theoretical, albeit unattainable, maximum level profit. Economic interpretations are provided for the various quantities that arise in the course of solving the optimal pricing problem. Copyright # 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal pricing in a hazard rate model of demand

Optimal control theory is employed to derive explicitly the optimal (profit maximizing) price of a durable new product over time. The sales rate dynamics depends on the product price and on the unsold portion of the market. Specifically, the hazard rate (i.e. the probability of a purchase by a new customer) increases as the price decreases in a linear fashion. It is shown that both the price and sales rate decline over time for finite horizon problems with or without discounting In the discounted infinite horizon case, the price remains constant over time. When there is no discounting in the infinite horizon case, there does not exist an optimal solution. However, it is possible in this case to attain a profit level which is arbitrarily close to the theoretical, albeit unattainable, maximum level profit. Economic interpretations are provided for the various quantities that arise in the course of solving the optimal pricing problem.

Optimal Pricing in a Hazard Rate Model of Demand

Foreword by Akihiko Tanaka Introduction 1. Japan's ODA 1954-2014: Changes and Continuities in a Central Instrument in Japan's Foreign Policy Hiroshi Kato 2. Japan's Engagement with Multilateral Development Banks: Do Their Professional Paths Really Cross? Kiyoshi Kodera PART I: ORIGIN AND INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION OF JAPAN'S BILATERAL ODA 3. Origins of Japanese Aid Policy-Post-war Reconstruction, Reparations and World Bank Projects Ryo Fujikura and Mikiyasu Nakayama 4. Japan's Foreign Aid: Institutional Change and Shifting Policy Directions Purnendra Jain 5. The Political Economy of Japan's Aid Policy Trajectory: With Particular Reference to the Changes and Continuity under the ODA Charter Yasutami Shimomura 6. The Benefits of Unification Failure: Re-examining the Evolution of Economic Cooperation in Japan Jin Sato PART II: JAPAN, ASIA AND AFRICA: ADAPTING AID TO CHANGING CONTEXTS 7. The East Asian Miracle and Development Policy: A Twenty-Year Retrospective John Page 8. Japan, Korea, and China: Styles of ODA in East Asia Barbara Stallings and Eun Mee Kim 9. Policies and Practices of China's Foreign Aid: A Comparison with Japan Meibo Huang 10. Japan's Official Development Assistance to sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns, Dynamics and Lessons Scarlett Cornelissen PART III: INSTRUMENTS AND FOOTPRINTS 11. Catalyzing Transformation for Inclusive Growth Akio Hosono 12. Revisiting Policy-based Financing: Experiences of Japan, Asia and Other Countries, and Their Relevance to the post-2015 Development Agenda Kazuto Tsuji 13. Embracing Human Security: New Directions of Japan's ODA for the 21st Century Sachiko G. Kamidohzono, Oscar A. Gomez and Yoichi Mine 14. Japan Overseas Cooperation Volunteers: Its Genesis and Development Yasunobu Okabe PART IV: JAPAN AND THE MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS 15. Japan and the United Nations: Its Past, Present and Future Sukehiro Hasegawa 16. The World Bank and Japan Yoshiaki Abe and Shigeo Katsu 17. OECD-DAC and Japan: Its Past, Present and Future Richard Manning PART V: QUO VADIS: THE EAST ASIAN ODA MODEL AND THE POST-2015 DEVELOPMENT AGENDA 18. Lessons for Japanese Foreign Aid from Research on Aid's Impact Tony Addison and Finn Tarp 19. New Actors, New Instruments, New Priorities: Towards a Sustainable Development Transformation Homi Kharas and Julie Biau 20. NGOs and Japan's ODA: Critical Views and Advocacy Masaaki Ohashi 21. Japan's Foreign Assistance at 60: Reflecting on the Past and Looking to the Future Hiroshi Kato, John Page and Yasutami Shimomura

Japan's development assistance : foreign aid and the post-2015 agenda

The advent of the 3G world of mobile commerce has suffered from the wait‐and‐see mode over the last years. Existing barriers pose a challenge to all actors in the mobile commerce industry (MCI). Learning from the future and discovering a route to a desired future are keys to successful mobile commerce business. In this paper we argue that it is very important that all actors in the MCI use an industry foresight approach in order to discover a successful route to future markets. We present a framework for creating industry foresights and for understanding the future of mobile commerce. We focus on the mobile commerce industry as a whole and introduce two broad variables; (1) adoption and diffusion of mobile commerce products and services; and (2) the macro‐economic development trend. Based on these variables we build four foresight scenarios: Rapid‐Up, Rapid‐Down, Slow‐Down and Slow‐Up. On the basis of these four different scenarios we suggest some features of promising mobile commerce products and services. We are using information‐gathering agents in order to collect information for our analysis. The foresight framework will help all actors understand the future for m‐commerce.

