Abstract Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 . 

/pdf/the-challenge-of-unprecedented-floods-and-droughts-in-risk-3nvpwv5e.pdf

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted at minimizing negative societal and economic impacts. Forecasts at daily and seasonal scale are vital for early warning, estimation of event frequency for hydraulic design, and long‐term projections for developing adaptation strategies to future conditions. All three types of predictions—forecasts, frequency estimates, and projections—typically treat droughts and floods independently, even though both types of extremes can be studied using related approaches and have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common to drought and flood prediction and their joint assessment and (b) discuss tractable approaches to tackle these challenges. We group challenges related to flood and drought prediction into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling and prediction, and human–water interactions. Data‐related challenges include data availability and event definition. Process‐related challenges include the multivariate and spatial characteristics of extremes, non‐stationarities, and future changes in extremes. Modeling challenges arise in frequency analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, and hydraulic modeling. Challenges with respect to human–water interactions lie in establishing links to impacts, representing human–water interactions, and science communication. We discuss potential ways of tackling these challenges including exploiting new data sources, studying droughts and floods in a joint framework, studying societal influences and compounding drivers, developing continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, and obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one or several of these challenges will improve flood and drought predictions and help to minimize the negative impacts of extreme events.

Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

This special issue of Participatory Learning and Action focuses on recent approaches to climate change adaptation which are community-based and participatory, building on the priorities, knowledge, and capacities of local people. It discusses how community-based approaches to climate change have emerged, and the similarities and differences between CBA and other participatory development and disaster risk reduction approaches. It highlights innovative participatory methods which are developin...

Community-based adaptation to climate change

Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen...

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708

Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

The semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil represent one of the most densely populated regions of the country. Rainfall variability together with land degradation and large-scale poverty in rural areas makes this region vulnerable to droughts. Most of the agriculture in this region is rainfed and deficient rainfall leads to severe drought impacts. In this review, we examine different short- and long-term strategies directed to cope with possible impacts of droughts proposed by the government, farmers, civil society, and the private sector. These are approaches to adaptation to drought in the Northeast of Brazil, and among them, we have agricultural management and soil conservation and better management of water resources. Other actions include seasonal climate forecasts and funds transfer and credits to affected small-scale farmers. Although some of these actions are for the short term and may help to survive the drought situation, they may be only postdisaster mitigation options that do not improve adaptive capacity. They favor maladaptation and create dependency of farmers to government actions. Some experiences such as AdaptaSertao show potential benefits for small-scale farmers. We identify key challenges for moving toward a more holistic risk management approach and highlight the need to integrate actions and tools for adaptation, combining technology-based solutions with in-depth knowledge of local and regional social, economic, and cultural aspects, among them seasonal climate forecasts and drought impacts studies, among some other proactive predisaster ways, rather than reactive postdisaster actions. Adaptation strategies must increase long-term resilience of food production in the Brazilian Northeast, going beyond an individual drought event.

Drought in Northeast Brazil: A review of agricultural and policy adaptation options for food security

https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/121898945/The_need_to_integrate_flood_and_drought_disaster_risk_reduction_strategies.pdf

The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies

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The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies