The x-minute city: Measuring the 10, 15, 20-minute city and an evaluation of its use for sustainable urban design

Bespreking van: P. Hall,The Polycentric Metropolis. Learning from Mega-city Regions in Europe. : ,2006

The Polycentric Metropolis. Learning from Mega-city Regions in Europe

This paper integrates and extends many of the concepts of accessibility deriving from Hansen’s (1959) seminal paper, and develops a theory of access that generalizes from the particular measures of access that have become increasingly common Access is now measured for a particular place by a particular mode for a particular purpose at a particular time in a particular year General access is derived as a theoretical ideal that would be measured for all places, all modes, all purposes, at all times, over the lifecycle of a project It is posited that more general access measures better explain spatial location phenomena

/pdf/towards-a-general-theory-of-access-vxgu3032uc.pdf

Towards a general theory of access

The 15-minute city for all? – Measuring individual and temporal variations in walking accessibility

This paper presents a causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities metropolitan area Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900-1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using this data It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close connections with real estate business, and people's reliance on the streetcar for mobility Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribution and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and significantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 meters (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a significant extent

How Streetcars Shaped Suburbanization: Granger-Causality Analysis of Land Use and Transit in the Twin Cities

Ensemble forecasting is a modeling approach that combines data sources, models of different types, with alternative assumptions, using distinct pattern recognition methods. The aim is to use all available information in predictions, without the limiting and arbitrary choices and dependencies resulting from a single statistical or machine learning approach or a single functional form, or results from a limited data source. Uncertainties are systematically accounted for. Outputs of ensemble models can be presented as a range of possibilities, to indicate the amount of uncertainty in modeling. We review methods and applications of ensemble models both within and outside of transport research. The review finds that ensemble forecasting generally improves forecast accuracy, robustness in many fields, particularly in weather forecasting where the method originated. We note that ensemble methods are highly siloed across different disciplines, and both the knowledge and application of ensemble forecasting are lacking in transport. In this paper we review and synthesize methods of ensemble forecasting with a unifying framework, categorizing ensemble methods into two broad and not mutually exclusive categories, namely combining models, and combining data; this framework further extends to ensembles of ensembles. We apply ensemble forecasting to transport related cases, which shows the potential of ensemble models in improving forecast accuracy and reliability. This paper sheds light on the apparatus of ensemble forecasting, which we hope contributes to the better understanding and wider adoption of ensemble models.

The ensemble approach to forecasting: A review and synthesis

Transit accessibility to jobs (the ease of reaching a place of work by public transport) affects both residential location and commute mode choice, resulting in gradations of residential land-use intensity and transit (public transport) patronage. We propose a scaling model explaining much of the variation in transit use—the number of transit commuters per km2—and residential land-use intensity with transit accessibility. We find that locations with high transit accessibility consistently have more riders and higher residential density; transit systems that provide greater accessibility and with a larger base for patronage have proportionally greater ridership increase per unit of accessibility. All 48 metropolitan statistical areas in our sample have a scaling factor less than 1, so a 1% increase in access to jobs produces a less than 1% increase in transit riders; the largest cities therefore have higher scaling factors than smaller cities, indicating returns to scale. The models, derived from a new database of transit accessibility measured for every minute of the peak period over 11 million US census-blocks, and estimated for 48 major cities across the United States, find that the number of jobs reachable within 45 minutes of the rider’s base most affect transit rider density. The findings support the idea that transit investment should focus on mature, well-developed regions. Cities not only develop their transit networks, but are shaped by them in return. This study teases out the effects of public transportation, finding that there is a scale effect for urban areas to benefit from transit investment.

/pdf/how-transit-scaling-shapes-cities-3lgm4pbf4y.pdf

How transit scaling shapes cities

Polycentricity, or the number of central urban places, is commonly measured by location-based metrics (e.g. employment density/total number of workers, above a threshold). While these metrics are g...

Measuring polycentricity via network flows, spatial interaction and percolation:

All ridership is local: Accessibility, competition, and stop-level determinants of daily bus boardings in Portland, Oregon

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