A foresight framework for understanding the future of mobile commerce

Africa is at a critical inflection point. After decades of disappointing performance a combination of sound macro policies and a commodity price bonanza has led to a dramatic and long overdue surge in African growth rates and concomitant improvement in social indicators. This impressive performance has now created its own challenge for African leadership-the heightened aspirations of their own people and the expectation of the world at large. And responding to this challenge will definitely require more than staying the course-more of the same will not work. It will require bold and tenacious pursuit of multifaceted policies and initiatives that will call for intellectual integrity and single?minded determination combined with political courage at home and statesmanship abroad. It is in this context that the experience of the other emerging markets economies may provide pointers as African leaders grapple with the complex multidimensional issues of not just maintaining but accelerating economic growth, prosperity and well?being of their populace. To set the stage for defining the opportunities and the promise that can lie ahead, this report sets out alternative scenarios of what the outcomes could be but not predictions of what they will be. This study also outlines a framework and action agenda that can deliver Africa's promise. Contributors to this volume - Mahmood Ayub is a Senior Associate with Centennial International Group in Washington, DC.; Anupam Basu is a Senior Associate with Centennial Group International; James Bond is an independent financial advisor specializing in energy and infrastructure in emerging economies; Fantu Cheru is a Distinguished Research Associate at the North-South Institute (Ottawa, Canada), Senior Research Fellow at the Center for African Studies at Leiden University (The Netherlands), and Emeritus Professor of African and Development Studies at American University in Washington, DC.; David DeGroot is a Research Scholar in the New York University Urbanization Project and currently leads, under the direction of Solly Angel, the Urban Expansion Project in Ethiopia; Jose Fajgenbaum is the Director of Centennial Group, Latin America; Birger Fredriksen is a consultant on education policies in developing countries; Jean-Pierre Guengant holds a PhD in development economics and a master's degree in demography; Harpaul Alberto Kohli is the Manager of Information Analytics at Centennial Group International and the Emerging Markets Forum, where he is responsible for all modeling, statistics, databases, and technology management; Claudio M. Loser is CEO and President of Centennial Latin America and is Advisor for the Emerging Markets Forum. Loser is also a Senior Fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue; John May, a specialist in population policies and programs, is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Population Reference Bureau (PRB); John Murray McIntire is currently Deputy Director General for Integrated Sciences at the International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi; Serge Michailof is currently an Associate Researcher at the Institut de Relations Internationale et Strategique (IRIS) in Paris; Praful Patel holds an MA (urban settlements) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a former Vice President of The World Bank and currently with Centennial Group International serving as their Vice President for Africa; Jeffrey Racki has worked in both the private and public sectors in technical and management positions dealing with housing, urban development, local government, and service delivery; Graham Stegmann is currently an independent consultant on international development; Tomonori Sudo is a Senior Research Fellow at the JICA Research Institute currently conducting research on environment and climate change issues. He is also a member of the OECD/DAC Environment and Development Cooperation Network.

Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential

In the past several years, researchers have started to notice successful products whose sales patterns show rapidly declining diffusion patterns. These products include certain movies, computer software, TV game software, music CDs, etc. (e.g., Windows95 (up grade version), Final Fantasy, Terminator 2; Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996, Yamada et al. 1997, Moe and Fader 1998). These declining diffusion patterns have been rather neglected in the field of marketing (Bass 1969) because they were regarded as being peculiar to unsuccessful products, even though before Bass (1969), Fourt and Woodlock (1960) predicted first purchases of grocery products by an exponential model and in theory Lekvall and Wahlbin (1973) raised the possibility of various diffusion patterns from a bell-shaped one (logistic model) to a rapidly declining one (modified exponential model) using a mixed model similar to the Bass diffusion model. Also after Bass (1969), Gatignon and Robertson (1985) discussed the same possibility with 29 propositions. Generally speaking, however, there were no such studies that include rapidly declining diffusion patterns until recently except for the above studies (e.g., Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Yamada et al. 1997; Moe and Fader 1998). However, the relative importance of the entertainment industry or contents industry and IT-related industry has become greater due to the growth of the "networked" society. We believe that it is time to take a closer look at these products showing rapidly declining diffusion patterns from product classification and diffusion theory points of view. Establishing a conceptual model of adoption and diffusion process of a new product, we proposed the third "high involvement" adoption model. We call such a product as an eagerly wanted product and define it as anything that can be offered to a market to satisfy an eager want or need. Then we establish operational hypotheses to test the conceptual hypothesis that an eagerly wanted product should take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern from the beginning. We tested the following operational hypotheses on sales patterns of 254 new popular music CDs including albums and singles sold in one of the national chains of convenience stores in Japan. Common practice of music CD consumers in Japan is that they first rent single CDs and then buy albums. H1: A popular music album CD is an eagerly wanted product, that is, its diffusion pattern is rapidly declining. H2: The fraction of rapidly declining diffusion patterns for album CDs is greater than that for single CDs. H3: Sales pattern of a new singer's debut single CD does not take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern. H4: The sales pattern of a debut single of a new group or a singer produced through a well-designed process is a rapidly declining one. We also tested sales patterns of new products of beer and low malt liquor as additional evidence to H2 and H3, because new beer products may be anticipated through promotional efforts but may not be awaited as eagerly as CD albums. We obtained favorable results on all four hypotheses. As an implication of this study, a set of strategies for product development and introduction for an eagerly wanted product is proposed: (1) One should let consumers be involved from the development stage (the outset); for example (a) the ASAYAN project of TV Tokyo (see Section 4.2); (b) the use of famous artists, movie stars, and directors; (c) creating a series etc. (2) Before the introduction of a new product, its promotion and publicity should be done as intensively and widely as possible in the target market. Use media mix, etc. (3) The initial price should be set at the most reasonable level possible or free if possible. (4) To obtain a large potential market quickly, make as many business alliances as possible.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID310586_code020503600.pdf?abstractid=310586&mirid=1&type=2

A Conceptual Model for Adoption and Diffusion Process of a New Product and an Eagerly Wanted Product

In the past several years, researchers have started to notice successful products whose sales patterns show rapidly declining diffusion patterns These products include certain movies, computer software, TV game software, music CDs, etc (eg, Windows95 (up grade version), Final Fantasy, Terminator 2; Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996, Yamada et al 1997, Moe and Fader 1998) These declining diffusion patterns have been rather neglected in the field of marketing (Bass 1969) because they were regarded as being peculiar to unsuccessful products, even though before Bass (1969), Fourt and Woodlock (1960) predicted first purchases of grocery products by an exponential model and in theory Lekvall and Wahlbin (1973) raised the possibility of various diffusion patterns from a bell-shaped one (logistic model) to a rapidly declining one (modified exponential model) using a mixed model similar to the Bass diffusion model Also after Bass (1969), Gatignon and Robertson (1985) discussed the same possibility with 29 propositions Generally speaking, however, there were no such studies that include rapidly declining diffusion patterns until recently except for the above studies (eg, Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Yamada et al 1997; Moe and Fader 1998) However, the relative importance of the entertainment industry or contents industry and IT-related industry has become greater due to the growth of the "networked" society We believe that it is time to take a closer look at these products showing rapidly declining diffusion patterns from product classification and diffusion theory points of view Establishing a conceptual model of adoption and diffusion process of a new product, we proposed the third "high involvement" adoption model We call such a product as an eagerly wanted product and define it as anything that can be offered to a market to satisfy an eager want or need Then we establish operational hypotheses to test the conceptual hypothesis that an eagerly wanted product should take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern from the beginning We tested the following operational hypotheses on sales patterns of 254 new popular music CDs including albums and singles sold in one of the national chains of convenience stores in Japan Common practice of music CD consumers in Japan is that they first rent single CDs and then buy albums H1: A popular music album CD is an eagerly wanted product, that is, its diffusion pattern is rapidly declining H2: The fraction of rapidly declining diffusion patterns for album CDs is greater than that for single CDs H3: Sales pattern of a new singer's debut single CD does not take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern H4: The sales pattern of a debut single of a new group or a singer produced through a well-designed process is a rapidly declining one We also tested sales patterns of new products of beer and low malt liquor as additional evidence to H2 and H3, because new beer products may be anticipated through promotional efforts but may not be awaited as eagerly as CD albums We obtained favorable results on all four hypotheses As an implication of this study, a set of strategies for product development and introduction for an eagerly wanted product is proposed: (1) One should let consumers be involved from the development stage (the outset); for example (a) the ASAYAN project of TV Tokyo (see Section 42); (b) the use of famous artists, movie stars, and directors; (c) creating a series etc (2) Before the introduction of a new product, its promotion and publicity should be done as intensively and widely as possible in the target market Use media mix, etc (3) The initial price should be set at the most reasonable level possible or free if possible (4) To obtain a large potential market quickly, make as many business alliances as possible

