1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

We address the strengths and weaknesses of the main available measures of political regime and extend the dichotomous regime classification first introduced in Alvarez et al. (Stud. Comp. Int. Dev. 31(2):3–36, 1996). This extension focuses on how incumbents are removed from office. We argue that differences across regime measures must be taken seriously and that they should be evaluated in terms of whether they (1) serve to address important research questions, (2) can be interpreted meaningfully, and (3) are reproducible. We argue that existing measures of democracy are not interchangeable and that the choice of measure should be guided by its theoretical and empirical underpinnings. We show that the choice of regime measure matters by replicating studies published in leading journals.

/pdf/democracy-and-dictatorship-revisited-2oo9paz4n2.pdf

Democracy and dictatorship revisited

data are becoming quite common in political science and provide numerous opportunities for theory testing and development. Unfortunately this type of data typically generates a number of statistical problems, of which clustering is particularly impor? tant. To exploit the opportunities of? fered by multilevel data, and to solve the statistical problems inherent in them, special statistical techniques are required. In this article, we focus on a technique that has become popular in educational statistics and sociology?multilevel analysis. In multilevel analysis, researchers build models that capture the layered structure of multilevel data, and determine how layers interact and impact a dependent variable of interest. Our objective in this article is to introduce the logic and statistical theory behind multilevel models, to illustrate how such models can be applied fruitfully in political science, and to call atten? tion to some of the pitfalls in multilevel analysis.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3088424.pdf

Modeling Multilevel Data Structures

Economic conditions shape election outcomes in the world's democracies. Good times keep parties in office, bad times cast them out. This proposition is robust, as the voluminous body of research reviewed here demonstrates. The strong findings at the macro level are founded on the economic voter, who holds the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot box. Although voters do not look exclusively at economic issues, they generally weigh those more heavily than any others, regardless of the democracy they vote in.

Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes

Many fear that democracies are suffering from a legitimacy crisis. This book focuses on 'democratic deficits', reflecting how far the perceived democratic performance of any state diverges from public expectations. Pippa Norris examines the symptoms by comparing system support in more than fifty societies worldwide, challenging the pervasive claim that most established democracies have experienced a steadily rising tide of political disaffection during the third-wave era. The book diagnoses the reasons behind the democratic deficit, including demand (rising public aspirations for democracy), information (negative news about government) and supply (the performance and structure of democratic regimes). Finally, Norris examines the consequences for active citizenship, for governance and, ultimately, for democratization. This book provides fresh insights into major issues at the heart of comparative politics, public opinion, political culture, political behavior, democratic governance, political psychology, political communications, public policymaking, comparative sociology, cross-national survey analysis and the dynamics of the democratization process.

Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited

The economy being the key to presidential popularity, what is the economic intelligence inspiring the approval judgments of American voters? According to one school of thought, the public relies on the current performance of the economy (the retrospective voter), while a rival makes the case for expectations about the future economy (the prospective voter). I conduct a time-series analysis combining consumer surveys and presidential approval polls (1960-1993). The results unequivocally reject the prospective claim and confirm the retrospective one. Depending on the measure used, economic expectations either prove too sensitive to political interventions (change in the White House, wars, and scandals) to shape presidential approval; or else, economic expectations do no more than encapsulate information about the current state of the economy. The research bears out the wisdom and the fairness of the retrospective calculus. To judge a president's performance in office is not a question about things to come b...

Presidents and the Prospective Voter

Britain under the government of Prime Minister Thatcher provides a unique opportunity to probe the effects of both war and macroeconomic performance on government popularity Monthly ratings for Thatcher and Conservative-party support (June 1979 to July 1985) are examined by way of Box-Tiao intervention models The model that best captures the impact of the Falklands War of 1982 is of the gradual-temporary variety: popularity gains accrued through the three-month war shrink in a geometric fashion Nevertheless, they prove to be worth over five percentage points for the Conservative party a year later, in the 1983 election Macroeconomic performance, meanwhile, is found to have an asymmetric effect on government popularity, with unemployment strongly significant but inflation not significant at all Apparently, the British public is punishing failure (on employment) while letting success (on inflation) go unrewarded Qualifications of the positive effect of war and the negative effect of macroeconomic performance are suggested

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1962685.pdf

Guns and Butter and Government Popularity in Britain

From Argentina to Zambia: a world-wide test of economic voting

Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher, and the British Voter

With one party in charge of the presidency and the other one in charge of Congress, how are American voters supposed to allocate credit and blame for the government's economic performance? The following solutions are proposed and tested: Hung Jury, where voters refuse to render an economic judgment on either president or Congress; Split Verdict, where voters reach separate judgments depending on whichever party is in control of a given branch; President Liable, where the electorate solves the responsibility problem by singling out the President and absolving Congress; and Congress Liable, with the roles of president and Congress reversed. The results show that the President Liable model wins easily under varying configurations of divided government as well as economic conditions. Divided government poses no noticeable obstacle for retrospective voting on the economy.

Divided Government and Economic Voting

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