Over the past three decades the effects of globalization and denationalization have created a division between ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Western Europe. This study examines the transformation of party political systems in six countries (Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK) using opinion surveys, as well as newly collected data on election campaigns. The authors argue that, as a result of structural transformations and the strategic repositioning of political parties, Europe has observed the emergence of a tripolar configuration of political power, comprising the left, the moderate right, and the new populist right. They suggest that, through an emphasis on cultural issues such as mass immigration and resistance to European integration, the traditional focus of political debate - the economy - has been downplayed or reinterpreted in terms of this new political cleavage. This new analysis of Western European politics will interest all students of European politics and political sociology.

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West European Politics in the Age of Globalization

Economic conditions shape election outcomes in the world's democracies. Good times keep parties in office, bad times cast them out. This proposition is robust, as the voluminous body of research reviewed here demonstrates. The strong findings at the macro level are founded on the economic voter, who holds the government responsible for economic performance, rewarding or punishing it at the ballot box. Although voters do not look exclusively at economic issues, they generally weigh those more heavily than any others, regardless of the democracy they vote in.

Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes

Introduction: Explaining the EU Political System PART I: GOVERNMENT Executive Politics Legislative Politics Judicial Politics PART II: POLITICS Public Opinion Democracy, Parties and Elections Interest Representation PART III: POLICY-MAKING Regulation of the Single Market Expenditure Policies Economic and Monetary Union Citizen Freedom and Security Policies Foreign Policies Conclusions: Rethinking the European Union Appendix: Decision-making Procedures of the European Union Bibliography

The political system of European Union

Figures Tables Preface The authors Introduction 1. Confronting the puzzles of voter turnout 2. A new approach to the calculus of voting 3. The role of generational replacement in turnout change 4. Rational responses to electoral competition 5. Explaining turnout change in 22 countries 6. Electoral competition and the individual citizen 7. Understanding turnout decline 8. The turnout puzzles revisited Appendices: A. The surveys employed in this book B. Aggregate data for established democracies, 1945-9 C. Supplementary findings Bibliography Author index Subject index.

/pdf/voter-turnout-and-the-dynamics-of-electoral-competition-in-3qpidmrkxz.pdf

Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945

With the recent acceleration of the integration process of the European Union there has been a rise in political parties expressing either scepticism or outright criticism of the nature of the integration process. Using a four-fold differentiation between single issue, protest, established parties and factions within parties, the first part of the article presents an overview of Euroscepticism within EU member states and Norway. This reveals the diversity of sources of Euroscepticism both in ideology and in the types of parties that are Eurosceptical but with a preponderance of protest parties taking Eurosceptical positions. The second part of the article is an attempt to map Euroscepticism in West European party systems through a consideration of ideology and party position in the party system. The conclusions are that Euroscepticism is mainly limited to parties on the periphery of their party system and is often there used as an issue that differentiates those parties from the more established parties which are only likely to express Euroscepticism through factions. Party based Euroscepticism is therefore both largely dependent on domestic contextual factors and a useful issue to map emergent domestic political constellations.

A touchstone of dissent: Euroscepticism in contemporary Western European party systems

The 2002 parliamentary election in the Netherlands will always be associated with the name of Pim Fortuyn. His murder only nine days before the election was the first political assassination in the Netherlands in more than 300 years. The sudden success of the new party he had founded, coupled with the major losses for the Labour and Liberal parties, made this an historic election. This article attempts to understand the motivations of the voters at this election, in particular the voters of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF). It is first shown that the conventional wisdom, which assumes voting based on religion and social class, and voting along ideological issue lines, has lost its ability to explain voter behaviour in the Netherlands. An explanation based on retrospective economic voting is also rejected. The success of the LPF is accounted for by the popularity of Fortuyn and his appeal among those who had cynical attitudes towards government or who were dissatisfied with the performance of the incumbent government. The popularity of Fortuyn is shown to have been related to political issues, in particular those relating to asylum seekers and the integration of foreigners in the country.

Never a dull moment: Pim Fortuyn and the Dutch parliamentary election of 2002

A commonly heard explanation of the results of the May 2002 parliamentary election is that the vote changes occurred because of a shift to the right within the electorate. Previously published results are summarized here to show that this hypothesis must be rejected. Instead, a second hypothesis is formulated which explains the vote shifts in terms of the new calculations that voters were forced to make when a new, credible party entered the electoral marketplace. The analysis here presents empirical support for this hypothesis by demonstrating that voters were aware of the positions taken by the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF), especially on those issues that Pim Fortuyn had placed at the forefront of the political agenda. Voters clearly saw the LPF as a party of the right on these issues. The positions that are perceived to have been taken by the electorate in the eyes of the voter are as important as the positions taken by the voters themselves in understanding the May 2002 results.

In the Eye of the Beholder: The Perception of the List Pim Fortuyn and the Parliamentary Elections of May 2002

Voter expectations concerning the outcome of an election on the performance of a party or candidate have come to play an increasingly important role in the study of voting behavior. Whenever there are more than two candidates or parties, the voter may base his decision not only on his own preference but on expectations of what other voters will do. In studying voting behavior in U.S. presidential primaries, researchers have introduced the terms "viability" and "electability," which are both related to how well the candidates will be able to appeal to other voters (Abramowitz 1987, 1989; Bartels 1988; Brady and Johnston 1987). If an individual perceives that his preferred candidate or party is not viable or electable, he may choose to support one that he thinks will do better (see Broughton 1995; Teer and Spence 1973). All forms of strategic or tactical voting involve calculations of this kind (see Catt 1996). If expectations are central to vote decisions, it becomes as important to investigate the source of these expectations as to study the vote decision itself. The same types of consideration, in particular questions of the reasonableness or rationality of the vote decision, apply. For example, some researchers have argued that expectations are acquired cognitively (e.g., based on polls), while others claim that they are affective (i.e., wishful thinking). Researchers have really only begun to investigate the importance of expectations in the vote decision, and the literature on the sources of expectations is thus still rather limited. The main concern has been whether voters derive their expectations from public opinion polls or from other sources. The strongest empirical evidence that identifies polls as the source of expectations is the

According to the Polls: The Influence of Opinion Polls on Expectations

What are they Waiting for? Strategic Information for Late Deciding Voters

Strategic electoral considerations under proportional representation

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