/pdf/a-conceptual-model-for-adoption-and-diffusion-process-of-a-29075cow6q.pdf

A Conceptual Model for Adoption and Diffusion Process of A New Product

In the past several years, researchers have started to notice successful products whose sales patterns show rapidly declining diffusion patterns. These products include certain movies, computer software, TV game software, music CDs, etc. (e.g., Windows95 (up grade version), Final Fantasy, Terminator 2; Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996, Yamada et al. 1997, Moe and Fader 1998). These declining diffusion patterns have been rather neglected in the field of marketing (Bass 1969) because they were regarded as being peculiar to unsuccessful products, even though before Bass (1969), Fourt and Woodlock (1960) predicted first purchases of grocery products by an exponential model and in theory Lekvall and Wahlbin (1973) raised the possibility of various diffusion patterns from a bellshaped one (logistic model) to a rapidly declining one (modified exponential model) using a mixed model similar to the Bass diffusion model. Also after Bass (1969), Gatignon and Robertson (1985) discussed the same possibility with 29 propositions. Generally speaking, however, there were no such studies that include rapidly declining diffusion patterns until recently except for the above studies (e.g., Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Yamada et al. 1997; Moe and Fader 1998). However, the relative importance of the entertainment industry or contents industry and IT-related industry has become greater due to the growth of the “networked” society. We believe that it is time to take a closer look at these products showing rapidly declining diffusion patterns from product classification and diffusion theory points of view. Establishing a conceptual model of adoption and diffusion process of a new product, we proposed the third “high involvement” adoption model. We call such a product as an eagerly wanted product and define it as anything that can be offered to a market to satisfy an eager want or need. Then we establish operational hypotheses to test the conceptual hypothesis that an eagerly wanted product should take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern from the beginning. We tested the following operational hypotheses on sales patterns of 254 new popular music CDs including albums and singles sold in one of the national chains of convenience stores in Japan. Common practice of music CD consumers in Japan is that they first rent single CDs and then buy albums. H1: A popular music album CD is an eagerly wanted product, that is, its diffusion pattern is rapidly declining. H2: The fraction of rapidly declining diffusion patterns for album CDs is greater than that for single CDs. H3: Sales pattern of a new singer’s debut single CD does not take a rapidly declining diffusion V. 1.1.1 Revised July 2001 3 pattern. H4: The sales pattern of a debut single of a new group or a singer produced through a welldesigned process is a rapidly declining one. We also tested sales patterns of new products of beer and low malt liquor as additional evidence to H2 and H3, because new beer products may be anticipated through promotional efforts but may not be awaited as eagerly as CD albums. We obtained favorable results on all four hypotheses. As an implication of this study, a set of strategies for product development and introduction for an eagerly wanted product is proposed: (1) One should let consumers be involved from the development stage (the outset); for example (a) the ASAYAN project of TV Tokyo (see Section 4.2); (b) the use of famous artists, movie stars, and directors; (c) creating a series etc. (2) Before the introduction of a new product, its promotion and publicity should be done as intensively and widely as possible in the target market. Use media mix, etc. (3) The initial price should be set at the most reasonable level possible or free if possible. (4) To obtain a large potential market quickly, make as many business alliances as possible. (

/pdf/new-product-and-eagerly-wanted-product-adoption-and-4awcrmapv1.pdf

New Product and Eagerly Wanted Product Adoption and Diffusion Processes: A Conceptual Model**

Arab world is essentially an urban society, whose typical examples are the primate capital cities in the Arab countries. In case of Amman, the capital of Jordan, it grew rapidly with the economic development in recent decades, and currently has 40% of national population. Its spatial expansion took place without urban planning, and is associated with many social and economic problems. However, the singularity of Amman is in its development in relation to migration. Since the independence of Jordan in 1946, Amman has accommodated the refugees and migrants that flowed into whenever wars and conflicts occurred in the Middle East. As such, Jordan is one of the most important buffer states in the Middle Eastern politics. There are few empirical studies based on statistical data on Amman urban society, and detailed studies that focus attentions on its spatial transformation are rare. Our paper aims at providing the basic information concerning the socioeconomic situations in Amman based on the data derived from the Amman Household Survey 2008, in view of the future research on the urban development of Amman. Originality of our paper lies in setting 'district' (liwa') as a base of analysis. By doing so, we categorize the 'districts' from socioeconomic point of view, and clarifies the socioeconomic characteristics of 'districts' which reflect the close relationship between social structuring and migration from inside and outside Jordan.

Urban Society of Amman - Report of the Amman Household Survey 2008

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