Storm-event analysis (SEA) is a method of extracting information from rainfall data by defining rainfall events as storm events. A profile-based model in SEA defines storm events using the ...

Cluster Analysis of Hourly Rainfalls Using Storm Indices in Peninsular Malaysia

Non-climatic reasons, such as station replacement and changing the measurement device and calculation method, may make climate data unrepresentative of the actual variation of the regional climate. Data quality control and homogenization tests for climate data are critical. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the quality and homogeneity level of precipitation time series in arid and semi-arid climatic zones and specify the breakpoint in the datasets. The proposed methodology has been used to conduct arid and semi-arid representative case studies comprising 40 annual precipitation series for Iraq between 1979 and 2014. A Box-Cox transformation has been used to adjust the non-normally distributed datasets. Outliers have been censored by truncating extreme values. The results of the outliers indicate that they may be caused more by climate variability than by human-induced reasons. Homogeneity adjustments have been developed by applying these four homogeneity tests: Pettitt’s test, the Standard Normal Homogeneity method, Buishand’s test, and von Neumann’s check. Approximately 40% of the series (i.e., 16 stations out of 40) were homogeneous. Each homogeneity test was evaluated separately, and non-homogeneous stations were identified. Then, the series was classified into three groups that were assigned the labels “useful,” “doubtful”, and “suspect.” The results indicated that twenty-one stations were associated with the class ‘suspect’, three of the stations belonged to the class ‘doubtful’, and sixteen locations were within the class ‘useful’. Furthermore, the data analysis indicated no influence of the outliers on the results of the homogeneity tests. Accordingly, the study recommends further research on homogeneity tests that can be applied without considering outlier tests for similar case studies.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/197/pdf?version=1675071087

Quality Control and Homogeneity Analysis of Precipitation Time Series in the Climatic Region of Iraq

Improving streamflow simulation in Dongting Lake Basin by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic models and considering water yields in data-scarce areas

/pdf/identification-of-the-most-suitable-probability-distribution-3acmzbd9wo.pdf

Identification of the most suitable probability distribution models for monthly and annual rainfall series in Güzelyurt Region, Northern Cyprus

Abstract One of the most perilous natural hazards is flooding resulting from dam failure, which can devastate downstream infrastructure and lead to significant human casualties. In recent years, the frequency of flash floods in the northern part of Nicosia, Cyprus, has increased. This area faces increased risk as it lies downstream of the Kanlikoy Dam, an aging earth-fill dam constructed over 70 years ago. In this study, we aim to assess potential flood hazards stemming from three distinct failure scenarios: piping, 100-year rainfall, and probable maximum precipitation (PMP). To achieve this, HEC-HMS hydrologic model findings were integrated into 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic models to simulate flood hydrographs and generate flood inundation and hazard maps. For each scenario, Monte Carlo simulations using McBreach software produced four hydrographs corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 90%, 50%, 10%, and 1%. The results indicate that all dam breach scenarios pose a significant threat to agricultural and residential areas, leading to the destruction of numerous buildings, roads, and infrastructures. Particularly, Scenario 3, which includes PMP, was identified as the most destructive, resulting in prevailing flood hazard levels of H5 and H6 in the inundated areas. The proportion of inundated areas in these high hazard levels varied between 52.8% and 57.4%, with the number of vulnerable structures increasing from 248 to 321 for exceedance probabilities of 90% and 1%, respectively. Additionally, the number of flooded buildings ranged from 842 to 935, and 26 to 34 km of roads were found to be inundated in this scenario. These findings revealed the need for authorities to develop comprehensive evacuation plans and establish an efficient warning system to mitigate the flood risks associated with dam failure. 

Probabilistic modeling of dam failure scenarios: a case study of Kanlikoy Dam in Cyprus

A regional frequency analysis using L-moments was performed with time series clustering approaches to identify homogeneous regions using dynamic data sets in Northern Cyprus. In this contex...

Regional Frequency Analysis of Precipitation Using Time Series Clustering Approaches

Over the past few decades, flood disasters have emerged as the predominant natural hazard in Cyprus, primarily driven by the escalating influence of climate change in the Mediterranean region. In view of this, the objective of this study is to develop a geospatial flood risk map for the island of Cyprus by considering 14 flood hazard factors and five flood vulnerability factors, utilizing geographic information systems (GIS) and remotely sensed datasets. A comparative assessment was conducted for hazard mapping, employing statistical methods of frequency ratio (FR) and FR Shannon's entropy (FR-SE), and multi-criteria decision analysis method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP). The main findings indicated that the FR method exhibited the highest predictive capability, establishing it as the most suitable approach for flood hazard mapping. Additionally, vulnerability factors were aggregated using F-AHP to generate the vulnerability map. The resulting flood risk map, which is the product of flood hazard and flood vulnerability, revealed that 9% of the island was located within highly risky regions, while 13.2% was classified as moderate risk zones. Spatial analysis of these high-risk areas indicated their concentration in the primary city districts of the island. Therefore, to mitigate future risks within these cities, an analysis of potential expansion zones was conducted, identifying the best-suited zone exhibiting the lowest risk. The generated flood risk map can serve as a valuable resource for decision-makers on the island, facilitating the integration of flood risk analysis into urban management plans. 

A geospatial analysis of flood risk zones in Cyprus: insights from statistical and multi-criteria decision analysis methods.

Effect of model data availability on scour risk of bridges

Changes in precipitation and flow regimes may cause more catastrophic floods in the future. This study examines the trends in a subbasin of Bartin Stream in the Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey, and questions the influence of non-stationarity by performing flood frequency analyses on one stationary and nine non-stationary models by incorporating the covariates of time and annual precipitation as a linear function of their location and scale parameters. In this context, variabilities in annual precipitation, (AP), mean annual flow (MAF), and maximum daily flow (MDF), of five precipitation gauging stations and four streamflow gauging stations were examined using the Mann-Kendall and modified Mann-Kendall tests, and Sen’s slope estimator. The breakpoints were identified in the series by employing homogeneity tests, and the relative changes before and after the shifts were analyzed. The modified Mann-Kendall showed a significantly increasing trend at Bartin precipitation station, with an increase of 0.69 mm/year, and significant decreasing trends at Cide and Ulus precipitation stations, with a rate of change 7.10 mm/year and 3.26 mm/year, respectively, at the 5% significance level. Moreover, significant downward trends were detected at Kocairmak station (MAF varied 0.33 m3/s/year and MDF varied 4.55 m3/s/year); at Kocanaz station (MAF varied 0.04 m3/s/year); and at Bayiryuzu station (MDF varied 1.49 m3/s/year). The greatest relative changes in MAF and MDF were found at Kocairmak station, which can be considered as an indicator of non-stationarity. Thus, a non-stationary frequency analysis of the MDF series at Kocairmak station was performed, and the best-fitting model was found to use the AP series as a covariate, the same as other streamflow stations in the basin. In all stations, the non-stationary design flood quantiles were estimated to be greater than the stationary ones by up to 30%, which should be taken into account, particularly for designing flood mitigation facilities. 

Investigation of Trends and Nonstationarity in Hydrologic Variables in the Western Black Sea Basin, Turkey

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