Anthrax is a highly fatal zoonotic disease that affects all species of livestock. The study aims to develop an early warning of epidemiological anthrax using machine learning (ML) models and to study the effect of El Niño and La Niña oscillation, as well as the climate–disease relationship concerning the spatial occurrence and outbreaks in Karnataka. The disease incidence data are divided based on El Niño and La Niña events from 2004–2019 and subjected to climate-disease modeling to understand the disease pattern over the years. Machine learning models were implemented using R statistical software version 3.1.3 with Livestock density, soil profile, and meteorological and remote sensing variables as risk factors associated with anthrax incidence. Model evaluation is performed using statistical indices, viz., Cohen’s kappa, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, true skill statistics (TSS), etc. Models with good predictive power were combined to develop an average prediction model. The predicted results were mapped onto the Risk maps, and the Basic reproduction numbers (R0) for the districts that are significantly clustered were calculated. Early warning or risk prediction developed with a layer of R0 superimposed on a risk map helps in the preparedness for the disease occurrence, and precautionary measures before the spread of the disease.

https://www.mdpi.com/2813-0227/2/4/22/pdf?version=1671193320

A New Methodology to Comprehend the Effect of El Niño and La Niña Oscillation in Early Warning of Anthrax Epidemic Among Livestock

Anthrax, a zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans globally, is caused by 

Comprehensive Spatial-Temporal and Risk Factor Insights for Optimizing Livestock Anthrax Vaccination Strategies in Karnataka, India

Objectives: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Soon, it has spread out across the world and become an ongoing pandemic. In Bangladesh, the first case of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was detected on March 8, 2020. Since then, not many significant studies have been conducted to understand the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh.

Methods: The data of daily confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh and the reported values of generation time of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for Singapore and Tianjin, China, were collected. We calculated the basic reproduction number R0 by applying the exponential growth (EG) method. Epidemic data of the first 76 days and different values of generation time were used for the calculation.

Results: The basic reproduction number R0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is estimated to be 2.66 [95% CI: 2.58-2.75], optimized R0 is 2.78 [95% CI: 2.69-2.88] using generation time 5.20 with a standard deviation of 1.72 for Singapore. Using generation time 3.95 with a standard deviation of 1.51 for Tianjin, China, R0 is estimated to be 2.15 [95% CI: 2.09-2.20], optimized R0 is 2.22 [95% CI: 2.16-2.29].

Conclusions: The calculated basic reproduction number R0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is significantly higher than 1, which indicates its high transmissibility and contagiousness.

/pdf/estimation-of-the-basic-reproduction-number-of-sars-cov-2-in-2ursoxxz3h.pdf

Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh Using Exponential Growth Method

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Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh Using Exponential Growth Method